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PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2003 9:28 pm
by sinicalypse
"the cubs have acquired doug glanville for a large bag of doritos, a case of pepsi, and a half bottle of tylenol PM from the texas rangers..."

this makes absolutely no sense. their roster is crowded with old, ineffectual players.

lenny harris, paul bako, trenidad hubbard (THE MOFO IS 37 F*****G YEARS OLD!), and i'll even toss out kenny lofton out there.

i'm not a big lofton fan... even tho he's solid defensively, he doesn't seem capable of hitting over .275 when it's all said and done, his speed is relatively limited, and he fancies hitting the longball (10 HR) which worries me, cuz ideally i'd want my leadoff guy to not be devoid of power... but shoot for average. if he was hitting .313/10/50/20, sure it's one thing... but when you're .270/10/28/20... it makes you wonder.. for those 10 HRs he hit, how many more runs could have been generated if he hit .300 and stole about 25-30 bases?

i know this sounds terrible, but really, i was liking tom goodwin's game this season. sure, the guy couldn't hit .220 to save his life a year or two ago... but in very limited duty for the cubs, he performed admirably.. in 134 plate appearances, he hit .291 with onlly 1 HR and 8 rbi, but with 19 steals.

it's taken kenny lofton 365 at bats to get to 20 steals. goodwin was seriously stealing at a juan pierre like clip... juan pierre Himself has 51 steals in 442 PA, which equates to one steal per 8.6666666666 plate appearances... goodwin's ratio is at one steal per 7.06 plate appearances... so essentially, when he was playing, goodwin was the most productive base-stealer in the entire game.

lofton is overrated and won't be back with the cubs next season... and realistically, he was salary dump throw in to be packaged with a-ram, who the cubs wanted for this season and next. when i heard of the deal i groaned, because dusty is the kind of personable dolt who will play lofton on credit that he earned when he was a pesky leadoff hitter for the indians back in the day... however, goodwin was outplaying lofton.. and he wasn't in dusty's favor, cuz i remember a game where goodwin went either 5-5 or 4-5 and he was benched the next game for TRENIDAD HUBBARD (who has no business being on the cubs roster, btw, but thats another rant)

so what i'm getting at, is that the cubs are pretty dumb for making this trade. they're overcrowding the outfield with mediocre aged veterans who are all past their prime. and the shame is that tom goodwin, who busted his arse and actually was pretty damn productive this season and just under .300, is basically not going to see the time of day because he's competing with doug glanville (.272/4/14/4, yeeeeeah) to back up kenny lofton.

the cubs are dead in the water, and barring some miraculous performances from their pitching staff (i.e. if clement pitches the way he has over his last two starts for the rest of the season, zambrano keeps it up and starts WINNING) and either aramis ramirez goes off, or karros starts adding more power to his game to give the cubs another guy hitting at a .320/30/100 type pace, i dont see them having enough talent to make it to the playoffs.

see, to finish my rant, i went to all 3 cubs/expos games during the opening home series... when the cubs were winning often early, you could look at your scorecard or the box score and see a heap of runs scored by the top two in their order. when grudzie and gonzalez were both .300+, the cubs were scoring 4+ runs a game and winning. when they went cold and simmered down to ~.300 for grudzie and ~.260 for gonzalez, they started losing. granted sosa had his issues then... but i think the key to this cubs team is getting people on base for the 3-4-5 tandem, which is far from MLB's best, but is plenty productive since both alou and karros are hitting for average (something i wish sammy sosa remembered from his dominant 2001 season).. but now that they've got a perennial .265 hitter locked into the 1-hole,and the fascination with grudzielanek at the 2 hole has been cemented by his .300 average, i really fear that their offense will stagnante since after 1-2, sammy's never really going to shoot for that single or double that sets up alou/karros/ramirez... so from there, you hope alou gets on base with his .320ish average, and then 5-6 can do it.

so what do the cubs do to supplement the issue that their 1-2 guys are not scoring runs like they did during the early season success?

you stock up with two aged veterans, hitting a combined .271, with little to no-power, decreasing stolen base prowess (over the last two seasons lofton has shot his wad early, then the steals go non-existant), and one of which thinks he's a homerun hitter. fawking brilliant, cubbies... at least they've got a 3B who has 30/100 potential if he pulls it all together like he did in '01.

and this has quite possibly been my longest post ever. i wonder what dontrelle is doing =D

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2003 9:28 pm
by Madison
Lol. You guys are terrible. :-D Lol. ;-)

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2003 9:31 pm
by Super GM
Send that in to Arlo! He'l publish it as an article in the point of view section. You've got some interesting points there!

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2003 9:35 pm
by pkarr5000

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2003 10:00 pm
by sinicalypse
well, madison, living in chicago, lemme tell ya... the cubs are basically a-holes to their die hard fans. sure, the farm system has produced some talent and the team is markedly better than in the dreary mid-90s... but when it comes down to it, their free agent decisions are generally boneheaded moves.

i liked the moises alou signing even tho he tanked last season. when they signed him, i said moises alou had the sweetest swing on the cubbies because he's more of a pure hitter than sosa. this season i look to be somewhat validated.

but from there? well, it's really easy to now say that the dontrelle willis trade was quite bone-headed. but i wasn't a big fan of it then. alfonseca has never posted a WHIP under 1.35 in a big league season.. .sure in '01 he had a respectable 3.06 era, but look at his career, he's a 4+ era pitcher with a bad WHIP and low k-rates who just happened to be a closer. the words consistent and matt clement can't be in the same sentence without the word "isn't" or words "never is". going into last season, he had never posted a WHIP under ******* 1.5 ******* in a season. i mean... HELLO, the guy never had an era under 4.4 or a whip under 1.5... then you get a closer who had only one sub-3 era season with a whip never under 1.35... you're essentially getting crap that you hope will get better.

and ok, nobody predicted that dontrelle willis would rise to the bigs and flat out dominate like he has, but still, the cubs haven't had a good left handed pitcher for a long time or even a fairly decent one... steve trout? terry mulholland? they havent had a good one for as long as i can remember.. so what i mean, is, sure at the time this trade looked good... but 1) dontrelle's explosion aside, it wasn't as good as it seemed to be. both of these guys proved that they were very expendable and 2) you gave away a left handed prospect when your major league team rotation is basically chock full of right handers?

i think it was a greedy trade, the marlins knew what the cubs had better than the cubs themselves had, and even jeffrey loria was quoted as saying early last year "it might not be until next year or the year after, but you will see why we made this trade"... i think baylor whined to management after gordon went down again, as he lost all confidence in gordon last august after gordon went on an impressive stretch in '01.. .and hell, his WHIP sucked, but gordon had easily over 1K/IP last season and a 3.3 era to boot. aka, HE WAS BETTER THAN ALFONSECA FROM THE VERY BEGINNING...

so between baylor and hendry, they really screwed the pooch there... and even this season they said that they thought clement was a quality pitcher and alfonseca was a quality closer... but that's spin doctoring, because they were getting bargain bin players and giving up what has turned out to be one hell of a prospect for it. they got played, essentially.. the trade seemed too good to be true when the chicago media spin doctors got on it, and now it's way too good to be true.. heh, they got us.

anyways, other than that.. i dunno, they never go out and get the stud player like the yankees, or even red sox do. thats what i mean... see, they try to convince you with that cuddly homely feeling that they're getting quality players... but when you look at them up close, they suck. really.. over the last 2 years, while we hear about BIG CHOI and how great he's gonna be (just like bobby "that boy just aint right" hill) we let giambi and thome go by.. hell, thome grew up in peoria.. if they opened up that big stash of cash they pocket from all the revenue from TV/radio broadcasts, they could easily spend the money nad have a significantly better team. but it's been proven time and time again that if you give chicago a team that's just around .500 that can pretendcontend for 1/2 of the summer, they will get their 3 million plus asses into wrigley seats, they'll sell the beer, people will care about them, and they'll make a heap of cash. anything that costs more than whatever they spend just cuts into their profit margins, and god forbid that.

granted, they've made developments to become kind of like the oakland A's.. however, people try telling you that the cubs staff is in the neighborhood of the A's, but that just isn't true. kerry wood has never won more than 13 games in a season, and with his recent struggles he just might barely get to 15. mark prior has had a couple of injuries to hold him back.. zambrano is still developing, clement is jekyll and hyde (still barely a .500 pitcher last season despite a 3.6 era and solid K rate).. and shawn estes? please.

ideally, in a utopian world, kerry wood wins 20 with a 2.75 era.. prior stays healthy and goes like 17-8 with a 2.85 era and 200K.. zambrano is like 15-10 with a 3.5 era and 150+ K.. and clement is about the same as zambrano.. but it doesnt work out that way.

then there's sammy, who has to lead MLB in flyouts to the warning track. i swear, whatever he "learned" in 2001 is long gone as the memories of .320/64/160 are long gone... if he was a complete hitter, using his HR prowess to intimidate pitchers into walking him way too much, then consequently getting him pitches to hit for average, the cubs would be better off... but as it is, every 2 or 3 games he's good for a 2-3 run jack.. maybe a couple of multi-HR games a month... and a more consistent average hitter would make the cubs a better team, especially considering that they've got two .320 hitters behind him with moderate power, and now aramis ramirez can definitely be a .280/20/80-100 guy when his head's screwed on right.

so basically, my beef with the cubs is that they convince everyone that they're trying more than they do... in reality, most of their good fortune falls right into their laps (i.e. sosa developing from a little punk kid into a 30/30 guy, then into a perennial 50+ HR hitter, prior not being drafted by the twins and falling to them, kerry wood, karros actually revitalizing his career, joe borowski coming out of nowhere to pitch like he does) and is NOT caused by them.

sure the cubs farm system is great ask anyone and everyone, the demigod jim hendry stocked it up so well... but prior didn't develop there, he just went through there. kerry wood is, right now, nothing more than a perennial 12-9 type pitcher with a 3.something era and too many walks to be dominant, or even a .750 win pct pitcher.. bobby hill sucks, patterson was starting to hack it this season but got injured... who else? farnsworth is alright. juan cruz fell apart quick. wellemeyer looked good and fell back apart. kelton came up for a cup of coffee and went back down, he can't even play third. trenidad hubbard is 37 and has no business being in MLB, let alone on a "contending" team. hee seop choi is labeled by everyone around here to be a 30-40 HR guy, for sure, but he's got a big hole in his swing, watched his BA plummet to .250... and now he's like .250/8/35 and losing playing time to an aging baseball player, not even a special athlete.

who do we have to look forward to? nic jackson? bobby brownlie? bobby hill's fourth go around? todd wellemeyer? maybe francis beltran, but realistically, the cubs farm system is massively overhyped and has done not a whole lot to help out the plight in the majors.

so thats my cub beef. i still go to 8-10 games a year and dont pull against them.. i jsut get sick of locals being like "oh we got CLEMENT, we got CHOI, sammy is one of the best, we got WOOD"

you got clement, allright, oh yeah, you have a hot steaming load of clement left in a flaming bag on your doorstep as a prank while dontrelle outpitches randy johnson tonight. until hee-seop hits 15 HRs in the majors, i will not be ready to christen him the 1b of the future..

hell, i remember people, even hendry, citing that it's choi's turn so they dont go out and spend cash on jim thome. so what do they do? they get another 1B who i dont think is even signed past this year to go out there, and actually do a good job despite his horrific lack of power (this guy used to hit 30 HRs? you coulda fooled me) and then let choi fizzle into mediocrity.

so yeah.. i dunno about the cubs. i have obvious bias here, but i will believe that they're ready to win when they let sammy walk, then turn around and sign vladimir guerrero long term so they actually have another .330/30/100/30 steals guy who won't always try to crush every pitch onto waveland when there's an RBI opportunity that a single would be almost as good as.

that and when they give up on selling us on the bobby hills of the world, and dont cop out of a potentially large FA signing citing their great farm system spitting up another one.

phew. gotta go. chew on that =D

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2003 10:08 pm
by Madison
Wow! 8-o You make some good points there. Nice job. ;-D I do think that Wellemeyer has a good chance of being a respectable pitcher though.

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2003 10:12 pm
by Transmogrifier
Can I get the Cliff Notes version? Or perhaps an executive summary? 8-o

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2003 10:44 pm
by DieHardCubbie
Nice post Sini...I can't say that I agree with all of it...but you make some very valid and interesting points...

As for as the trade goes...With Goodwin going down, if the Cubbies didn't make a move, they definately would be out of it...Lofton and Glanville are upgrades over what they would have had to run out there...(Harris, O'Leary and Hubbard...)...Long term, it wouldn't have made since to make a long term move in the OF. With Patterson coming back next year and Kelton will be nipping at Alou's heels next year....

Although I knew nothing of Willis at the time of the trade, I didn't like the thoughts of getting Clement and Alf...Clement had a good run last year, but he was supposed to be the ace of the future for the Padres and that never worked out...He was supposed to be the ace of the future for the Fish and that wasn't gonna happen...I just didn't understand adding him to our rotation....And I won't comment on ALf... :-P

I agree that Hendry and others try to hype some of the younger players that are down I-80...But overall, I think there is some good talent in the system...Welley, Beltran, Kelton, Pie, Brownlie and others have the potential to figure big into the Cubbie future...I can see a staff four or five years down the road that consist of Prior, Cruz, Welley, Ryu and Brownlie...(Wood will go FA)...I personally feel that the talent in the farm system is some of the best in baseball...

This is the first time in a while I have felt the Cubs were actually trying for this year...Yes there were different options that could have been taken...but the moves did upgrade the team over what they had...It has always been in the past, trade for to make it look like something is being done...I think Hendry is a good GM (better than past) and will take another season to put the Cubs over the top...but that is the direction they are moving...In niether of the trades done was very much given up...and the team was improved...

I understand where you are coming from...I have watched the Cubbies for 25+ years...and it seems that the mentality has been "waiting for next year"...and finally they are trying for this year...It may not be much, but it is a start...

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2003 11:14 pm
by pkarr5000
the point is, the cubs suck, and will never win, period. the astros have kent back and are producing runs like crazy. i know people think they wont get far in the postseason and that is probably true since their pitching is almost as bad as st. louis, but they have the veteran kent this time and that might make a difference. i honestly thought the cards would be a much stronger team this year, but i guess edmonds swing really looks bad. i dont know why the cubs are stacking old guys on their team. i mean c'mon, its not like corey was gonna do anything after the break if he was healthy. he sucks after the break. eric karros and grudzielanek is pretty embarrasing so all the cubs can do is just trade for younger guys, their pitching is outstanding but thats not enough. i will just look down at this team until they do something that i like. trading for a buncha old guys will not help.