Draft Philosophy Question

[JakeTrain72]

As a general rule I try to take safe picks in the first 3 rounds and look for value. Then I try to mix in ONE risky pick in the 4-9 rounds then play it safe getting depth. Depending on how many bench slots you have, I fire away at boom or bust guys late in the draft.

When it comes right down to it, I do want some risk, but keep it as low as possible.

[moochman]

I will take chances on guys if I have a rock to back him up. Using your example, if you already have a stable 1B and want to catch lightening in a bottle take Morneau. If not take Shelton as he will be more likely to provide decent numbers week in week out.

I would actually take Shelton anyway. He is a pretty darn good hitter who could end up with .290/27/90 type numbers. Real nice value for where you can get him.

[Ender]

For early picks I go with sure things every time. With marginal players like in your example above I'll almost always take the higher upside guy.

[WittyC]

I think this really depends on your league. If you're in a highly competitive league, I think you have to take a few risks on players to win the league. If you're in a league where you have a pretty obvious advantage over the other owners, it might be better to go for conservative players, since you know you'll out-draft the competition anyways.

I hope that made as much sense here as it did in my head.

[Kelly Gruber]

RISK

It doesn't matter if you finish third or last, either way if it is not first or second, then you've lost.

Every draft I pick the guys that other owners leave because of the risk. Two years ago, it paid off when I drafted Vlady in the second round and the Big Unit in the third (both were coming back from injury that year), and last year it burned me when I drafted Bonds in the second round and Nomar in the third. In the first case, I won the pool, in the second case, I came in last. I have no regrets.

Having said that, as I do agree with the above post, only take as much risk as is necessary, but in a competitive league, you are not going to win by playing it safe.