GotowarMissAgnes wrote:warrick95 wrote:I think people are getting too optimistic with the power predictions. While he did hit a few in limited action last year, he doesn't project as more than a low 20s home run hitter, because he simply isn't a slugger type. In college, he was a good BA hitter who had gap power. That should bode well for him in the large alleys of Comerica. His 2004 home run numbers (Erie) were aided by his home park.
I think you underestimate his power. He also had 50 XBH in A+ ball and 22 XBH (in 212 AB) in rookie ball.
He'll also need to cut down on those Ks a little. 129/48 K/BB ratio isn't horrible, but the K number is rather high for a leadoff man. I don't see him as the Sizemorelike players that y'all do and if power/speed is what you want, I would rather take a flyer on Corey Patterson. Despite seemingly being around for forever, Patterson is only a year and a half older than Granderson. It's not like his bat is irreversibly bad. At a younger age at AAA (22), Patterson had a 65/29 K/BB ratio in 89 games. Granderson's was 129/48 in 111 games at age 24.
The danger with looking just at BB/K ratios is it ignores a lot of other important information. Like, for instance, the fact that Patterson's Iowa park is an even better hitter's park than Erie. And, for example, the fact that Granderson posted a .290 BA, .359 OBP, amd .515 SLG with those ratios, while Patterson posted a .253 BA, .308 OBP, and .387 SLG. One tells the story of a player that needs to work on his plate discipline, but makes good contact, works the count to get walks, and hits the ball with excellent power when he makes contact. The other tells a story of a player that has below average plate discipline, below average contact skills, below average ability to work the count and below average ability to drive the ball when he makes contact.
What was Sizemore's BB/K ratios last year? 132/52
If Granderson gets 550+ ABs, he'll go 20/20 this year. The top end of his ability is told by his comparable list, which includes the name Abreu on it. I'd much rather take the chance on that happening than on Patterson.[/quote]
The danger that y'all aren't seeing here is that y'all are expecting him to basically fulfill his potential (because he is not going to become much more than a 20-20 player) in his first full season. That's a lot to ask; I am not going to lie.
You do know that we're comparing numbers of a 24 year old Granderson, who had completed college, with a 22 year old Patterson. Duh, Corey's got some of the worst strike zone judgment and hitting ability that you'll ever see. However, given his enormous power/speed abilities (which blows Granderson's tools in this respective categories out of the water) and his big league experience (despite it being pretty bad for the most part), I'd rather take a risk on Patterson. I posted just the K/BB to simplify the situation. I didn't feel like typing all the stuff I just did.
I'm not underestimating his power because he simply doesn't have that much. His bat's probably his best tool and even that's not that great. All-around good player, though. You're throwing out numbers in rookie ball and A+ ball, but you have to remember that this is a drafted college player we're talking about. Considering the fact that a. they are just about done filling out and b. are more mature physically and in hitting, college players sure as hell better rip the lower levels up. If you notice a consistent trend, most good college players thrive in OBP and power in the lower levels.
Crunch numbers all y'all want, but the scouts are generally at a consensus that despite the numbers, his upside is probably at the 20/20 or so level, as his tools are just about average to slightly above average across the board. To expect him to not have growing pains at all is preposterous. The jump from AAA to a full season in the MLB is much more considerable than y'all think.