Return to Baseball Leftovers

"Sell High" pitchers

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby mak1277 » Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:59 pm

5 wrote:=Maddux is pitching way too much like vintage Maddux to sustain the success.


I'm not sure I understand this comment. I don't expect Maddux to win the Cy Young or anything, but I don't know why we shouldn't expect a vast improvement over last year. If his conditioning is really that much better than it has been in recent years, I don't think a rebound year is out of the question.

Please don't read this as me thinking he'll have an ERA under 2.00 all year. I don't think it will be over 4 though, and his WHIP has never been high.
mak1277
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 4567
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 14 Nov 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Northern Virginia

Postby AngelFan416 » Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:57 pm

Good read, and I like the list.

I'm a bit surprised that Harden would be on the list, but I see. Please do a buy low list.
AngelFan416
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 281
Joined: 12 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Bay Area

Re: Pitchers about to be in hot water

Postby TheYanks04 » Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:59 pm

biju wrote:I did a little study on current pitchers stats and found some interesting results. The most interesting was hit rate percentage. It appears there are some pitchers highly benefitting from good luck which will *likely* turn on them at some point soon. So here's a list of the top 10 pitchers most likely to blow up sometime soon and are your best "sell high" candidates.

[The four stats I used are: K/INN, K/BB, HR/Game, Hit Rate%]

1. Brian Bannister - He's seriously benefitting from a low hit rate (22%). He's serving up more walks than Ks. His flyball outs are higher than ground outs and if his hit rate goes back to the mean (about 30%) he'll probably give up more HRs.

2. Jamey Wright - Again a seriously depressed Hit Rate (23%) but he's more of the groundball pitcher so an increased Hit Rate% won't increase HRs. Same walks problem as well.

3. Josh Beckett - Ok, first big name! Hit Rate (24%) is going to come back up and you'll see his WHIP take a hit. He's also dishing out a ton of walks and not enough Ks per inning, although his K rate should improve. If it doesn't he's going to be very mediocre. His Ws will keep piling up though with the Red Sox run support.

4. Greg Maddux - Of starting pitchers he has the best luck so far this year with a measly 19% hit rate. The last 3 years show he gives up 1+ HRs a game but is currently letting .44 HR/Game go out so expect this to effectively double. His K/BB is good but K/INN isn't (.69 K/INN) and that's not going to change. He's a great sell high candidate IMO.

5. Jose Contreras - Again the theme of this post is low hit rate% and Jose is low (21%). He's also benefitting from a lower than normal HR/Game (.43) but he is posting lower K/INN than usual. His ERA and WHIP will certainly head up once his luck runs out.

6. Mark Buehrle - Hit Rate% at 22% with depressed K/INN which should bounce up *a little*. He's also giving up a few too many walks for my tastes, especially when the hits start coming back.

7. Barry Zito - Sorry ZIG, this guy is about to burn up. A 23% hit rate is going to climb and with the amount of walks given up expect a sharp incline in WHIP. One thing to note however is while the HR/Game will double from its current .42 his ERA *should* decline. The worst about this is since he doesn't have the wins he'll be tough to deal. You might be best served to hold onto him to see if he can keep his luck up and run off a couple Ws and *then* get out fast.

8. Rich Harden - Low hit rate (24%) should return to the mean. His walk rate is a little elevated and if that can be corrected he'd be on the right side of this evaluation but if the BB stay as is and the hits start coming he's going to eat your WHIP up.

9. Ervin Santana - He's across the board with red flags right now. Depressed hit rate% (25%), low K/INN (.49), high walk rate and really high HR/Game (nearly 2!) indicates he's about to get pounded.

10. Chris Young - His K/INN are higher than normal for him, although this could be improved skill. His hit rate% is waaay too low (20%) for this to sustain. On the upside he's giving up more HR/Game than he has in the past so expect that to drop even though ERA and WHIP will climb. He's a great sell high guy.

Alright, now be nice and please give me feedback. I'm interested to know what people think and if they believe my numbers are garbage or hold merit. If you guys like this I can also post a "buy low" thread as well since that's what this exercise was originally done for.

-M



If stats like these predicted pitcher's future performance, then we would all have ace staffs im fantasy. Common sense needs to apply to all these for a reasonable guestimate to be made.

1. Bannister: High wlak rate is disturbing. I would be nervous here because walks are NOT a good thing. That said, he could be just one of those Cone-like pitchers that manages to escape regularly. Be careful.

2. Jamey Wright: Has always stunk and likely always will. Implosion coming since he is just not very good.

3. Beckett: Certainly has greta talent...His numbers should fall in line with most people's pre-season guestimates (high 3 to low 4 ERA imo). It is the AL East. He could be very good and be better than that though. He could also get a blister and miss 3 months.


4. Maddux: Is in a contract year. I doubt he has reverted back to optimal form, but it would not be too surprising to see a very solid season out of him with a 3.5 or less ERA.

5. Contreras: Has been Jekyl and Hyde in the past...who knows if he has solved his head problems or whether he has a few implosions along the way.


6. Buehrle: Has been good for awhile and there is no reason to assume he will not be good this year to his statistical norms.


7. Zito: Another Jekyl and Hyde guy. He should be OK imo. Though he will give a lot of people some agita.


8. Harden: Quality SP and should be so if he is healthy.


9. Ervin Santana: Overhyped and unproven...seen nothing to change that opinion.

10. Chris Young: Medicority and should pitch to it. Park will keep him fantasy worthy in all liklihood.
TheYanks04
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero


Posts: 9473
(Past Year: -58)
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby CPHFighter1 » Sat Apr 22, 2006 3:13 pm

This is good research, but I wouldn't go selling Maddux, Harden, or Buehrle based on these stats. It's a pretty small sample size we're dealing with here, and those guys have not built their careers around "luck".

I'm interested to see the buy low list if you can put it together.
CPHFighter1
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 315
(Past Year: -1)
Joined: 7 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby PlayingWithFire » Sat Apr 22, 2006 3:13 pm

em, do you have the reverse of that?
Are you interested in joining a 28 teams dynasty league? If so, PM me.
PlayingWithFire
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13016
(Past Year: -246)
Joined: 7 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Manhattan, KS

Postby biju » Sat Apr 22, 2006 3:59 pm

I just got back from picking my GF up at the airport so I'll start putting together the "buy low" list now.

Thanks for the feedback guys. Keep in mind this isn't really so much of me "expecting" these guys to slip, it's purely the numbers and highly based on hit rate percentage. I think I'm going to add in the ERA, WHIP and W-L records to this as well so maybe I can revisit this in a month or so when there's a bigger sample size.

;-D
biju
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1073
(Past Year: -4)
Joined: 6 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby mweir145 » Sat Apr 22, 2006 4:00 pm

Great post, it's good to know about stuff like that. ;-D
25
mweir145
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Eagle Eye
Posts: 16464
(Past Year: -320)
Joined: 3 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Toronto

Postby 5 » Sat Apr 22, 2006 4:06 pm

mak1277 wrote:
5 wrote:=Maddux is pitching way too much like vintage Maddux to sustain the success.


I'm not sure I understand this comment. I don't expect Maddux to win the Cy Young or anything, but I don't know why we shouldn't expect a vast improvement over last year. If his conditioning is really that much better than it has been in recent years, I don't think a rebound year is out of the question.

Please don't read this as me thinking he'll have an ERA under 2.00 all year. I don't think it will be over 4 though, and his WHIP has never been high.


I just meant that Maddux looks eerily like the Maddux of old...he's 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA and an 0.69 WHIP. He's still a solid pitcher but his name and outstanding performance so far makes him a good sell-high guy despite the expected rebound.
5
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2291
(Past Year: -5)
Joined: 24 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Apr 22, 2006 4:18 pm

Hit rate% doesn't predict anything, nor does it try too. What is does, it paint a picture of what ACTUALLY happened. Hit rate % of 27% and lower, will skew era in the pitchers favor. Translation, he got lucky. The normal hit rate % for pitchers is 30%. So you can see, Bannister is a bomb ready to explode, IF his hit rate % hovers around 30%. Now no one can predict hit rate%. Maddux could just as easily sport a 35% hit rate the rest of the way, as opposed to a 25% rate. These are small sample sizes, and over a season, few get under 25%. So you can see how the 19 % and 22 % hit rate %, have badly skewed the eras. My advice. Say goodbye to Bannister. Sell Maddux while he's on a lucky streak. Don't worry about proven products like Harden/Buehrle.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15442
(Past Year: 495)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Sat Apr 22, 2006 4:21 pm

biju, thanks for putting the work into this. The only one I disagree on is Chris Young, but that's some nice research. Can't wait for the buy low list.
BillyHallDisciple
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2850
Joined: 1 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron