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Rotoworld on Teixeira

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Postby MotorCityKitties » Thu Mar 16, 2006 5:56 pm

Wharton93 wrote:
MotorCityKitties wrote:I think this is a very valid topic to discuss.


Actually, the "topic" was the Rotoworld article that somebody posted (and then quickly distanced himself from) that said, to paraphrase, "Teix is 0-12 in the WBC, he sucks away from Arlington and they should have picked Hafner if they wanted to better utilize the roster spot."

That article is a piece of crap for many reasons.

--0-12 doesn't matter...too small a sample size and many players are struggling at the plate

--he doesn't suck away from Arlington (he's just not hitting 30 HR on the road like he does at home). But he's far from suck. Adjust his road stats for the pitchers parks that fill the AL West and give him 'league average' teammates, and his numbers would inflate nicely. (league average meaning...many of his teammates on Texas do suck on the road (I think Texas is 10th in road AVG and 11th in OBP?)..so give him league average players)

--Hafner is a terrible choice for 'better utilization' of a roster spot...the guy is BJ Upton in the field and limited to DH. Teix won a gold glove last year. Pick somebody else perhaps, but Hafner can't be the poster boy for better utilization if he can't even be put in the field. That's just silly.

Other than that, the Rotoworld comments are absolutely insightful...


Sorry for the confusion, but by "valid topic" I was referring to Tex's road splits. I agree that the 0-12 is too small a sample size. Never in my post did I mention anything about the WBC.

On another note, Teixeira does play in the AL West. It doesn't matter what you do to inflate his numbers, he will still play in SEA, OAK and LAA. Until this changes I would not draft him in the first half of the first round, especially in a H2H league. Your inflated numbers theory may back up the idea of him being a better road hitter, but it won't change the numbers that count for your fantasy team.
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Postby TurdFerguson » Fri Mar 17, 2006 1:35 am

MotorCityKitties wrote:
Wharton93 wrote:
MotorCityKitties wrote:I think this is a very valid topic to discuss.


Actually, the "topic" was the Rotoworld article that somebody posted (and then quickly distanced himself from) that said, to paraphrase, "Teix is 0-12 in the WBC, he sucks away from Arlington and they should have picked Hafner if they wanted to better utilize the roster spot."

That article is a piece of crap for many reasons.

--0-12 doesn't matter...too small a sample size and many players are struggling at the plate

--he doesn't suck away from Arlington (he's just not hitting 30 HR on the road like he does at home). But he's far from suck. Adjust his road stats for the pitchers parks that fill the AL West and give him 'league average' teammates, and his numbers would inflate nicely. (league average meaning...many of his teammates on Texas do suck on the road (I think Texas is 10th in road AVG and 11th in OBP?)..so give him league average players)

--Hafner is a terrible choice for 'better utilization' of a roster spot...the guy is BJ Upton in the field and limited to DH. Teix won a gold glove last year. Pick somebody else perhaps, but Hafner can't be the poster boy for better utilization if he can't even be put in the field. That's just silly.

Other than that, the Rotoworld comments are absolutely insightful...


Sorry for the confusion, but by "valid topic" I was referring to Tex's road splits. I agree that the 0-12 is too small a sample size. Never in my post did I mention anything about the WBC.

On another note, Teixeira does play in the AL West. It doesn't matter what you do to inflate his numbers, he will still play in SEA, OAK and LAA. Until this changes I would not draft him in the first half of the first round, especially in a H2H league. Your inflated numbers theory may back up the idea of him being a better road hitter, but it won't change the numbers that count for your fantasy team.
yeah I dont wont someone who puts up .300avg 44hr 143rbi 112R 40dbls.His upside isnt very high either
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Postby Yoda » Fri Mar 17, 2006 1:48 am

Wharton93 wrote:
MotorCityKitties wrote:I think this is a very valid topic to discuss.


Actually, the "topic" was the Rotoworld article that somebody posted (and then quickly distanced himself from) that said, to paraphrase, "Teix is 0-12 in the WBC, he sucks away from Arlington and they should have picked Hafner if they wanted to better utilize the roster spot."

That article is a piece of crap for many reasons.

--0-12 doesn't matter...too small a sample size and many players are struggling at the plate

--he doesn't suck away from Arlington (he's just not hitting 30 HR on the road like he does at home). But he's far from suck. Adjust his road stats for the pitchers parks that fill the AL West and give him 'league average' teammates, and his numbers would inflate nicely. (league average meaning...many of his teammates on Texas do suck on the road (I think Texas is 10th in road AVG and 11th in OBP?)..so give him league average players)

--Hafner is a terrible choice for 'better utilization' of a roster spot...the guy is BJ Upton in the field and limited to DH. Teix won a gold glove last year. Pick somebody else perhaps, but Hafner can't be the poster boy for better utilization if he can't even be put in the field. That's just silly.

Other than that, the Rotoworld comments are absolutely insightful...


1) Make it 0-15.
2) You are right. Teixeira doesn't suck on the road. However, consider his career road #s: .253 AVG, .334 OBP, .454 SLG, .788 OPS. And averages about 29 HR (I rounded up) per 162 games.
3) Contrary to what you say, Hafner is an adequate fielder. He didn't play the field in 05 due to his injury. He will play 1B this year.

I still would have gone with Hafner over Teixeira for WBC but...

EDIT: Based on 2005 stats, Teix's .809 OPS on the road would have ranked 12th among all 1B behind Nick Johnson, Mike Sweeney and Lyle Overbay. Just ahead of Sean Casey and Dmitri Young. But yes, he is a monster at home!
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Postby AcidRock23 » Fri Mar 17, 2006 2:02 am

Wharton93 wrote:
--Hafner is a terrible choice for 'better utilization' of a roster spot...the guy is BJ Upton in the field and limited to DH. Teix won a gold glove last year. Pick somebody else perhaps, but Hafner can't be the poster boy for better utilization if he can't even be put in the field. That's just silly.


Uh Hafner is a guy who will likely put up #s of the same order of magnitude as Teix and may even vulture enough PT at 1B to qualify and is likely to be available in the 3-5th-ish round. I still agree that Teix is good but he didn't hit .300 last year until he tore it up at the end, which is a great deal of use in the fantasy playoffs but may have adversely affected your chances of getting there. I'd say it was one of the shakier .300 performances out there. Not that it REALLY matters but in July when you click on your team's 'season stats' and your 1st rd pick (not that Teix was picked there last year...) is hitting .270 or even .280, you have to wonder. I know where he ended up but did you click on the game log to see how his BA played out all year? He was on my team and I'm INTIMATELY familiar w/ it!! Although I will grant him some 'upside' for whatever that's worth... :-? :-D
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Postby MotorCityKitties » Fri Mar 17, 2006 4:26 am

TurdFerguson wrote:
MotorCityKitties wrote:
Wharton93 wrote:
MotorCityKitties wrote:I think this is a very valid topic to discuss.


Actually, the "topic" was the Rotoworld article that somebody posted (and then quickly distanced himself from) that said, to paraphrase, "Teix is 0-12 in the WBC, he sucks away from Arlington and they should have picked Hafner if they wanted to better utilize the roster spot."

That article is a piece of crap for many reasons.

--0-12 doesn't matter...too small a sample size and many players are struggling at the plate

--he doesn't suck away from Arlington (he's just not hitting 30 HR on the road like he does at home). But he's far from suck. Adjust his road stats for the pitchers parks that fill the AL West and give him 'league average' teammates, and his numbers would inflate nicely. (league average meaning...many of his teammates on Texas do suck on the road (I think Texas is 10th in road AVG and 11th in OBP?)..so give him league average players)

--Hafner is a terrible choice for 'better utilization' of a roster spot...the guy is BJ Upton in the field and limited to DH. Teix won a gold glove last year. Pick somebody else perhaps, but Hafner can't be the poster boy for better utilization if he can't even be put in the field. That's just silly.

Other than that, the Rotoworld comments are absolutely insightful...


Sorry for the confusion, but by "valid topic" I was referring to Tex's road splits. I agree that the 0-12 is too small a sample size. Never in my post did I mention anything about the WBC.

On another note, Teixeira does play in the AL West. It doesn't matter what you do to inflate his numbers, he will still play in SEA, OAK and LAA. Until this changes I would not draft him in the first half of the first round, especially in a H2H league. Your inflated numbers theory may back up the idea of him being a better road hitter, but it won't change the numbers that count for your fantasy team.
yeah I dont wont someone who puts up .300avg 44hr 143rbi 112R 40dbls.His upside isnt very high either


Hey TurdFerg,

You can derelic my balls. Just kidding

I guess some of us are just more concerned about the road splits than others. I personally never said he doesn't have upside. My main point is that I would take him with the third pick in a roto league, but not H2H.

And, I like your av.
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Postby Laean » Fri Mar 17, 2006 5:34 am

TB13 wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:I still would be hesitant to take him @ #4 w/ Ortiz, DLee, Wright, Young all on the board, as those guys seem more likely to hit > .300 w/ maybe 30 HR (except Young).

Come on here. This is hitting absurd levels. Want to argue Ortiz, that is one thing. Want to argue DLee instead of Tex? Ok. That is your right. But let's point out a few facts. That was BY FAR Lee's best year every. His homers spiked by 14 and his OPS was .193 higher than it ever was in his career. He is older than Tex. His BA was .053 higher than it has ever been in his career. What are the chances of those stats repeating? You talk about a ball park helping Tex? You do not think that Wrigley helped Lee? What about the fact that on the road, Tex had 56 RBI's to Lee's 55? And somehow Lee is a safer pick than Tex?
David Wright? Unless you somehow place that much more importance on his playing 3b & his some 15-odd steals, I have no idea of how they compare. Wright hit 27 homer, 102 rbi's, 99 runs, .306 ba & .911 OPS. Does that really belong in the same converstaion as Tex's .301 BA, 43 homers, 143 rbi's, 112 runs & .954 OPS? The disparity of the pure #'s is rather startling. Surely 3b is as "scarce" as 1b? And the wide gap in numbers more than covers that 15-18 steals that Wright will get. But Wright is somehow a safer pick?
Michael Young? The sole way you can even begin to make this argument is if you put that much stock into position scarcity, as opposed to pure #'s. To even begin talking about Young as a top-12 player, one would need to suppose that he will once again bat .330+. What are the chances of that? He scored a whole 2 more runs than Tex. The rest? 24 homers & 91 RBI's, with a .898 OPS. The BA is about .02 higher than he has ever put up and the OPS is about .06+ higher than he has ever put up. How does he even belong in the same breath as Tex?


i agree with you. ortiz is better than teix, but dlee and young? jeez ....
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Postby Laean » Fri Mar 17, 2006 5:40 am

TurdFerguson wrote:
TB13 wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:I still would be hesitant to take him @ #4 w/ Ortiz, DLee, Wright, Young all on the board, as those guys seem more likely to hit > .300 w/ maybe 30 HR (except Young).

Come on here. This is hitting absurd levels. Want to argue Ortiz, that is one thing. Want to argue DLee instead of Tex? Ok. That is your right. But let's point out a few facts. That was BY FAR Lee's best year every. His homers spiked by 14 and his OPS was .193 higher than it ever was in his career. He is older than Tex. His BA was .053 higher than it has ever been in his career. What are the chances of those stats repeating? You talk about a ball park helping Tex? You do not think that Wrigley helped Lee? What about the fact that on the road, Tex had 56 RBI's to Lee's 55? And somehow Lee is a safer pick than Tex?
David Wright? Unless you somehow place that much more importance on his playing 3b & his some 15-odd steals, I have no idea of how they compare. Wright hit 27 homer, 102 rbi's, 99 runs, .306 ba & .911 OPS. Does that really belong in the same converstaion as Tex's .301 BA, 43 homers, 143 rbi's, 112 runs & .954 OPS? The disparity of the pure #'s is rather startling. Surely 3b is as "scarce" as 1b? And the wide gap in numbers more than covers that 15-18 steals that Wright will get. But Wright is somehow a safer pick?
Michael Young? The sole way you can even begin to make this argument is if you put that much stock into position scarcity, as opposed to pure #'s. To even begin talking about Young as a top-12 player, one would need to suppose that he will once again bat .330+. What are the chances of that? He scored a whole 2 more runs than Tex. The rest? 24 homers & 91 RBI's, with a .898 OPS. The BA is about .02 higher than he has ever put up and the OPS is about .06+ higher than he has ever put up. How does he even belong in the same breath as Tex?
I know its rediculous if people wont to pass him up they will be regreting it by the mid way point.I fing this thread funny also because of the stadium input also thats like saying Manny and Ortiz are just that good because of Fenway


fantasy wise, ortiz and manny will still produce 1st rounder #s for you when they have a whole week away from fenway. they both hit 1.000+ OPS at home, .900+ OPS away. not that much of a difference. in fact, last season, except for the %s (avg, slugging, obp, ops), both ortiz and manny had overall better #s away than at home. teix, on the other hand, changes A LOT in #s depending on whether he's playing at home or away, and definitely not for the better.

i think manny and ortiz are just better hitters than teix (at the moment). some people are mentioning teix's age, and i agree, he can improve. but fantasy-wise, i won't be using my #3-5 pick on him or anything for THIS year.
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Postby Laean » Fri Mar 17, 2006 6:30 am

TurdFerguson wrote:
MotorCityKitties wrote:
Wharton93 wrote:
MotorCityKitties wrote:I think this is a very valid topic to discuss.


Actually, the "topic" was the Rotoworld article that somebody posted (and then quickly distanced himself from) that said, to paraphrase, "Teix is 0-12 in the WBC, he sucks away from Arlington and they should have picked Hafner if they wanted to better utilize the roster spot."

That article is a piece of crap for many reasons.

--0-12 doesn't matter...too small a sample size and many players are struggling at the plate

--he doesn't suck away from Arlington (he's just not hitting 30 HR on the road like he does at home). But he's far from suck. Adjust his road stats for the pitchers parks that fill the AL West and give him 'league average' teammates, and his numbers would inflate nicely. (league average meaning...many of his teammates on Texas do suck on the road (I think Texas is 10th in road AVG and 11th in OBP?)..so give him league average players)

--Hafner is a terrible choice for 'better utilization' of a roster spot...the guy is BJ Upton in the field and limited to DH. Teix won a gold glove last year. Pick somebody else perhaps, but Hafner can't be the poster boy for better utilization if he can't even be put in the field. That's just silly.

Other than that, the Rotoworld comments are absolutely insightful...


Sorry for the confusion, but by "valid topic" I was referring to Tex's road splits. I agree that the 0-12 is too small a sample size. Never in my post did I mention anything about the WBC.

On another note, Teixeira does play in the AL West. It doesn't matter what you do to inflate his numbers, he will still play in SEA, OAK and LAA. Until this changes I would not draft him in the first half of the first round, especially in a H2H league. Your inflated numbers theory may back up the idea of him being a better road hitter, but it won't change the numbers that count for your fantasy team.
yeah I dont wont someone who puts up .300avg 44hr 143rbi 112R 40dbls.His upside isnt very high either


like i said, in roto he's fine. 112 44 143 .300 is what it is at the end of the year no matter how you look at it. but in h2h, you don't want him disappearing on you for 2 weeks in the playoffs. i'd still take him over derrek lee and michael young, but not over manny or ortiz.

and don't take it so personally. well-thought-out argument will do more than sarcastic comments.
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Postby Wharton93 » Fri Mar 17, 2006 8:52 am

AcidRock23 wrote: I'd say it was one of the shakier .300 performances out there. Not that it REALLY matters but in July when you click on your team's 'season stats' and your 1st rd pick (not that Teix was picked there last year...) is hitting .270 or even .280, you have to wonder. I know where he ended up but did you click on the game log to see how his BA played out all year? He was on my team and I'm INTIMATELY familiar w/ it!! Although I will grant him some 'upside' for whatever that's worth... :-? :-D


How intimate are people with this ".270-.280" hitter?

At the end of May he was hitting .293.
At the end of June he was hitting .291.
On July 10 he was hitting .290 and then slumped for a couple weeks post AS break.
At end of August he was hitting .287.
At end of September he was hitting .298.
He finished at .301.

His HR by month 6-7-9-6-6-9.

Ironically, his xERA last year was .316 so if anything he was unlucky/robbed.
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Postby Laean » Fri Mar 17, 2006 9:20 am

Wharton93 wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote: I'd say it was one of the shakier .300 performances out there. Not that it REALLY matters but in July when you click on your team's 'season stats' and your 1st rd pick (not that Teix was picked there last year...) is hitting .270 or even .280, you have to wonder. I know where he ended up but did you click on the game log to see how his BA played out all year? He was on my team and I'm INTIMATELY familiar w/ it!! Although I will grant him some 'upside' for whatever that's worth... :-? :-D


How intimate are people with this ".270-.280" hitter?

At the end of May he was hitting .293.
At the end of June he was hitting .291.
On July 10 he was hitting .290 and then slumped for a couple weeks post AS break.
At end of August he was hitting .287.
At end of September he was hitting .298.
He finished at .301.

His HR by month 6-7-9-6-6-9.

Ironically, his xERA last year was .316 so if anything he was unlucky/robbed.


i think you're missing the point. no one is saying his overall #s will be bad, or even when broken down month by month he'll be bad. as bad as he is in the away games, he's extremely good at home, so unless there's a month of just away games or something, his #s are going to be good overall each month.

however, in h2h i don't want my 1st rounder turning into a 4rh rounder on me half the time, even if he's a better fantasy hitter than pujols the other half of the time.
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