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PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:37 am
by biju
The 1st makes sense to me as does the 6th/7th idea, but I'm going to be willing to make the claim that you should consider roughly when the heart of your lineup gets their second time around in the 3rd/4th. They've seen the pitcher already and have made their adjustments.

It may also even depend on which part of the season you're in because in the beginning of the season pitchers are more likely to get shelled since hitters are way ahead of pitchers early in the season.

PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:37 am
by LiveForever
I know what it is for Brad Radke. He gives up runs in the first practically every game.

PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:47 am
by markj11
I would say first due to fact that the pitcher is tring to find a groove and also have the 1,2 and 3 hitters up with no outs.

PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:49 am
by NikkiSixx
I think first would be the obvious answer.

Pitcher hasnt found his groove yet (not the case for all pitchers), plus the fact you have the top of your order up, it seems like a sure thing.

PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:58 pm
by Bud Light
I could see a bunch of innings as possibilities, I wish someone had this answer though.

1st IP face the top hitters in each lineup, but it's also a batters first look at the pitcher, plus the pitcher is fresh, plus the pitcher is better than middle relievers.

5th, 6th, 7th IP SP can be getting tired, facing batters for the 3rd time. Middle relieves come in who are usually worse than SP.

PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:18 pm
by Matthias
Nerfherders wrote:I would imagine that over that large of a sample size (30 years) the numbers are going to be within tenths, perhaps even hundreths of eachother. They will be really close. But yeah if I were a betting man I would go with the first inning.

Probably, although I'd exclude the 9th even if you leave our an argument about a shut-down closer simply because about half the time, only half of the innings gets played.

PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:50 pm
by Bud Light
I don't think it should matter that the 9th inning is played only half the time. It would just be considered a 1/2 inning.

PostPosted: Fri Apr 28, 2006 5:46 pm
by Apollo
The best hitters come up in the first inning. There is no other inning that is guaranteed to have the best hitters come to the plate. I would say it almost has to be the first inning.