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How to account for luck in Fantasy Baseball

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Postby Jbyrdo » Wed May 17, 2006 7:05 pm

Roto bothers me because you don't have to make as many tough decisions about bench pitchers. You don't have to decide between Start/Sit a bench pitcher who could give you that extra W and K's or could kill your ERA and WHIP.

H2H may be luck as far as matchups go, but it takes skill to make a team that can perform well consistently. In H2H hot and cold streaks affect your team in a huge way, so a skilled manager plays around this.
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Postby Yoda » Wed May 17, 2006 7:17 pm

Bukoski77 wrote:
The Miner Part 2 wrote:roto = skill

h2h weekly = skill and a lot of lucky moments.



Agreed, to an extent. If you want to put in the work you can create a sophisticated enough point system and scheduling (more than 1 H-H matchup per-week), that creates an elaborate enough scoring system that your H-H league isnt about luck.

Most H-H point leagues dont even come close. Your average standard Sportsline and Yahoo H-H leagues dont come close to the skill level required for 5X5 roto.


I disagree H2H involves a lot of luck. It takes hell of a lot more skill to put together a consistently good team to beat any team, any given week especially when it counts.
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Postby Grouperman941 » Wed May 17, 2006 7:35 pm

Jbyrdo wrote:Roto bothers me because you don't have to make as many tough decisions about bench pitchers. You don't have to decide between Start/Sit a bench pitcher who could give you that extra W and K's or could kill your ERA and WHIP.


This is just not true. You might not see the impact right away, but if you manage your pitchers well. you can earn points in Ws, Ks, ERA, and WHIP. If you need wins, you can take risks the same as your example. Maybe you don't 'have' to make those decisions, but your team is better if you do.

As far as the original question, luck has to be an important part of the game. If you could just figure out the exact formula, plug in the players, and be pretty sure of the outcome, it would not be much fun.

You can manage perfectly based on all the data and still not do well or you can manage badly based on the data and still do well.

Over time, I think the effects of luck are reduced, which is why it seems roto is less luck.

Q: Is a guy who is 1 for his last 15 cold or is he due?

A: If I bench him, he is due; if I play him, he is cold.
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