Return to Baseball Leftovers

Are Walks Good or Bad in 5x5?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby chadlincoln » Fri May 26, 2006 4:50 pm

garf112 wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:They don't help. Your guys walks, next guy gets out, you have nothing to show for it. Your guy gets a single, next guy strikes out, you then have something to show for it in average. I guess it's better than 0-1, but doesn't directly help at all.


You can't say they don't help period.

They obviously help in runs scored. I'm sure you've had a guy at 0-0 with one run (and maybe even a sb) before.

There might be a slight correlation between bb and hr.

I don't think bb's have much to do with average or RsBi.
Walks do not help you in 5X5. SB's help you. Scoring runs helps you. Walks alone don't help you. Hits alone help you, unlike walks.
chadlincoln
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb Supporter
Posts: 10983
Joined: 20 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Bleachers at Wrigley Field

Postby chadlincoln » Fri May 26, 2006 4:57 pm

garf112 wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:
garf112 wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:They don't help. Your guys walks, next guy gets out, you have nothing to show for it. Your guy gets a single, next guy strikes out, you then have something to show for it in average. I guess it's better than 0-1, but doesn't directly help at all.


You can't say they don't help period.

They obviously help in runs scored. I'm sure you've had a guy at 0-0 with one run (and maybe even a sb) before.

There might be a slight correlation between bb and hr.

I don't think bb's have much to do with average or RsBi.
Walks do not help you in 5X5. SB's help you. Scoring runs helps you. Walks alone don't help you. Hits alone help you, unlike walks.


See post above.

Stop contradicting me just to contradict me. If you don't think a spike in walk rate has any effect on a player Rs, HRs, RBIs, SB, BA, that's fine. But don't just say "walks don't help in 5X5." Everyone knows that, and no one was trying to make that point.
I'm not trying to contradict you. Walks alone do not help. That's the point I made. Get over yourself.
chadlincoln
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb Supporter
Posts: 10983
Joined: 20 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Bleachers at Wrigley Field

Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri May 26, 2006 4:57 pm

garf112 wrote:When you say "plate discipline", you are also bringing K's into the conversation. Obviously, a decline in Ks= an increase in BA. Again, aging studies play this out. As players get older, they strike out less, walk more and hit more home runs.


I think you're definitely right on track with what the aging studies show us and I think there's been some regression analysis done that shows a correlation between plate discipline and hr rates irrespective of player's age. The question becomes whether that completely, partially or does not negate the fact that walking takes away all chance of hitting a home run in that plate appearance. I tend to think it's somewhere in the middle but it would take a good statistical analysis to answer that question.

garf112 wrote:
George_Foreman wrote:Walks are irrelevant in 5x5. The only categories that truly matter are the ones that get counted. Obviously, walks will effect these other categories and should be taken into account when projecting them, but by themselves, walks are irrelevant.


I don't think anyone said that walks by themselves matter. I think we are trying to figure out: If Batter A sees a spike in bb% from 8% to 10%, what are the effects on the 5X5 stats?


Exactly. Walks are obviously meaningless by themself in 5x5 leagues. But walks undeniably have an effect on all 5 roto categories. By determining some quantifiable way to measure that effect you could project what would happen to their roto stats if say for example Jose Reyes actually starts walking more or if Adam Dunn suddenly started swinging at anything near the plate. That would be useful information especially in a case with a guy that shows NO plate discipline (Soriano for example). Obviously Soriano would be a better baseball player if he learned to take a walk. But I'm not so sure he would be a better 5x5 roto player. That's the type of thing we're trying to get to the bottom of here.
Hope springs eternal
grows like ivy on the vine
then dies in the fall

--Haiku for a Cubs Fan, The Loveable Losers
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7469
(Past Year: 179)
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri May 26, 2006 5:13 pm

garf112 wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote: By determining some quantifiable way to measure that effect you could project what would happen to their roto stats if say for example Jose Reyes actually starts walking more


Jose Reyes is walking more:

2005: 4% bb rate

2006: 9% bb rate

The only thing that has not gone up as a result is his batting average, which is down .020. I think because of an inflated fb%. OBP is up, SLG is up, HR% is up, XBH% is up.


It's just going to take a real statistician to run the numbers to find out how much of a correlation there is there on a league-wide basis and we'll be able to measure that increase against the decrease in at bats to find out which one is more significant and put a number on the overall effect. We know what the 2 factors are for home runs (walks directly reduce the number of at bats and cause the hr% to go up in the at bats the hitter does get) so it's just a matter of finding the proper weight for both and we have our formula for hr's.

Stolen bases is just about as easy...take the (obp-ba)/ba as a percentage (ie say .400 obp and .300 average gives us a (400-300)/300 or 1/3 increase in times on base). If a batter never walked and hit .300 they would get on base 30% of the time. If they walk enough to have a .400obp they're getting on base 40% of the time. That's an increase of times on base of 33% so you would expect a 33% increase in stolen bases if a player suddenly went from never walking to walking enough to have a .300avg/.400obp.

Runs and Rbi's are going to be a lot more complicated to work out as we have a lot of issues that I've brought up as well as some that other people have brought to light (walks with runners on third and less than 2 outs for example) that seriously complicate the rbi category.

Average is simple...it's just a question of how much weight to give it. Good hitters are hurt here by walks...bad hitters are helped. That's obvious and it just becomes a question of how much that affects the overall 5x5 value.
Hope springs eternal
grows like ivy on the vine
then dies in the fall

--Haiku for a Cubs Fan, The Loveable Losers
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7469
(Past Year: 179)
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby rainman23 » Fri May 26, 2006 7:20 pm

I've gotta say this seems like a fairly pointless discussion. Would Soriano be a better fantasy (and real life) player if he suddenly acquired some plate discipline? Well, yes, he would. In every plate appearance, guys on base or no, he's going to start seeing better pitches. Even a notorious hacker like Soriano is going to hit pitches in or near the strike zone better than the crap he habitually swings at. It may not be a dramatic increase in some categories, but there is going to be improvement across the board.

Let's say I'm right. I just gave you the answer. What was it you were going to do with this knowledge again?
rainman23
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 937
Joined: 19 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri May 26, 2006 8:56 pm

rainman23 wrote:I've gotta say this seems like a fairly pointless discussion. Would Soriano be a better fantasy (and real life) player if he suddenly acquired some plate discipline? Well, yes, he would. In every plate appearance, guys on base or no, he's going to start seeing better pitches. Even a notorious hacker like Soriano is going to hit pitches in or near the strike zone better than the crap he habitually swings at. It may not be a dramatic increase in some categories, but there is going to be improvement across the board.

Let's say I'm right. I just gave you the answer. What was it you were going to do with this knowledge again?


I think you missed the point...I'm saying that Soriano might actually not be as good as a fantasy option if he took more walks. His hr and rbi rates very well could drop while his runs and sb's might go up but that would be very lineup position dependant. In any case he would have a different stat line probably closer to Crawford with a bit less speed and a bit more power than to a power/speed mix. What we would do with this knowledge is determine if a guy actually starts showing the tendancy toward better plate discipline (something that as mentioned earlier a lot of players tend to do as they get older) then if we had formulas in place to track the expected effect of this increase in plate discipline we might have a better idea of what to expect in the 5x5 categories as a result.
Hope springs eternal
grows like ivy on the vine
then dies in the fall

--Haiku for a Cubs Fan, The Loveable Losers
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7469
(Past Year: 179)
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby blibros » Fri May 26, 2006 10:59 pm

First, let's be clear about the question:

Are we asking

1) Does a particular player's power and average improve if he increases his walk rate; or is it

2) Given players of identical ability from a rate perspective (per AB), is a higher walk rate better?

Regarding #1 - I ran correlations on 4 years of data, and of course I can't find them now. I do recall the correlation between BB rate and batting average is extremely low - 2-2.5%. That is without even subtracting out IBB, which reduces the correlation even further. I really need to find the data, but what I recall is that players with higher walk rates also have higher strikeout rates - not really that surprising as they take more pitches. So any gain from improved "selectivity" is largely offset by decreased contact rate. I do seem to recall that higher BB rates correlate with higher SLG, but even if true you are left with the chicken-egg question. Correlations do not imply causality. I will hunt around for the data next week.

Regarding #2 - I did an analysis comparing 2 identical average players in a current day AL-only 10 team league environment, assuming the only difference is that player A walks 30 times more while player B gets 30 more AB. With those 30 BB, player A will score 8.5 runs and steal about 1.5 bases. Player B, with his 30 more AB will produce about 1 HR, 4.5 RBI, 3.5-4 Runs, and .3 SB.
Netting it out, Player A has an advantage of 4.8 Runs and 1.2 SB vs. Player B with 4.5 RBI and 1 HR. So the average player shows an advantage from the BB, but it is very slight. All the BB in this scenario are assumed to be non-intentional.

Note that relatively few players are average in SB, which is really the key stat in the analysis. If the player isn't much of a base stealer you are better off with the AB than the BB.

In shallower leagues the equation may be quite different, but I haven't done that work up. Players are significantly better hitters, so they will produce more HR with those extra AB. Runs and RBI rates will both increase, though I would guess RBI would go up more. So in shallower leagues, I wouldn't be surprised to see the AB become equal to or greater in value. Of course the entire value question also becomes tied to how you value a SB, which is a contreversial subject.

So the simple answer is that if you have a base stealer you want him to BB, and if not you want him to get more AB.
blibros
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 20
Joined: 10 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby The Loveable Losers » Sat May 27, 2006 12:24 am

blibros wrote:First, let's be clear about the question:

Are we asking

1) Does a particular player's power and average improve if he increases his walk rate; or is it

2) Given players of identical ability from a rate perspective (per AB), is a higher walk rate better?

Regarding #1 - I ran correlations on 4 years of data, and of course I can't find them now. I do recall the correlation between BB rate and batting average is extremely low - 2-2.5%. That is without even subtracting out IBB, which reduces the correlation even further. I really need to find the data, but what I recall is that players with higher walk rates also have higher strikeout rates - not really that surprising as they take more pitches. So any gain from improved "selectivity" is largely offset by decreased contact rate. I do seem to recall that higher BB rates correlate with higher SLG, but even if true you are left with the chicken-egg question. Correlations do not imply causality. I will hunt around for the data next week.

Regarding #2 - I did an analysis comparing 2 identical average players in a current day AL-only 10 team league environment, assuming the only difference is that player A walks 30 times more while player B gets 30 more AB. With those 30 BB, player A will score 8.5 runs and steal about 1.5 bases. Player B, with his 30 more AB will produce about 1 HR, 4.5 RBI, 3.5-4 Runs, and .3 SB.
Netting it out, Player A has an advantage of 4.8 Runs and 1.2 SB vs. Player B with 4.5 RBI and 1 HR. So the average player shows an advantage from the BB, but it is very slight. All the BB in this scenario are assumed to be non-intentional.

Note that relatively few players are average in SB, which is really the key stat in the analysis. If the player isn't much of a base stealer you are better off with the AB than the BB.

In shallower leagues the equation may be quite different, but I haven't done that work up. Players are significantly better hitters, so they will produce more HR with those extra AB. Runs and RBI rates will both increase, though I would guess RBI would go up more. So in shallower leagues, I wouldn't be surprised to see the AB become equal to or greater in value. Of course the entire value question also becomes tied to how you value a SB, which is a contreversial subject.

So the simple answer is that if you have a base stealer you want him to BB, and if not you want him to get more AB.


That's exactly the type of stuff I was looking for. The only variable you leave out is the obvious one - extremely high or extremely low average guys sway our decisions on whether we like them to walk based on whether we want their average to count more or less. AB's give us a drop-off in runs/sb's but an increase in hr's/rbi's and you've quantified what the average player can do. If we were to adjust those numbers based on team and spot in the batting order I think we'd get a good idea about whether a player that starts changing his selectivity at the plate (either becoming more or less selective) is going to help or hurt his 5x5 roto value.
Hope springs eternal
grows like ivy on the vine
then dies in the fall

--Haiku for a Cubs Fan, The Loveable Losers
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7469
(Past Year: 179)
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby bleach168 » Sat May 27, 2006 1:10 am

So the simple answer is that if you have a base stealer you want him to BB, and if not you want him to get more AB.


Good stuff. My problem is that it makes traditional 5x5 fantasy baseball counter-intuitive. A player who draws a walk has benefitted his team yet (sometimes) punished his fantasy owner. That's just wrong.
bleach168
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 5058
(Past Year: 14)
Joined: 22 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby The Loveable Losers » Sat May 27, 2006 1:21 am

bleach168 wrote:
So the simple answer is that if you have a base stealer you want him to BB, and if not you want him to get more AB.


Good stuff. My problem is that it makes traditional 5x5 fantasy baseball counter-intuitive. A player who draws a walk has benefitted his team yet (sometimes) punished his fantasy owner. That's just wrong.


That's exactly why I brought this subject up. Walks are widely considered by people that follow the stats end of baseball to be very important both to the player and to the team. What people often overlook is that while they help the player and the team they don't always necessarily help the STATS that the player puts up - at least not the ones we use in 5x5 roto leagues.
Hope springs eternal
grows like ivy on the vine
then dies in the fall

--Haiku for a Cubs Fan, The Loveable Losers
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7469
(Past Year: 179)
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests