Apollo wrote:I think this particular bit of analysis only holds water in relatively deep leagues. In that case, when you're basically stuck with the person you pick, variation is a lot more important. But (and I know we're supposed to ignore the example, but it's all I've got to work with), I can pick someone up off the waiver wire in most leagues that is comparable to Green. If Drew flames out again, I still won't be losing much by choosing him over Green.Player A, however, has the following performance over the prior 4 years (I'll just use OPS for summary): 700, 950, 700, 850
Player B has the following: 800, 800, 800, 800
Which player would you choose?
The info that's missing is the best person on the waiver wire. If that player runs 775, 775, 775, 775, give me player A--he's not really that much of a risk. If, on the other hand, the best player on the waiver wire goes 600, 600, 600, 600, I might be more tempted to take player B.
That's an excellent point, Apollo. My main league is 16 team with 25 roster and 3 DL slots, so it's tough to get good replacement value on the waiver wire. Really, the bottom end production for a player should be based on replacement level, rather than actual production (or some weighted combination of the two, assuming that you'd probably continue to trot Player A out there for a few weeks/months when he was awful before dumping his sorry butt for waiver material.)