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"Sell High" pitchers

PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 12:31 pm
by biju
I did a little study on current pitchers stats and found some interesting results. The most interesting was hit rate percentage. It appears there are some pitchers highly benefitting from good luck which will *likely* turn on them at some point soon. So here's a list of the top 10 pitchers most likely to blow up sometime soon and are your best "sell high" candidates.

[The four stats I used are: K/INN, K/BB, HR/Game, Hit Rate%]

1. Brian Bannister - (2-0, 2.35, 1.30) - He's seriously benefitting from a low hit rate (22%). He's serving up more walks than Ks. His flyball outs are higher than ground outs and if his hit rate goes back to the mean (about 30%) he'll probably give up more HRs.

2. Jamey Wright - (2-0, 2.91, 1.20) - Again a seriously depressed Hit Rate (23%) but he's more of the groundball pitcher so an increased Hit Rate% won't increase HRs. Same walks problem as well.

3. Josh Beckett - (3-0, 2.54, 1.02) - Ok, first big name! Hit Rate (24%) is going to come back up and you'll see his WHIP take a hit. He's also dishing out a ton of walks and not enough Ks per inning, although his K rate should improve. If it doesn't he's going to be very mediocre. His Ws will keep piling up though with the Red Sox run support.

4. Greg Maddux - (3-0, 1.33, 0.69) - Of starting pitchers he has the best luck so far this year with a measly 19% hit rate. The last 3 years show he gives up 1+ HRs a game but is currently letting .44 HR/Game go out so expect this to effectively double. His K/BB is good but K/INN isn't (.69 K/INN) and that's not going to change. He's a great sell high candidate IMO.

5. Jose Contreras - (2-0, 1.29, 0.81) - Again the theme of this post is low hit rate% and Jose is low (21%). He's also benefitting from a lower than normal HR/Game (.43) but he is posting lower K/INN than usual. His ERA and WHIP will certainly head up once his luck runs out.

6. Mark Buehrle - (3-0, 1.93, 0.86) - Hit Rate% at 22% with depressed K/INN which should bounce up *a little*. He's also giving up a few too many walks for my tastes, especially when the hits start coming back.

7. Barry Zito - (1-2, 5.48, 1.12) - Sorry ZIG, this guy is about to burn up. A 23% hit rate is going to climb and with the amount of walks given up expect a sharp incline in WHIP. One thing to note however is while the HR/Game will double from its current .42 his ERA *should* decline. The worst about this is since he doesn't have the wins he'll be tough to deal. You might be best served to hold onto him to see if he can keep his luck up and run off a couple Ws and *then* get out fast.

8. Rich Harden - (3-0, 3.58, 1.08) - Low hit rate (24%) should return to the mean. His walk rate is a little elevated and if that can be corrected he'd be on the right side of this evaluation but if the BB stay as is and the hits start coming he's going to eat your WHIP up.

9. Ervin Santana - (1-0, 3.93, 1.14) - He's across the board with red flags right now. Depressed hit rate% (25%), low K/INN (.49), high walk rate and really high HR/Game (nearly 2!) indicates he's about to get pounded.

10. Chris Young - (2-0, 2.95, 0.87) - His K/INN are higher than normal for him, although this could be improved skill. His hit rate% is waaay too low (20%) for this to sustain. On the upside he's giving up more HR/Game than he has in the past so expect that to drop even though ERA and WHIP will climb. He's a great sell high guy.

Alright, now be nice and please give me feedback. I'm interested to know what people think and if they believe my numbers are garbage or hold merit. If you guys like this I can also post a "buy low" thread as well since that's what this exercise was originally done for.

-M

[edit: added in the W-L, ERA, WHIP numbers for later comparison]

PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 12:36 pm
by teddy ballgame
Good post. Thanks for sharing your research. ;-D Good stuff.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 12:42 pm
by Grouperman941
Awesome list. Happy none of my SPs are on it. :-)

Always hard to work on stuff like this during the season.

Great idea on the buy low list.

If you have all this in a big table, I'd also like to see SPs who are doing well with an average or poor hit rate, indicating they could/should improve for a stretch.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 12:51 pm
by FrogStamp
Nice research. I'd also like to see some buy low candidates if you have the time.

Re: Pitchers about to be in hot water

PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 12:59 pm
by Insanity
I'm only going to reply to a few of them that I can..


biju wrote:3. Josh Beckett - Ok, first big name! Hit Rate (24%) is going to come back up and you'll see his WHIP take a hit. He's also dishing out a ton of walks and not enough Ks per inning, although his K rate should improve. If it doesn't he's going to be very mediocre. His Ws will keep piling up though with the Red Sox run support.


I was in the minority and thought he was overrated coming into the season. He went from pitching in Dolphin Stadium to Fenway.. Went from facing the Mets, Phillies, Braves, and Nats to the Orioles, Yankees and Rising Blue Jays and Devil Rays. And moved to the more devastating to pitcher american league (i tend to favor NL pitchers).

biju wrote:4. Greg Maddux - Of starting pitchers he has the best luck so far this year with a measly 19% hit rate. The last 3 years show he gives up 1+ HRs a game but is currently letting .44 HR/Game go out so expect this to effectively double. His K/BB is good but K/INN isn't (.69 K/INN) and that's not going to change. He's a great sell high candidate IMO.


He's consistent, but I do expect a little rise in all stats. But he's shut down St. Louis and Cincy, not exactly easy tasks.

biju wrote:10. Chris Young - His K/INN are higher than normal for him, although this could be improved skill. His hit rate% is waaay too low (20%) for this to sustain. On the upside he's giving up more HR/Game than he has in the past so expect that to drop even though ERA and WHIP will climb. He's a great sell high guy.


The reverse Josh Beckett.. He's a fly ball pitcher going to a pitchers dream.. He's only downside is he has to pitch in Colorado. He has a great K/BB ratio and that's been consistent. He lets the ball get put in play. Playinig in a pitchers park and facing pitchers will benefit him more. He's a do not sell unless you get really high value in return.


Good analysis over all, but I still think it might be too early.. Be curious to see where Halladay, Schilling, Randy Johnson, Santana fit in..

PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:08 pm
by wrveres
thats four starts ...
Three from most :-o

PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:12 pm
by SeovyeQuirsefron
Great Post!!!

Thank You.

I just picked up Bannister as a FA to fill a hole created when Colon went on the DL. I like his matchups over the next couple of weeks. After that, we'll see.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:12 pm
by biju
wrveres wrote:thats four starts ...
Three from most :-o


That's actually kind of the point. Their luck hasn't had the time to reverse itself yet so they appear to be doing really good when in fact they're getting lucky. Given more starts these numbers will "normalize" and you won't be able to sell them higher than they should go.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:16 pm
by wrveres
biju wrote:
wrveres wrote:thats four starts ...
Three from most :-o


That's actually kind of the point. Their luck hasn't had the time to reverse itself yet so they appear to be doing really good when in fact they're getting lucky. Given more starts these numbers will "normalize" and you won't be able to sell them higher than they should go.


Ok I see what you are getting at ..

The only two guys on that list I would would about would be Wright, Bannister and maybe Santana.

the rest will be fine.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:20 pm
by 5
Nice list biju. Like some, not a big fan of Beckett switching leagues. Maddux is pitching way too much like vintage Maddux to sustain the success...couple that w/D.Lee going down - will hurt his win potential. Definitey a great sell high guy. As a Met fan, I like Bannister but he lets up way too many baserunners - it's gonna give at some point.

I kinda like C.Young in Petco so I don't think I'd sell on him...unless the value is return is larger than his of course.

How much are you accounting for matchups with these guys? i.e. Bannister against the Nationals & Padres...

Yeah, we'd like to see a buy low list as well.