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David Luciani on Baseballnotebook.com wrote:Bay had a contact rate of about 76% last year - that is, about 76% of his at bats ended with him putting the ball in play. . . Bay's contact rate in 2004 was just 69% and in the minors in 2003 and 2002, his translated contact rate was 71% and 72% respectively. I'm projecting a 2006 contact rate more in line with what he did from 2002-2004 and that's at the heart of the drop in projected batting average.
David Luciani on Baseballnotebook.com wrote:If you look, you'll see he was successful in 21 out of 22 stolen base attempts. Even if he were to run at the same rate as he did in 2005, and that's unlikely as stolen base attempts typically decline as a player ages (even one who is only twenty-seven), it's almost impossible to sustain that sort of stolen base success rate over the long-term. Ironically, I think Bay has the speed to run much more but won't. That is, he's the sort of player who, if given the green light, could steal even more bases. However, if I'm right that he's not about to get a constant green light, let's pretend for a moment that he ends up with even the same number of stolen base attempts in 2006 as he did in 2005 (22). A great base-stealer would be successful in about 75-80% of those and that would drop his total to around 16-18 steals rather than the 21 he had.
Zito is God wrote:I had the 12th pick in my public league. I took Bay and Wright. Good choice?
I read up on Bay and it seems he is a definite number 1 pick, especially since he provides ALL 5 categories, also his constant improvement over the last 3 years. Any good discussion for or against this view?
For that matter, did I do the right thing with Wright?
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