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Postby brdmaverick » Thu Jul 31, 2003 11:10 am

I don't think the Reds' new closer will have any value, how can he get saves when the team doesn't win. ESPN makes it sound as if they are going to give their whole bullpen away.
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Aug 01, 2003 1:19 am

Leiter Fan wrote:I will also note that 3-year numbers are very deceiving for Benitez, since his ERA has steadily increased and his strikeout rate has steadily decreased over the last 3 years.


Benitez 02 era was 2.27, his best era of the 3 year splits 00-02. Yea his k rate has decreased some, but his 10.55 ks per 9 last year beat Smoltz 9.52 per 9.
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Postby GSes » Fri Aug 01, 2003 1:31 am

Madison Im not sure what u are saying when u claim ur league is very competitive so closers like Gagne/Smoltz arent takes ealry.

Seriously there are many good Of, there are many good SP

There are very few good closers and Gagne/Smoltz are extremly valuable, as they are the 2 best at their very, very unstacked position. I think ur crazy when u say Gagne/Smoltz werent picked early because ur league is smarter, if Gagne/Smoltz slipped past the first 2 rounds, trust me I would jump all over them in the third round on becase they have major trade value and are uber awesome at what they do. Gagne k/inings are amazing and the argument of well his k's arent a big deal is stupid because think about this Gagne gets u a whole lot of K's while easting very few of ur inings. Its as if he adds k's to all of ur SP. I dont know I just don't see ur reasoning in that Gagne/Smoltz arent deserving up 2nd round picks or even the last pick in the first round. If u look at Yahoo Gagne/Smoltz are ranked in teh top 5 OF ALL PITCHERS.

Thats all
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Postby DieHardCubbie » Fri Aug 01, 2003 2:26 am

The fact is though...closers can be taken later...in a 12 team league, the only closer I drafted was Wagner in the 5th...I picked Worrell, JoBo and Macdougall off waivers...If you can't get Gagne or Smoltz then you can build a competitive pen later in the draft or of waivers...
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Postby jdh » Fri Aug 01, 2003 3:11 am

The reason why Gagne and Smoltz really don't make sense to be picked up in the 2nd round is because you have to look at the overall effect of the player on your team. Yes, a Gagne or Smoltz can give you 50 saves. And yes, they will have spectacular ERA and WHIP. However, a typical closer only pitches 80 innings over the course of a year. A typical starting pitcher will throw 200+ and often up to 240 innings if they don't get injured during the year. That means that, if you have a team with 5 starters and 3 closers, your stud closer only consitutes 1/18 of your team's ERA and WHIP. Even the best closers don't help much in negating the effect of your starting pitchers getting lit up.

At the same time that a Gagne or Smoltz would be taken in the draft next year (assuming second round), you could probably find a guy like Carlos Beltran who is a 5 category stud and will help in every offensive category, or Ichiro, who will come close to being the best in the league in average, runs, and steals. Pretty much every starting pitcher other than maybe RJ, Schilling and Pedro should also be available, and a stud starting pitcher gives you solid numbers in 4 pitching categories. Any of those choices would have more overall value for your team than getting a guy who'll have 50 saves.

You also have to keep in mind the risk associated with alot of top tier closers. Sasaki, Nen and Hoffman will all be coming off major injuries next year. Smoltz and Wagner have histories of seriousarm problems that could crop up at any time. Rivera has spent signifigant time on the DL two straight years now. Also, there's always the risk that top tier closers will suddenly become ineffective and lose their jobs. Preseason this year, most people would have considered Koch a top 10 closer, as they would have for Foulke in 2002 and Lowe in 2001, all of whom lost their jobs. Plus, there's the trade risk, a la Benitez and Urbina this year.

There'll be guys that emerge at the beginning of every year as viable closers that can be picked off the waiver wire by astute owners (Guardado and Gagne in 2002), (Borowski, MacDougal, Worrell this year). Yes, these guys may only get 30 saves vs the 50 Smoltz will get, but if you combine three or four lower tier closers, you can get the same number of saves as guys who overpay for the top guys.

That's why although Gagne and Smoltz will go 2nd round probably next year, you'd be smart not to take them. I think you're better off taking a decently entrenched closer around the 8th round, and then a couple of lower tier closers in the later rounds and then work the wire early in the season in hopes of getting the new guys that emerge. That way, it leaves more draft picks to invest in quality hitting and starting pitching, which is much more difficult to get mid-season.
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Postby GSes » Fri Aug 01, 2003 3:15 am

I agree I would take a Beltran over a top closer any day, Im simply saying that Gagne/Smoltz are extrmely valuable and will get u a stud player in a trade.
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Postby jdh » Fri Aug 01, 2003 3:18 am

Yes, they are valuable, but they are overvalued by most people plus in a Yahoo league, Yahoo ranks closers way too high (Gagne ranked in the top 5 for midseason drafts). Since others will be taking them too early, you're better off stocking up on the stud hitters.
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Postby Quaker » Fri Aug 01, 2003 3:18 am

I'd rather take a stud player directly, than to take a closer and hope I can trade him for a stud player.
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Postby Madison » Fri Aug 01, 2003 5:27 am

GSes wrote:Madison Im not sure what u are saying when u claim ur league is very competitive so closers like Gagne/Smoltz arent takes ealry.

Seriously there are many good Of, there are many good SP

There are very few good closers and Gagne/Smoltz are extremly valuable, as they are the 2 best at their very, very unstacked position. I think ur crazy when u say Gagne/Smoltz werent picked early because ur league is smarter, if Gagne/Smoltz slipped past the first 2 rounds, trust me I would jump all over them in the third round on becase they have major trade value and are uber awesome at what they do. Gagne k/inings are amazing and the argument of well his k's arent a big deal is stupid because think about this Gagne gets u a whole lot of K's while easting very few of ur inings. Its as if he adds k's to all of ur SP. I dont know I just don't see ur reasoning in that Gagne/Smoltz arent deserving up 2nd round picks or even the last pick in the first round. If u look at Yahoo Gagne/Smoltz are ranked in teh top 5 OF ALL PITCHERS.

Thats all


What I'm saying is that in a competitive league. Smart owners know that Gagne/Smoltz will have very little impact on every catagory except saves. Yes they help era, whip, and k's, but not nearly enough to grab ahead of a 5 tool hitter or a 4 catagory pitcher. Smart owners don't waste early picks on a 1 catagory guy. Juan Pierre will win you the steals catagory in a roto league. Would you waste a 1st or 2nd round pick on him? I didn't think so. In that particular leage I had the second pick overall and I took Arod in the first round and Zito in the second. I'd still rather have Arod/Zito over either Gagne or Smoltz. That would have been a very bad move to take a closer over those 2 guys. I love playing in leagues where 1 or 2 teams draft closers in the early rounds. That makes them very easy to beat.

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Postby pilambp » Fri Aug 01, 2003 10:07 am

jdh wrote:The reason why Gagne and Smoltz really don't make sense to be picked up in the 2nd round is because you have to look at the overall effect of the player on your team. Yes, a Gagne or Smoltz can give you 50 saves. And yes, they will have spectacular ERA and WHIP.


Taking these guys high in the draft is a lot like taking Juan Pierre in the 3rd round. Pierre will help you dominate that one category, but other guys available that early in the draft can help you out in 4-5 categories.
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