nuggets wrote:Who are you talking to?
I am recognizing the risk in being confident in Hermida being a quality hitter this year and risk in believing Cabrera will do as well or better than last season. My money is on a similar value from Cabrera this year as last, however I'm finding some risks in that.
Castillo comparable to Hemida? No, Hermida is not the contact hitter Castillo is, Castillo doesn't take as many walks, Hermida has more power, Castillo is likely to have a higher OBP ect..
My post was directed at you. I'm sorry I didn't make that more clear.
You say that Hermida isn't the contact hitter that Castillo is. The fact is, that doesn't matter. What does matter is that Hermida is extremely adept at getting on-base. In other words, he doesn't make outs. It doesn't matter if a player gets to first with a single or a walk. The bottom line is this: with Hermida hitting in front of him, Cabrera should have a very similar number of RBI opportunities as he did in 2006. Any kind of production we see out of Hermida beyond the OBP is icing on the cake.
The truth is Castillo is mostly a singles hitter who only stole 10 bases last season. He's got an above average OBP, but nothing special. It's not like the Marlins are trying to replace Barry Bonds in the lineup. Castillo is decent at best.
In Hermida, you're talking about a guy who posted a .457 OBP and led the league in walks with 111 in AA Carolina last year at 21 years old. In 4 years in the minors, he has posted a .399 OBP. While the power numbers he showed in the majors might be a fluke, the OBP is going to be there. That's all we're concerned with right now in discussing Miguel Cabrera's value for 2006. I feel like I'm beating a dead horse with Hermida. I am confident that he can post a number very close to Castillo's .391 OBP mark in 2006. Look at his minor league numbers and his age, and you'll see why most people are projecting a .400+ OBP in 2006 for this kid. He's got talent.
But, I don't want to get off topic. This discussion is about Cabrera, and how he will fare in 2006.
nuggets wrote:Most (all?) of the hitters who have succeeded in poor parks with poor hitters surrounding them (Bay, 91 games in AAA) have had more time to develop under better conditions or are extremely talented like Pujols and Guererro.
Cabrera deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Pujols and Guerrero in terms of pure talent when it comes to hitting a baseball. I'm still not sure why you're talking about minor league numbers. They have no relevance to this discussion. Cabrera has shown that he can hit major league pitching, and it has nothing to do with lineup protection. He IS
extremely talented like Pujols and Guerrero.
What point are you trying to make? There are risks with any player in fantasy baseball. Look at Beltran, Guerrero, Tejada last season. Is Cabrera a risk? Sure, but so is Jason Bay, David Wright and any other player you'd draft around Cabrera. There is overwhelming evidence to support my case that Cabrera will have a similar (or better) value than he did in 2005. I see no reasons to temper my expectations.
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]