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Postby Quaker » Thu Jul 31, 2003 12:55 am

I agree with Hootie. Not only can closers be erratic, but they simply aren't worth a high draft pick. They only really help you in one area. Even areas where they might be dominating (ERA and WHIP) aren't affected that much because their IP are such a small percentage. Only Gagne really helps in Ks. While you're spending a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick on a guy who's helping you in one, maybe two, categories, other managers are picking up players who will contribute heavily in 3, 4, or even 5.

You can usually get sleeper closers late in the draft or even off waivers. I got Foulke in the 16th round, and picked up Borowski the first week and Politte later on. I also picked up some temporary closers like Eldred and Speier up while they still had/have the job. The result: I'm second in saves. And even though some of the guys have had meltdowns and let in a ton of runs, it hasn't hurt me much because their IP is fairly insignificant. I'm also second in ERA.
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Postby Leiter Fan » Thu Jul 31, 2003 12:56 am

HOOTIE wrote:
Madison wrote:This season will make sure that the "big" closers go very early in the draft next year.


Taking closers early isnt wise. Look at Benitez and Nen this year. Closers are erratic.


I would hardly call Benitez a "big" closer. I'm assuming Madison meant players like Gagne, Smoltz and Rivera.
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:20 am

[quote=
I would hardly call Benitez a "big" closer. I'm assuming Madison meant players like Gagne, Smoltz and Rivera.[/quote]

Why isnt Benitez a big closer? Certaintly in anyones preseason top 10. Heres the 3year numbers from 00-02.

Total saves Benitez 117 3rd
Rivera 114 5th

Save % Benitez 90.7% 3rd
Rivera 87.7% 7th

SO per 9 Benitez 11.41 3rd

He beats Rivera in all 3 catergories.
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Postby Leiter Fan » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:26 am

HOOTIE wrote:[quote=
I would hardly call Benitez a "big" closer. I'm assuming Madison meant players like Gagne, Smoltz and Rivera.


Why isnt Benitez a big closer? Certaintly in anyones preseason top 10. Heres the 3year numbers from 00-02.

Total saves Benitez 117 3rd
Rivera 114 5th

Save % Benitez 90.7% 3rd
Rivera 87.7% 7th

SO per 9 Benitez 11.41 3rd

He beats Rivera in all 3 catergories.[/quote]

I wouldn't construe "big" as meaning within the top ten - especially when you figure that there can only be a maximum of 30 full time closers (and there were much less this year). That means that you consider the top 33% or more to be big picks, worthy of an extremely early pick, which is ridiculous.

I would say that the "big" closers are those elite, lights out closers, who trully scare the crap out of other teams (of which there are only 4 or 5 in the majors). Nowadays, the only person who Benitez scares the crap out of is his own team!!!!

I will also note that 3-year numbers are very deceiving for Benitez, since his ERA has steadily increased and his strikeout rate has steadily decreased over the last 3 years.
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Postby Madison » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:26 am

Leiter Fan wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
Madison wrote:This season will make sure that the "big" closers go very early in the draft next year.


Taking closers early isnt wise. Look at Benitez and Nen this year. Closers are erratic.


I would hardly call Benitez a "big" closer. I'm assuming Madison meant players like Gagne, Smoltz and Rivera.


"Big" closers are Gagne/Smoltz. That's it. I do agree that I won't be taking them early next year. I'm doing very well in saves, even though some of it has been patchwork this year. I was just pointing out that Gagne/Smoltz will be taken faster next year, than they were this year. ;-)
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Postby Leiter Fan » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:29 am

Madison wrote:
Leiter Fan wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
Madison wrote:This season will make sure that the "big" closers go very early in the draft next year.


Taking closers early isnt wise. Look at Benitez and Nen this year. Closers are erratic.


I would hardly call Benitez a "big" closer. I'm assuming Madison meant players like Gagne, Smoltz and Rivera.


"Big" closers are Gagne/Smoltz. That's it. I do agree that I won't be taking them early next year. I'm doing very well in saves, even though some of it has been patchwork this year. I was just pointing out that Gagne/Smoltz will be taken faster next year, than they were this year. ;-)


Wouldn't you consider Billy Wagner and a healthy Mariano Rivera worthy of inclusion on that list?
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Postby Madison » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:40 am

Smoltz/Gagne= the best

Wagner/Rivera/Foulke/Percival= very, very good.


Take a look at your draft. Here's one of mine: 12 team league:

Gagne: 3rd round=28th overall
Smoltz: 3rd round=34th overall
Wagner: 5th round=52nd overall
Percival: 5th round=53rd overall
Rivera: 5th round=60th overall

What I'm getting at is that Gagne/Smoltz will go earlier than last year which will cause a chain reaction on the guys who are left. I would not be suprised if either one of Gagne/Smoltz goes in the 2nd round of a draft next year. I won't take them that high, but I'll bet that someone else does. In a live draft that can have a big impact on who you draft and in what round.
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Postby Leiter Fan » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:45 am

Madison wrote:Smoltz/Gagne= the best

Wagner/Rivera/Foulke/Percival= very, very good.


Take a look at your draft. Here's one of mine: 12 team league:

Gagne: 3rd round=28th overall
Smoltz: 3rd round=34th overall
Wagner: 5th round=52nd overall
Percival: 5th round=53rd overall
Rivera: 5th round=60th overall

What I'm getting at is that Gagne/Smoltz will go earlier than last year which will cause a chain reaction on the guys who are left. I would not be suprised if either one of Gagne/Smoltz goes in the 2nd round of a draft next year. I won't take them that high, but I'll bet that someone else does. In a live draft that can have a big impact on who you draft and in what round.


Actually in my league, Gagne went with the 18th overall pick, in the second round of a 12 team league. Rivera went with the very next pick (but the pick was by a Yankee apologist). But for some bizarre reason, Smoltz wasn't picked up until the 4th round!!! (And Nen had been already been claimed early in the 3rd round). I guess it just depends on the league.
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Postby Madison » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:48 am

The league I used as an example is very competitive. The owners are all smart enough to take more valuable guys in the early rounds. I'm just thinking that Smoltz/Gagne will go faster next year. We'll have to wait and see. One more time for the record. I will not be taking a closer in the first 3 rounds. :-D
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Postby Quaker » Thu Jul 31, 2003 1:58 am

I probably won't ever take a closer in the first half. It gets kind of risky picking up saves through patchwork, but it lets you get some quality hitters and starting pitchers without hurting you too much, and it's more fun that way too :*) I'm constantly checking the closer watch on ESPN.
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