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Postby stoner420 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 10:59 pm

i think alot of it depends on your league settings. If you play in a standard roto league... then by all means... dont worry too much about statistics. Most people who youll read already will do the work for you. But if you are in a league thats non- standard roto... it is essential to do research. If you take the lazy just pick by your gut method... sure youll do fine... but in the long run how much better are you going to do vs the rest of your league?

if you really want to win, youve got to find ways to exploit your leagues scoring system. I never do standard leagues, so i wouldnt know how those work... but from my experience, the same people keep finishing in similar positions..because its not luck. its preperation and attention.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 11:04 pm

I don't see that much value in 'projections', as far as trying to guess whether a guy will hit 15 or 20 or 25 taters but I like to read for entertainment so I get BP and also Forecaster and hang out here.
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Postby great gretzky » Mon Mar 27, 2006 11:14 pm

I kind of agree. I have had mixed success in the three years that I have played roto baseball. Won a few leagues, finished in the top third a couple times, and a few mediocre to bad teams.

I think the thing that saves my hide, given my "ok" baseball knowledge is that a) I love the strategy of it, but b) look at this game as a series of relative values.

The projections part of it seems to me as arbitrary to a degree. No obviosuly, not arbitrary to the degree that you project torii hunter to hit 32 hr's. But basically, I look at the players in the tiers, and mentally graduate them within that tier.

Projecting to +/- 5 home runs, or 10 rbi seems too random for me, and too hard to do.

And the other thing I think is that with the good guys, but the streaky ones, how many stats do you "miss" by trying to be too finicky with who you play?

I guess my point is that it seems too hard to both predict these small variations with in your tiers AND know to play them. It seems if you slightly screw up either of those, you could be knocking 10 hr's (or relevant stat off), but the variance is too much to actually do it?

I think there are other ways to apply strategy. Yea, you need a projection baseline, but after that, things like your opponent's tendencies, scarcity, both perceived and real, and a stat attack are more worthwhile.
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Postby glcmustliveon » Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:53 am

This is the first year I have really prepared and studied for the draft, I probably started about two months ago, and I felt it made a HUGE difference, the four drafts ive done have been very easy because all i had to do was react to how others were drafting....
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Postby AcidRock23 » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:03 am

glcmustliveon wrote:This is the first year I have really prepared and studied for the draft, I probably started about two months ago, and I felt it made a HUGE difference, the four drafts ive done have been very easy because all i had to do was react to how others were drafting....


I definitely study, as far as staying on top of what's going on and also reading BP and Forecaster, but I think that projections kind of reach the point where the investment of time is not necessarily going to yield a tremendous payback. I think that familiarizing oneself w/ the 'market' is a good idea but not to the extent of figuring out what each player will hit. We have some 'baseball fans' in our office league who generally print off a few Yahoo position rankings and read stuff online their prep and they usually run out of creative ideas by the 10th or 11th round and slow the draft down.

Also, I'm still waiting to see projections where the MLB hitters total HR = the total HR given up by all pitchers, which seems like it would be a relatively simple way to benchmark ones projections but, whenever I think 'maybe I should go nutso reading a miniscule spreadsheet' I SUM the HR columns and they are always off. I suppose I might glean something about the 'nature' of a projection from the degree to which they are different but that'd involve developing a degree of familiarity w/ the projections in the first place.

That was the most amusing part of "Fantasyland" for me, reading about a guy getting a NASA analyst and an Astrologer and a 'character' for lack of a better word and schmoozing tons of data together. And still paying $12 for Sidney Ponson. LOL...
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Postby glcmustliveon » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:06 am

was 'fantasy land' a good read? i heard about it on cbs :-P
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Postby AcidRock23 » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:12 am

glcmustliveon wrote:was 'fantasy land' a good read? i heard about it on cbs :-P


It was funny as hell!! Very amusing read. I was able to snag it via interlibrary loan but it's probably worth the price, if only b/c it'll keep you from making silly, twitchy waiver wire moves waiting for Opening Day! I haven't done an auction league but the 'market' structure might actually make the book a bit more intelligible to a non-fantasy audience. I had gone through the same season w/ some of the same players but he got MORE involved, asking Big Papi if he should trade him (Ortiz) for Soriano and picketing the Angels games when José Guillen was suspended for his antics.

I'd give it a big ;-D
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Postby THE TERMINATOR » Tue Mar 28, 2006 5:31 am

What I do is set my pre-ranking to ESPN's Average Live Draft results.

So that going into the draft you know the players that should be drafted.

And all you have to do is seat back let everone draft look for the ones that drop and if you think they are a risky pick you pass but if you think they are good value then that the guy you take.

And usely stick to it entell the last few rounds when I like to take a few over looked break out kind of players.

So the long and short of it is that going into a draft I don't look to draft given players but more of taking what I'm given although a player over looked in one draft offen ends up over looked again in another draft and I end up drafting them again.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Tue Mar 28, 2006 7:30 am

I didn't do any research for fantasy baseball at all really...I just found two cheatsheets I thought were decent in order to figure out the relative player values and then picked who I thought would do good or bad just on how I thought they would do this year. As long as you pay attention during the year and find a few WW gems you can do just fine even with a cruddy draft. ;-D
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Postby tgalv » Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:33 am

i find it helpful to at least review the stats from last year and make comparisons between players. sometimes i'll find my opinion has gotten a bit biased because of having or not having a certain player on my roster.

and it's also helpful to get familiar with the consensus rankings so you can have a feel for where players will likely be picked. you can identify which players and combinations of players you can take in the draft. this year i really like the #1 pick. i'd take Arod then hopefully take helton and utley when it comes back to me.

and whoever said it's mostly luck, i completely disagree. it plays a factor obviously but when i play with my usual groups of people, i can tell you right now before the draft, which teams are going to make the playoffs and which managers are just too dumb to have a winning team.
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