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Rotoworld on Teixeira

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Postby TB13 » Thu Mar 16, 2006 10:28 am

AcidRock23 wrote:I still would be hesitant to take him @ #4 w/ Ortiz, DLee, Wright, Young all on the board, as those guys seem more likely to hit > .300 w/ maybe 30 HR (except Young).

Come on here. This is hitting absurd levels. Want to argue Ortiz, that is one thing. Want to argue DLee instead of Tex? Ok. That is your right. But let's point out a few facts. That was BY FAR Lee's best year every. His homers spiked by 14 and his OPS was .193 higher than it ever was in his career. He is older than Tex. His BA was .053 higher than it has ever been in his career. What are the chances of those stats repeating? You talk about a ball park helping Tex? You do not think that Wrigley helped Lee? What about the fact that on the road, Tex had 56 RBI's to Lee's 55? And somehow Lee is a safer pick than Tex?
David Wright? Unless you somehow place that much more importance on his playing 3b & his some 15-odd steals, I have no idea of how they compare. Wright hit 27 homer, 102 rbi's, 99 runs, .306 ba & .911 OPS. Does that really belong in the same converstaion as Tex's .301 BA, 43 homers, 143 rbi's, 112 runs & .954 OPS? The disparity of the pure #'s is rather startling. Surely 3b is as "scarce" as 1b? And the wide gap in numbers more than covers that 15-18 steals that Wright will get. But Wright is somehow a safer pick?
Michael Young? The sole way you can even begin to make this argument is if you put that much stock into position scarcity, as opposed to pure #'s. To even begin talking about Young as a top-12 player, one would need to suppose that he will once again bat .330+. What are the chances of that? He scored a whole 2 more runs than Tex. The rest? 24 homers & 91 RBI's, with a .898 OPS. The BA is about .02 higher than he has ever put up and the OPS is about .06+ higher than he has ever put up. How does he even belong in the same breath as Tex?
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Postby TurdFerguson » Thu Mar 16, 2006 11:37 am

TB13 wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:I still would be hesitant to take him @ #4 w/ Ortiz, DLee, Wright, Young all on the board, as those guys seem more likely to hit > .300 w/ maybe 30 HR (except Young).

Come on here. This is hitting absurd levels. Want to argue Ortiz, that is one thing. Want to argue DLee instead of Tex? Ok. That is your right. But let's point out a few facts. That was BY FAR Lee's best year every. His homers spiked by 14 and his OPS was .193 higher than it ever was in his career. He is older than Tex. His BA was .053 higher than it has ever been in his career. What are the chances of those stats repeating? You talk about a ball park helping Tex? You do not think that Wrigley helped Lee? What about the fact that on the road, Tex had 56 RBI's to Lee's 55? And somehow Lee is a safer pick than Tex?
David Wright? Unless you somehow place that much more importance on his playing 3b & his some 15-odd steals, I have no idea of how they compare. Wright hit 27 homer, 102 rbi's, 99 runs, .306 ba & .911 OPS. Does that really belong in the same converstaion as Tex's .301 BA, 43 homers, 143 rbi's, 112 runs & .954 OPS? The disparity of the pure #'s is rather startling. Surely 3b is as "scarce" as 1b? And the wide gap in numbers more than covers that 15-18 steals that Wright will get. But Wright is somehow a safer pick?
Michael Young? The sole way you can even begin to make this argument is if you put that much stock into position scarcity, as opposed to pure #'s. To even begin talking about Young as a top-12 player, one would need to suppose that he will once again bat .330+. What are the chances of that? He scored a whole 2 more runs than Tex. The rest? 24 homers & 91 RBI's, with a .898 OPS. The BA is about .02 higher than he has ever put up and the OPS is about .06+ higher than he has ever put up. How does he even belong in the same breath as Tex?
I know its rediculous if people wont to pass him up they will be regreting it by the mid way point.I fing this thread funny also because of the stadium input also thats like saying Manny and Ortiz are just that good because of Fenway
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Postby AcidRock23 » Thu Mar 16, 2006 11:45 am

my main interest is in having BOTH of those slightly weaker guys as opposed to one Teix and one of the other guys, farther down. And then filling in 1B w/ a big bat that Ks a lot and will probably get less RBI and R but will, nonetheless, jack 40 taters. Basically ending up w/ a slightly higher level of 'team' production at the cost of not having Teix. .303 was great but the game log shows his BA progressively being well < .300 for most of the year. The bottom of the second round isn't as tasty and 3B also seems to have a substantial dropoff after the first few rounds. We'll see how it plays out but I'm not as bullish on Teix after last year...
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Postby TurdFerguson » Thu Mar 16, 2006 1:20 pm

AcidRock23 wrote:my main interest is in having BOTH of those slightly weaker guys as opposed to one Teix and one of the other guys, farther down. And then filling in 1B w/ a big bat that Ks a lot and will probably get less RBI and R but will, nonetheless, jack 40 taters. Basically ending up w/ a slightly higher level of 'team' production at the cost of not having Teix. .303 was great but the game log shows his BA progressively being well < .300 for most of the year. The bottom of the second round isn't as tasty and 3B also seems to have a substantial dropoff after the first few rounds. We'll see how it plays out but I'm not as bullish on Teix after last year...
It does not matter you dont think he can improve on his avg?He is only 25 years old and has tons of upside.
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Postby MotorCityKitties » Thu Mar 16, 2006 1:40 pm

I think this is a very valid topic to discuss. If people are going to spend a #3 or 4 pick on the guy, this is something that has to be analyzed. He is a great young talent, but until he starts producing on the road this issue will be a concern of mine. I think he absolutely has to be dropped down one's rankings in a H2H league. In roto his numbers will be there.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Thu Mar 16, 2006 1:47 pm

TurdFerguson wrote: It does not matter you dont think he can improve on his avg?He is only 25 years old and has tons of upside.


I think that there is some upside but Baseball Forecaster had a blurb that guys w/ lots of AB (1000+) have 'used up' their upside, as it were as well. Big Teix has 1718 AB for his career so far... :-?
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Postby TB13 » Thu Mar 16, 2006 2:16 pm

MotorCityKitties wrote:I think this is a very valid topic to discuss. If people are going to spend a #3 or 4 pick on the guy, this is something that has to be analyzed. He is a great young talent, but until he starts producing on the road this issue will be a concern of mine. I think he absolutely has to be dropped down one's rankings in a H2H league. In roto his numbers will be there.

I just do not understand. Lee is a first round pick, but Tex is not? How so? How are Young or Wright better options?
He had one more road RBI than Lee and Lee never produced numbers like this. Extrapolating Tex's road #'s, he still gets 110+ rbi's & 25+ homers.
He is only going to improve.
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Postby TB13 » Thu Mar 16, 2006 2:17 pm

AcidRock23 wrote:I think that there is some upside but Baseball Forecaster had a blurb that guys w/ lots of AB (1000+) have 'used up' their upside, as it were as well. Big Teix has 1718 AB for his career so far... :-?

A 25 year old that has used up all of his upside? No offense, but that is simply absurd.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Mar 16, 2006 2:19 pm

AcidRock23 wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote: It does not matter you dont think he can improve on his avg?He is only 25 years old and has tons of upside.


I think that there is some upside but Baseball Forecaster had a blurb that guys w/ lots of AB (1000+) have 'used up' their upside, as it were as well. Big Teix has 1718 AB for his career so far... :-?
B. Roberts, D. Lee, and Andruw Jones all had over 1000+ career AB before last year and they had some upside left.
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Postby Wharton93 » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:48 pm

MotorCityKitties wrote:I think this is a very valid topic to discuss.


Actually, the "topic" was the Rotoworld article that somebody posted (and then quickly distanced himself from) that said, to paraphrase, "Teix is 0-12 in the WBC, he sucks away from Arlington and they should have picked Hafner if they wanted to better utilize the roster spot."

That article is a piece of crap for many reasons.

--0-12 doesn't matter...too small a sample size and many players are struggling at the plate

--he doesn't suck away from Arlington (he's just not hitting 30 HR on the road like he does at home). But he's far from suck. Adjust his road stats for the pitchers parks that fill the AL West and give him 'league average' teammates, and his numbers would inflate nicely. (league average meaning...many of his teammates on Texas do suck on the road (I think Texas is 10th in road AVG and 11th in OBP?)..so give him league average players)

--Hafner is a terrible choice for 'better utilization' of a roster spot...the guy is BJ Upton in the field and limited to DH. Teix won a gold glove last year. Pick somebody else perhaps, but Hafner can't be the poster boy for better utilization if he can't even be put in the field. That's just silly.

Other than that, the Rotoworld comments are absolutely insightful...
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