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johnsamo wrote:As a general rule, I've found it real difficult to project MR production year-to-year. Scott Linebrink and Scott Shields are usually money, but most get so few appearances, that often vulture wins are as much about luck as talent. One guy I like is Mike Myers. He's usually just a get-a-lefty-out 1 or 2 batter appearance guy so he doesn't get the innings that most good MR guys get, but he's got great #s versus lefties, and he can rack up a lot of holds when the Yankees are on a roll where they're winning by just a few runs.
Other than the few constantly good MRs, I've found it's usually a wait and see affair because they come and go so much.
garf112 wrote:When it comes to batting average Ks and HRs have the same weight. A K is 0-1, and a HR is 1-1. Automatically.
So the idea is to find out how prone to BA variability a player is?
Or just to find out how much better than the league average player he is regarding gb/ld/fb%. This seems like a circular arguement you are making.
johnsamo wrote:pre-draft next year, do you plan on doing this stuff again?.... If so, I'd love to see it. Other than real basic stuff like Ks and walks per innings, I don't have the time to look deeper into MR stats. I generally grab Shield and or Linebrink early and focus more on hold guys over save guys, so your research could help a lot.
My league counts Wins, Ks, Saves, Holds, ERA and WHIP, and my usually strategy is, have dominant high K, low ERA and WHIP SPs (because they throw most of the innings) and on saves and Holds, I try to get one Ace in each category, but partially punt saves after that because there is typically a run on save guys and they get drafted way too early than they should because people panic, so I like to counter strategy and focus on hold guys who'll also get vulture wins and won't drag me down in ERA and whip....,
My pitching strategy is, excel or dominate in Wins, Ks, holds and ERA and WHIP, and stay out of the cellar in saves, since it's so hard to predict saves anyways with injuries and cold streaks, etc,. and since everyone else is focussed on saves more, it's hard to predict where you'll wind up ranking anyway even if you focus on saves in the draft. Plus, there are always save guys who emerge that nobody saw coming during the draft.
At worst, excelling in Holds and tanking saves evens out to a wash and I do great in the other categories, but generally, if you don't get the injury bug, I've found that one ace reliever and a 2nd tier guy along with a pickup here and there can keep you out of the cellar in saves.
The million dollar question is which Soriano is the real one. I've laid out three scenarios here and given the rationale for each...my recommendation would be to read and consider each one and make your decision based on whichever rationale makes the most sense to you. Whatever you believe though Soriano certainly made his owners VERY happy for the first two months of the year. Hopefully you didn't see those numbers and trade for him after that big day on June 4th expecting more of the same.
garf112 wrote:Bravo! I don't own Soriano, and I wasn't going to trade for him, but that was such a good article that it just kept me reading.
garf112 wrote:The Loveable Losers wrote:garf112 wrote:Bravo! I don't own Soriano, and I wasn't going to trade for him, but that was such a good article that it just kept me reading.
Writing the article actually has me thinking of Soriano as a buy-low candidate as strange as that sounds. If you can play up his struggles since June 5th you can get yourself a 2b eligible guy that should be able to put up a minimum .269/32/107/76/42 pace for the remainder of the season. That's ridiculously good if you can get him for less than full value. I'm not sure how successful you could be at buying low on him right now but 20 games worth of terrible production can really start to erase that fast start in the minds of owners - especially owners in h2h leagues.
The owner that I would be trading with would probably only deal him for my first born at this point, eventhough he would have taken MUCH less over the winter. The concerns were real about ballpark and lineup effects.
It's useful from time to time to take a look at which pitchers have been unlucky. Sometimes the bloop hits fall in, the runners don't get stranded as often as they should or the hits all come in the same inning leading to a pounding. Identifying unlucky pitchers can present you with excellent buy-low candidates.
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