The Loveable Losers wrote: cordscords wrote: The Loveable Losers wrote:
A sharp increase in production usually follows with a sharp decrease in production. Gomes is going to have a month where he probably hits 2 or 3 HR (I'm not sure if you read my sell high on jonny gomes thread) so while he does not "use up" his projected HR total, it falls back into the range where he was supposed to.
I agree with everything you said there except for the number of home runs. A sharp increase in production is usually followed by a regression to the player's mean. In Gomes case we projected 5 hr per month so he should regress to that 5 hr per month. Again, just because a guy is 'hot' doesn't mean he's going to be cold after that hot streak. He's more likely to regress to the mean indicated by his skill set.
I don't mean to reference my own thread again, but I had an example of 2 star players who hit 30 HR in their first full season (Cabrera and Bay). They both had power outage months of 2 and 3. So while the final #'s averaged out to 5/6 HR a month, they had 1 awesome month and 1 poor month. His lack of experience will come back to hurt him at some point this season.
And Gomes doesnt even have enough AB yet at the ML level to set a mark where we can expect him to regress to. I had Gomes right around 30 at the start of the year myself so I do think 5 is a respectable amount to assume, but the point is we don't know. Could he just be a flash in the pan?
First of all home run totals obviously will fluctuate. Any time you're talking about an expected total of 5 even hitting 4 or hitting 6 is a big swing. We're talking about small data sets here. But if you predicted 5 hr per month (or more importantly you predicted about 1 hr every 18 at bats or so) then there is no reason to expect the player not to hit 1 hr every 18 at bats or so.
As to whether he could be a flash in the pan...sure that's entirely possible. That said in the absence of new information you have to stick with your preseason projections. Most people projected him with somewhere between .265 and .285 average with 30 hr power and barring evidence to the contrary that's what I would continue to expect out of him. Again, guys will have slight variation from that performance...they may even go into a prolonged slump. It's possible. But Gomes deviating in a negative direction in May from his projections is just as likely as deviating for a second time in a positive direction.
If that's the case his production is up in June, down in July, up in August, down in September. That's silly.
If a guy is playing ball for 10 years is a career .300 hitter and hits .250 in the first half, you shouldnt expect him to hit .350 in the second half to reach .300. You should expect him to hit .300 in the second half and finish with a .275 average.
The difference is this guy has done it for 10 years, Gomes for a few months. A learning curve is going to hit him hard at some point.
In fact can you find me 1 player in the last 5 years who is considered a good power hitter as of right now, and didnt have 1 power outage month in his first full season?