thinkspin wrote:swyck wrote:If all the stats are low at more or less the same rate, then its still a useful guide to how players will do compared with each other.
Frankly I dont need a specific player to hit X HRs, I need my team of players to do better as a whole then the other teams of players. As long as I'm grabbing the better players all around I should be fine.
This is not true. Players that are outliers in the valuation curve are more valuable or less valuable based on how far they differentiate themselves from the mean. Grouping everyone closer to the mean takes away from this. Do it over 4 cumulative categories used in the standard 5x5 for hitting and you will be way off.
Besides, there is NO way to predict the outliers. Read Tom Tango's article on Hardball Times a few weeks ago. Individual predictions are not of great use. What fantasy players should focus on is picking a group of hitters (say 15 guys) who have an average HR (or BA, or RBI, etc. performance that will compete in the category. Eeven though the individual predictions for almost every one of those hitters will be off, the average performance wil be very, very close to what the predicted average performance was.