19% chance of a breakout rate according to Baseball Prospectus.
Trouble with BC is that he's a pretty extreme flyball pitcher which isn't a recipe for success in Cincy.
24 homers given up last year isn't awful, and I would expect some improvement from him this year.
I'll say 10-12wins, ERA 4.36, WHIP 1.38 about 125k's.
Forget the man crush. I drop what I'm doing to watch Zack Greinke pitch.