This hype reminds me so much of Justin Morneau last year ...
Step 1) Highly touted youngster hits nearly 20 homers in about half a season.
Step 2) People incorrectly extrapolate those numbers over a full season, see 40 homers, start salivating.
Step 3) People draft said rookie as their starting first basemen.
Step 4) See Morneau's numbers last year. Yes, he got conked on the head, but still ...
I'm by no means saying this will happen, but I don't think Howard should be drafted ahead of some more "sure thing" first basemen.
In my keeper league, we don't have a utility slot and as many as 10 first basemen will be protected, allowing me to sit back and wait to grab either Dunn, Howard or Thome as late as I want. I don't really have a huge preference who I get.
Coincidentally, I actually think Morneau is a better value pick than Howard this year. If the hype gets too big, I say stay away.
"All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others."
— Douglas Adams (1952-2001)