Return to Baseball Leftovers

Sell me the idea of taking SPs early.

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby LongBallMan23 » Thu Feb 23, 2006 1:17 am

I do if i have the last pick in the round. In a 16 team league i had the 16th pick and got Michael Young and Roy Oswalt. My staff now is Oswalt, Duke, Contreras, Sosa and Chen.. 3 proven starters and 2 that are on the rise.

At 1B i got Konerko and in the OF Dye and Matsui. Some cases it can work out and in others in just cant
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 602
(Past Year: -5)
Joined: 25 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby J_Cuz » Thu Feb 23, 2006 1:27 am

coachbob wrote:Injuries is a huge part of the reason to leave pitchers alone for the first couple of rounds. Always check the injury record of any player before you pick him up but also take note of the length of time that a pitcher will stay on the DL compared to a position player. Last year I had Gagne and you couldn't give me that bum in the final round ever again.

Coach Bob, Step back and re-evaluate. I'm not saying first round but you need to place an adequate value on Gagne and be prepared to take a calculated risk on him because the reward could be too great to miss out on at a good price just because he got hurt on you last season.

A healthy gagne in the 5-7th round is different than an injured gagne in the 1-2nd. Remember, 2006 is not 2005. Mistakes happen, bad luck happens, but when you dismiss players for past injuries you compound the mistake and make it worse.

Always draft value and you'll do well. ;-D
College Coach
College Coach

Posts: 139
(Past Year: -1)
Joined: 21 May 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby BronXBombers51 » Thu Feb 23, 2006 1:32 am

I haven't read through this thread yet, but it seems to me that hitters are just much more consistent than pitchers. Look at the consensus top 15 starting pitchers from last year...

(Based on Cafe Rankings....)
1. Randy Johnson
2. Johan Santana
3. Mark Prior
4. Jason Schmidt
5. Pedro Martinez
6. Curt Schilling
7. Roy Oswalt
8. Tim Hudson
9. Ben Sheets
10. Kerry Wood
11. Oliver Perez
12. Mark Mulder
13. Jake Peavy
14. Roy Halladay
15. Mike Mussina

Most of these guys probably went within the top 5 rounds. How many of them actually wound up deserving that? Santana, Pedro, Oswalt, Peavy, Halladay and maybe Sheets. That's 5 or 6 people out of 15.

My guess is that it was very similar the year before as well. I can go look it up if you want. Year after year, unknown players emerge to dominate. John Patterson, Brett Myers, Zach Duke, Danny Haren, Doug Davis are just a few of the numerous players who broke out last year. In 2004, Peavy, Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, Carlos Zambrano and let us not forget SANTANA all had tremendous seasons. None of these guys were rated in the top 25 the year before. They all had near top 10 seasons though.

That's why I find it useful to stack up on consistent hitters throughout the first 5-7 rounds, and then grab some under the radar pitchers who may have great seasons. Worked out for me great in 2004 when I loaded on offense and grabbed C-Zam in the 12th round and Johan in the 15th. A few key waiver acquisitions and you have a dominant staff without wasting a top 5 round pick.
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 11622
(Past Year: -297)
Joined: 8 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby glcmustliveon » Thu Feb 23, 2006 2:27 am

Are we talking Roto, or Fantasy Points? I think in a points league it depends on the scoring system, in my H2H points league its pretty balanced, but I still usually only get one SP the first five rounds...

"I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul." --Ichiro Suzuki on Dice-K
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 580
(Past Year: -11)
Joined: 3 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Angels Stadium, Section 132

Postby modestninja » Thu Feb 23, 2006 2:53 am

Although it's been said a few times, your argument about pitchers only pitching every fifth day has absolutely no merit. As has been said before they might actually have more value because they contribute a significantly higher proportion of the stats than a position player (1/5 to 1/9), meaning they have a bigger impact making it more important to get good ones. Another argument is that they don't contribute at all in one category (saves), but again there are very few position player that contribute in all the categories and sluggers like Ortiz don't contribute in steals, but are still very valuable.

That being said, there are only one or two pitchers that I would draft early, because in general they are overvalued by a lot of people but more importantly they are less consistent in terms of production than hitters. The ones worth drafting imho are guys like randy johnson (in his prime) and santana who absolutely dominate 4 categories, have remained consistent for a significant period of time and have been well handled (less risk of injury). I am amazed when guys who don't k a lot (Hudson, etc...) get drafted early. They are only good in 3 categories and average in ks, it's like drafting a Sean Casey type player early (good in avg, runs, rbi, mediocre in hr). Sure he's nice to have around, but not if you draft him in the early rounds.
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

Posts: 50
Joined: 21 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Thu Feb 23, 2006 2:54 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:Year after year, unknown players emerge to dominate. John Patterson, Brett Myers, Zach Duke, Danny Haren, Doug Davis are just a few of the numerous players who broke out last year.

Well that's the trick, isn't it? Unfortunately, it's hard to know before the season starts which pitchers will be the ones to break out. Even if we can count on the fact that half the top-15 starters in '06 will have been mediocre in '05, that doesn't mean that we can assume that the mediocre pitchers we choose to draft will be the ones to become top-15 pitchers.

Going by Yahoo rankings, the top 15 pitchers last year were:


Of those pitchers, 7 (Carp, Willis, Pettitte, Colon, Smoltz, Myers, Buehrle) could have been had in the later rounds. If you wanted an ace, your best bet was going with someone in the early rounds.

Of course, there's nothing to say that you need an "ace." If you feel confident enough in your knowledge of pitchers that you think you can fill out your rotation with sold guys with high floors and breakout potential, then you're in good shape.
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1000
(Past Year: -4)
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Thu Feb 23, 2006 3:22 am

I think the answer to the question of whether to draft starting pitchers early can also vary from year to year depending on the types of players available. Would you rather have Chase Utley in the 2nd and Rich Harden in the 4th, or would you prefer Peavy or Sheets in the 2nd and Carlos Lee in the 4th?

In other words, is there a bigger difference between the pitcher you're getting in the 2nd round and the one you'd be getting in the 4th or 5th than there is between the 2nd-round hitter and the 4th or 5th round hitter? I guess this is really another way of saying what some people have been saying throughout this thread - it may be best to just draft for value.
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1000
(Past Year: -4)
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Esen » Thu Feb 23, 2006 7:19 am

Drafting pitchers early has a lot of upside if you know what you are doing.

It really seperates a great fantasy manager from a good one.

Lets say you draft your regular way and you have the stud hitters and all and the ok pitching staff , it would be great to have that one or two over the top pitchers but you chose to make your hitters solid.

You need to to look at your top 6 picks and say to yourself
Are any of these guys stats replaceable?
I say Yes: If you have great insight you will see that you can probably replace at least one of the name brand hitters with another not as flashy hitter in mid rounds and not take a hit in production.

Anyone can draft Txeira in the first round but who could draft Melvin Mora 2 years ago in the 3rd or 4th round? noone
so if instead of lets saying using your 3rd round pick 2 years ago on rolen you could have used it on an ace and picked up Mora in the 14th round.

Now the argument is going to come well how the heck would have I known Mora was going to do so good that year.

A great manager may have known.
Mora was always a solid player, but never had consistant at bats. everyone knew at draft time that year that he was going to be a starting 3rd basemen, A lot of people even had him marked as a solid sleeper.

What happened?
WEll instead of taking rolen in the 3rd you could have bulked up 5 or 6 cats (anyway you cut it pitchers have their own stat cats and you can ndominate some of them) with a stud pitcher in the 3rd and still had great 3b production in th e later rounds.

Its not all guess work.

It is having conviction enough to look at the paper look at the reports, see who is getting fit, doing ALL of the research and picking guys who are not name brand but are great replacements to the name brands.

Whats the difference between a 30/30/100 guy in the 2nd round and a 30/30/100 guy in the 12th?
a 18 203 2,40 sp

ANyhow this is my opinion.

I beleive there are great managers out thre that can peg the points above.

It is not easy and that is why everyone is in the comfort of name brand hitting 1-=5
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

Posts: 374
(Past Year: 6)
Joined: 15 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Sell me the idea of taking SPs early.

Postby swyck » Thu Feb 23, 2006 9:12 am

Zito is God wrote:I never understood why people spend 2.3, 3rd, or even 1st round picks on starting pitchers. It seems logical that hitters play eevryday, pitchers every 5 days so thus hitters are much more valuable.

Many have questioned it, but I know there are others who still take SPs early and often. I have never drafted a starter before the fifth round. My mock a couple of days back had the choice of Dunn or Halladay, while I gave Halladay a very long look my 5-day-to-1-day strategy still convinced me to take Dunn (Third Round).

Please enlighten/convince me as to why the strategy of taking pitchers early is backed by some FBB players. I would love to debate it, thanks.

Your logic is flawed.

Even though hitters play ever day and pitchers every 5, the value of the cats they represent are the same. The extra days of play from a hitter does not add value. So from a scoring point of view, they have equal value.

The reason not to take pitchers early is that pitching performance varies more from year to year, while top hitters tend to remain top hitters. Taking hitters early is more likely to pay off.
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 1522
(Past Year: 12)
Joined: 7 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 23, 2006 9:22 am

The top 30-40 pitchers are highly volatile every year, the top 30-40 hitters are relatively stable every year. This is why i always take hitting for at least the first 3 rounds. The drop from first tier to second tier pitching is much smaller than the drop from first tier to second tier hitting as well.
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7705
(Past Year: -28)
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 19 guests