orange12 wrote:I can easily see 30 HRs and 100 RBI for Gibbons if not more. His BA will be around .280-.290 and his OBP will never be high.
Read between the lines of his 2005 stats and you'll see why he's breakout material. Gibbons lost 23 games of playing time last year because the Orioles still had to give priority to Sammy Sosa in RF for 66 games. During which time Gibbons was either forced to sit or shift to 1B where he clearly wasn't comfortable. (2005 situational stats show Gibbons hit .257 in 22 games at 1B compared to .324 in 71 games in RF.) I think if you gave Gibbons those 23 games back, let him start full time in right, and give him the 5th spot in the lineup which he has now, those 26 HRs in 2005 look more like 30-32 to me.
Gibbons lost PT last year because he doesn't hit lefties well. This year, he'll sit at times with Millar and Conine playing.
Gibbons also lost time because of a back injury (about 10 games in July, IIRC). He has had a similar injury bug every year except 2003. Betting men should bet it'll happen again.
Gibbons' preferred position, according to him, is 1B. That's what he's said he's more comfortable playing.
Sorry, I just don't see it. There's the off chance he'll stay healthy and have another 2003. But I don't see how you can call that a breakout. Gibbons is a solif player, but I would not count of 2006 being any different than the past.