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"Buy low" pitchers

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Postby MissingOakley » Sat Apr 22, 2006 6:30 pm

Before I think about making trade offers for these guys... your work is based on the idea that pitchers have little control over whether balls put into play become hits or outs. I've heard this talked about before. I've just never gotten fully comfortable with it. I feel like when a guy like Glavine is throwing well, righties are taking weak swings and hitting weak grounders off the end of the bat... but when a pitcher is struggling everything is line drives and he's lucky if they're caught.

So is your claim that the pitchers on your list will start throwing better pitches, which are more likely to induce weak swings... or that if these pitchers keep throwing exactly the same their WHIP and ERA will probably improve?

And most important, have people been successful targeting buy-low fantasy pitchers with this metric in the past?
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Postby Red Stripe » Sat Apr 22, 2006 6:34 pm

Nice and helpful post, by the way what's Johan's hit rate? He seems to be a buy low option considering how many people are freaking out about him here at the cafe in the game commentary section.
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Postby MMoNeY24 » Sat Apr 22, 2006 6:52 pm

Not so sure about the Garland and Lilly picks as I don't think either are anything that good; Lidle should be a FA in most mixed leagues. The rest look pretty good though.
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Postby The Jury » Sat Apr 22, 2006 6:58 pm

Red Stripe wrote:Nice and helpful post, by the way what's Johan's hit rate? He seems to be a buy low option considering how many people are freaking out about him here at the cafe in the game commentary section.


As an extension to this question, can we see the list? :-)
The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.
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Postby waterproof » Sat Apr 22, 2006 7:08 pm

Great post ;-D
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Postby beltrans_boy » Sat Apr 22, 2006 7:33 pm

If you guys want to check out the hit-rate for any pitcher in baseball, just check out Hardball Times' stats pages. For these purposes, DER is essentially the same thing.

.700 is average, anything under that is bad, anything above is good.

Check it out here
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Postby beltrans_boy » Sat Apr 22, 2006 7:38 pm

Also, keep in mind that it is way too early in the season to draw any reasonable conclusions about a pitchers K/BB, GB/FB or HR rates.
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Postby The Jury » Sat Apr 22, 2006 7:43 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:If you guys want to check out the hit-rate for any pitcher in baseball, just check out Hardball Times' stats pages. For these purposes, DER is essentially the same thing.

.700 is average, anything under that is bad, anything above is good.

Check it out here


That's a dominant site, thanks ;-D
The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Sat Apr 22, 2006 7:51 pm

The Jury wrote:
beltrans_boy wrote:If you guys want to check out the hit-rate for any pitcher in baseball, just check out Hardball Times' stats pages. For these purposes, DER is essentially the same thing.

.700 is average, anything under that is bad, anything above is good.

Check it out here


That's a dominant site, thanks ;-D


IMHO, it's the best baseball site on the internet. If you're looking for obscure pitching or hitting statistics, you can't beat THT. They also have some great articles on the main page.

A must-read for any baseball fan for sure.
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Postby Omaha Red Sox » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:03 pm

Great post! ;-D

How about this compliment:
Surfs up wrote:What site did you copy this from?
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