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"Buy low" pitchers

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Postby biju » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:05 pm

Sorry guys, stepped away from the computer a few hours. 8-o

Surfs up wrote:What site did you copy this from?


To be honest the idea was sparked by a article I read by Ron Shandler who has been writing the Baseball Forecaster. I took some of his ideas and then added my own, but all of the stat calculations I did in excel and then wrote the post up. Make sure to do your due diligence with these comments because you can't do much more than see the stats and analyize what is *likely* to happen in the future.

MissingOakley wrote:Before I think about making trade offers for these guys... your work is based on the idea that pitchers have little control over whether balls put into play become hits or outs. I've heard this talked about before. I've just never gotten fully comfortable with it. I feel like when a guy like Glavine is throwing well, righties are taking weak swings and hitting weak grounders off the end of the bat... but when a pitcher is struggling everything is line drives and he's lucky if they're caught.

So is your claim that the pitchers on your list will start throwing better pitches, which are more likely to induce weak swings... or that if these pitchers keep throwing exactly the same their WHIP and ERA will probably improve?

And most important, have people been successful targeting buy-low fantasy pitchers with this metric in the past?


The interesting point is actually how many balls are put into play. Pitchers certainly can become more or less dominant based on the day and other factors. The 30% mark has been accumulated statistically over the years and is the benchmark. Anything outside of 2 or so points show unlucky (or lucky in some cases) factors at work. Be sure to understand this isn't a measure of how dominant a pitcher is or whether he's throwing poorly or great, it's simply a measure of "luck". I wrestled with it for a while too while I was mentally chewing on the topic but came to the conclusion it was correct whether or not the pitcher is throwing well.

The Jury wrote:
Red Stripe wrote:Nice and helpful post, by the way what's Johan's hit rate? He seems to be a buy low option considering how many people are freaking out about him here at the cafe in the game commentary section.


As an extension to this question, can we see the list? :-)


Johan's hit rate is a little high at 33%. His HR/Game is right in line with career numbers but his Ks are low right now. More alarming is the number of walks given up. Being that he's started slow in years past I think the combination of that and being a little unlucky is making it look worse than it is. Besides, the Twins aren't exactly going to serve up a ton of runs as they are in the bottom third in the league for OBP.

As for the full list, I'll see what I can do. There's quite a bit of numbers I'm pulling and it might look more confusing to someone than helpful. The better option might be to "teach a man to fish instead of catching it and giving it to him." It will allow you to come to your own conclusions without any outside biases. Maybe a more simplified version can be put in here a little later today if I have time. ;-D
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Postby beltrans_boy » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:15 pm

Heres the DER (or hit rate) of every qualified pitcher thus far in 2006.

.700 is average. Anything higher is good, anything lower is bad. I'm not exactly sure how to format this, so if anybody knows better, feel free to repost it.

Young Chris 0.844
Maddux Greg 0.83
Buehrle Mark 0.81
Bannister Brian P 0.809
Santana Ervin R 0.807
Contreras Jose 0.803
Martinez Pedro 0.8
Wright Jamey 0.8
Schilling Curt 0.797
Elarton Scott 0.792
Beckett Josh 0.788
Halladay Roy 0.783
Rusch Glendon 0.781
Harden Rich 0.778
Williams Woody 0.776
Davies Kyle K 0.774
Patterson John 0.772
Washburn Jarrod 0.771
Fossum Casey 0.771
Johnson Jason 0.769
Capuano Chris 0.769
Zito Barry 0.768
Mitre Sergio 0.765
Carpenter Chris 0.764
Fogg Josh 0.759
Schmidt Jason 0.756
Marquis Jason 0.754
Cook Aaron 0.754
Zambrano Carlos 0.75
Chacin Gustavo G 0.75
Arroyo Bronson 0.75
Wakefield Tim 0.747
Maroth Mike 0.746
Vazquez Javier 0.741
Peavy Jake 0.74
Duke Zach 0.74
Padilla Vicente 0.739
Lowe Derek 0.738
Haren Danny 0.737
Vargas Jason M 0.735
Morris Matt 0.734
Lee Cliff 0.733
Milton Eric 0.732
Lackey John 0.731
Bonderman Jeremy 0.729
Francis Jeff W 0.727
Mussina Mike 0.727
Mulder Mark 0.727
Radke Brad 0.726
Silva Carlos 0.725
Ohka Tomo 0.724
Glavine Tom 0.722
Willis Dontrelle 0.722
Rogers Kenny 0.721
Claussen Brandon 0.72
Rodriguez Wandy E 0.72
Smoltz John 0.72
Lopez Rodrigo 0.72
Jennings Jason 0.718
Bush Dave T 0.714
Penny Brad 0.714
Oswalt Roy 0.714
Benson Kris 0.709
Pineiro Joel 0.709
Westbrook Jake 0.706
Perez Odalis 0.704
Myers Brett 0.698
Baker Scott S 0.696
Bedard Erik 0.696
Webb Brandon 0.696
Hudson Tim 0.695
Perez Oliver 0.695
Loe Kameron D 0.692
Weaver Jeff 0.692
Santana Johan 0.692
Johnson Randy 0.69
Cain Matt 0.688
Trachsel Steve 0.679
Tomko Brett 0.679
Armas Jr. Tony 0.667
Hernandez Livan 0.663
Santos Victor 0.656
Davis Doug 0.656
Kazmir Scott E 0.652
Wang Chien-Ming 0.646
Moyer Jamie 0.646
Escobar Kelvim 0.643
Harang Aaron 0.643
Park Chan Ho 0.642
Blanton Joe M 0.639
Lieber Jon 0.635
Pettitte Andy 0.634
Hernandez Orlando 0.621
Millwood Kevin 0.619
Clement Matt 0.617
McClung Seth 0.597
Lidle Cory 0.589
Batista Miguel 0.585
Garland Jon 0.574
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Postby biju » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:19 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:Heres the DER (or hit rate) of every qualified pitcher thus far in 2006.

.700 is average. Anything higher is good, anything lower is bad. I'm not exactly sure how to format this, so if anybody knows better, feel free to repost it.

Young Chris 0.844
Maddux Greg 0.83
Buehrle Mark 0.81
Bannister Brian P 0.809
Santana Ervin R 0.807
Contreras Jose 0.803
Martinez Pedro 0.8
Wright Jamey 0.8
Schilling Curt 0.797
Elarton Scott 0.792
Beckett Josh 0.788
Halladay Roy 0.783
Rusch Glendon 0.781
Harden Rich 0.778
Williams Woody 0.776
Davies Kyle K 0.774
Patterson John 0.772
Washburn Jarrod 0.771
Fossum Casey 0.771
Johnson Jason 0.769
Capuano Chris 0.769
Zito Barry 0.768
Mitre Sergio 0.765
Carpenter Chris 0.764
Fogg Josh 0.759
Schmidt Jason 0.756
Marquis Jason 0.754
Cook Aaron 0.754
Zambrano Carlos 0.75
Chacin Gustavo G 0.75
Arroyo Bronson 0.75
Wakefield Tim 0.747
Maroth Mike 0.746
Vazquez Javier 0.741
Peavy Jake 0.74
Duke Zach 0.74
Padilla Vicente 0.739
Lowe Derek 0.738
Haren Danny 0.737
Vargas Jason M 0.735
Morris Matt 0.734
Lee Cliff 0.733
Milton Eric 0.732
Lackey John 0.731
Bonderman Jeremy 0.729
Francis Jeff W 0.727
Mussina Mike 0.727
Mulder Mark 0.727
Radke Brad 0.726
Silva Carlos 0.725
Ohka Tomo 0.724
Glavine Tom 0.722
Willis Dontrelle 0.722
Rogers Kenny 0.721
Claussen Brandon 0.72
Rodriguez Wandy E 0.72
Smoltz John 0.72
Lopez Rodrigo 0.72
Jennings Jason 0.718
Bush Dave T 0.714
Penny Brad 0.714
Oswalt Roy 0.714
Benson Kris 0.709
Pineiro Joel 0.709
Westbrook Jake 0.706
Perez Odalis 0.704
Myers Brett 0.698
Baker Scott S 0.696
Bedard Erik 0.696
Webb Brandon 0.696
Hudson Tim 0.695
Perez Oliver 0.695
Loe Kameron D 0.692
Weaver Jeff 0.692
Santana Johan 0.692
Johnson Randy 0.69
Cain Matt 0.688
Trachsel Steve 0.679
Tomko Brett 0.679
Armas Jr. Tony 0.667
Hernandez Livan 0.663
Santos Victor 0.656
Davis Doug 0.656
Kazmir Scott E 0.652
Wang Chien-Ming 0.646
Moyer Jamie 0.646
Escobar Kelvim 0.643
Harang Aaron 0.643
Park Chan Ho 0.642
Blanton Joe M 0.639
Lieber Jon 0.635
Pettitte Andy 0.634
Hernandez Orlando 0.621
Millwood Kevin 0.619
Clement Matt 0.617
McClung Seth 0.597
Lidle Cory 0.589
Batista Miguel 0.585
Garland Jon 0.574


This is pretty close to my final numbers as well. My assumption is they're doing something a little different but these are obviously weighted heavily with Hit Rate. Great stuff! I'm still glad I did my calculations even if these are already available. Mine offer me more insight IMO. ;-D
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Postby beltrans_boy » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:26 pm

biju wrote:This is pretty close to my final numbers as well. My assumption is they're doing something a little different but these are obviously weighted heavily with Hit Rate. Great stuff! I'm still glad I did my calculations even if these are already available. Mine offer me more insight IMO. ;-D


There's a lot more to it than hit rate. DER is just a single statistic, you have to look at the whole picture (K/BB, HR/F, GB/FB, DER, LD%, etc.). It's simply too early in the season for these statistics to have any real relevance.

Of course, it's a fun metric to mess around with. Come May, identifying pitchers with extraordinarily high or low DERs (or other indicators) and making trades accordingly could help you win your league.
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Postby biju » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:36 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:
biju wrote:This is pretty close to my final numbers as well. My assumption is they're doing something a little different but these are obviously weighted heavily with Hit Rate. Great stuff! I'm still glad I did my calculations even if these are already available. Mine offer me more insight IMO. ;-D


There's a lot more to it than hit rate. DER is just a single statistic, you have to look at the whole picture (K/BB, HR/F, GB/FB, DER, LD%, etc.). It's simply too early in the season for these statistics to have any real relevance.

Of course, it's a fun metric to mess around with. Come May, identifying pitchers with extraordinarily high or low DERs (or other indicators) and making trades accordingly could help you win your league.


Exactly. Like I noted before I'm also using K/BB, HR/Game (instead of percentage of HR/flyballs), I noted when pitchers are groundball pitchers (the GB/FB ratio) as well as Hit Rate. I also threw in K/INN just to easily identify when a pitcher is striking out more or less people than he should.

While I agree that there will still be high relevance in May the statistical outliers will be fewer. This is good because it will be more pronounced in the eyes of the owners but getting an early jump on this may also help. Imagine if you offered a trade for Johan and the guy rejected it. The next time he has a bad outing that guy is going to think about your trade offer again and maybe come to you first to make a deal.

Of course you could also lowball him and he'll never do business with you again too. Fantasy Baseball players are certainly fickle. :-D
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Postby bigh0rt » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:38 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:
The Jury wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:If you guys want to check out the hit-rate for any pitcher in baseball, just check out Hardball Times' stats pages. For these purposes, DER is essentially the same thing.

.700 is average, anything under that is bad, anything above is good.

Check it out here


That's a dominant site, thanks ;-D


IMHO, it's the best baseball site on the internet. If you're looking for obscure pitching or hitting statistics, you can't beat THT. They also have some great articles on the main page.

A must-read for any baseball fan for sure.


What about this site? O:-)
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Postby beltrans_boy » Sat Apr 22, 2006 9:16 pm

bigh0rt wrote:What about this site? O:-)


Not even close, IMO. I love the Cafe, but sometimes there's so much garbage on these forums that it can be hard to find legitimate information.

;-D
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Postby patty cheeks » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:47 pm

great stuff again but not sure about Lidle. I don't think Lidle is a buy-low pitcher.
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Postby klvrdude » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:05 pm

biju wrote:The interesting point is actually how many balls are put into play. Pitchers certainly can become more or less dominant based on the day and other factors. The 30% mark has been accumulated statistically over the years and is the benchmark. Anything outside of 2 or so points show unlucky (or lucky in some cases) factors at work. Be sure to understand this isn't a measure of how dominant a pitcher is or whether he's throwing poorly or great, it's simply a measure of "luck". I wrestled with it for a while too while I was mentally chewing on the topic but came to the conclusion it was correct whether or not the pitcher is throwing well.


First off, great post.

I'm curious to know if the 30% watermark is good for ALL pitchers or just SP? The reason I ask is that I would think this could be skewed when talking about RP, closers in particular.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:20 pm

klvrdude wrote:
biju wrote:The interesting point is actually how many balls are put into play. Pitchers certainly can become more or less dominant based on the day and other factors. The 30% mark has been accumulated statistically over the years and is the benchmark. Anything outside of 2 or so points show unlucky (or lucky in some cases) factors at work. Be sure to understand this isn't a measure of how dominant a pitcher is or whether he's throwing poorly or great, it's simply a measure of "luck". I wrestled with it for a while too while I was mentally chewing on the topic but came to the conclusion it was correct whether or not the pitcher is throwing well.


First off, great post.

I'm curious to know if the 30% watermark is good for ALL pitchers or just SP? The reason I ask is that I would think this could be skewed when talking about RP, closers in particular.


In theory, the 30% benchmark is true for all pitchers.
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