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Updated Stat projections for Shelton?

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Postby Matthias » Thu Apr 13, 2006 1:43 pm

Philliebuster wrote:But as stated earlier, Shelton has batted for power in the minors and for a great average.


now that's just not true really. average, sure. but power?

in 1,186 minor-league ABs, he had 48 HRs, one every 22. if you take out his single-A ball, though, you have only 8 HRs out of 365 ABs, one out of every 45 ABs. that's not great power.
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Postby Philliebuster » Thu Apr 13, 2006 1:52 pm

Matthias wrote:
Philliebuster wrote:But as stated earlier, Shelton has batted for power in the minors and for a great average.


now that's just not true really. average, sure. but power?

in 1,186 minor-league ABs, he had 48 HRs, one every 22. if you take out his single-A ball, though, you have only 8 HRs out of 365 ABs, one out of every 45 ABs. that's not great power.


I was looking at basically his most 3 recent years in the minors...must have developed somehting. Your sample size includes what appears to be an anomoly in 2003 in AA-Altoona, where he had 122 AB's and ZERO homers. After going to A-Lynchburg and forward you see 558 AB's and 30 homers, and throw in MLB 2005 stats 388/18homers, we see about 30 homeruns per season average....he could be developing more power.
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Postby The Jury » Thu Apr 13, 2006 2:01 pm

bellings wrote:I don't think that anyone really believes that he'll stay at number 1. (Maybe some people in public leagues..., but no one here.) I'm just saying that we shouldn't completely disregard that a week into the season, he's the #1 guy. The Cafe's position rankings have him as the 20th best 1B. I think that it's reasonable to say that he'll finish the year better than that.


It's one week into the season - relax. There's also something known as the Law of Averages ;-)
The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.
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Postby roninmedia » Thu Apr 13, 2006 2:03 pm

Is his hot start vindicative of Derek Lee or Brian Roberts? I believe it is somewhere in between. I have him hitting in the high 20's or low 30's in HRs with about 90 RBI and 90 Runs. RBIs will increase if he is moved up in the line-up.
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Postby Grandma's Pujol » Thu Apr 13, 2006 2:20 pm

another ding dong for shelton.
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Postby Philliebuster » Thu Apr 13, 2006 2:32 pm

Grandma's Pujol wrote:another ding dong for shelton.


#7, a two run shot. Alls I can say is I'm glad I got him. Those that don't can dismiss all they want; but i'm enjoying the ride. Almost at 10 hr's already. I'm thinking 40 by the end of this season!
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Postby Dan Lambskin » Thu Apr 13, 2006 3:20 pm

The Jury wrote:
bellings wrote:I don't think that anyone really believes that he'll stay at number 1. (Maybe some people in public leagues..., but no one here.) I'm just saying that we shouldn't completely disregard that a week into the season, he's the #1 guy. The Cafe's position rankings have him as the 20th best 1B. I think that it's reasonable to say that he'll finish the year better than that.


It's one week into the season - relax. There's also something known as the Law of Averages ;-)


he's only 25 though, so it's not like he's some 32 year old that all of a sudden just started raking. i drafted him thinking i'd get a 300 AVG and 25 HR...i'm thinking 30+ is now a defiante possibility and i wouldnt be suprised if he hit 40 (note: i dont expect this, but i wouldnt be totally suprised now...also, i cant believe i'm saying this either. i'm a Tigers fan, i should know better)
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Postby thehotcorner » Thu Apr 13, 2006 4:43 pm

my guess is something around 300-85-33-105 and he could EASILY outperform that.

assume 600AB over a full season if you project what he did last year to 550 AB and add what he has done so far, he ends up with a line of something like 310-100-32-100.

there is of course a very good chance that, while he will obviously not hit this well for the rest of the season, he will be slightly better than he was last year. that projects to some hefty figures. definitely a steal for me at $2.
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