GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And, it's in that last 1/9th that I think the calculation is less than obviously a benefit for Drew. You are only in a better spot if you make a waiver wire pickup and use it in a way that benefits your team. It's possible that this will not be the case. You could ignore the waiver guy and be no worse off than with Green, but once you include him, you have to recognize that you can make mistakes and lead to a worse outcome.
Really, is this a serious response? With Green your options in the "1/9th" situation are:
(1) lefty bench bat #1 vs. lefty, (2) lefty bench bat #2 vs. lefty, or (3) Shawn Green vs. lefty (w/ ~.700 OPS) (i.e. all about equally bad)
With Drew your options are:
(1) lefty bench bat #1 vs. lefty, (2) lefty bench bat #2 vs. lefty, or (3) waiver-wire pickup (w/ ~.750-.800 OPS by your previous suggestion)
If you're arguing that maybe the Drew situation isn't as good because maybe that waiver-wire pickup won't meet reasonable expectations (and we might be tricked into using him rather than the two awful options at hand), I'd like to know explicitly because I'd like to stop bothering to articulate any more responses if this is what I'm dealing with.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:This variation in outcomes, rather than the mean outcome, is the main reason to not choose Drew. While the mean prediction is that you'll have Drew for 2/3rds, you could have him anywhere from less than 50% of the time to more than 75% of the time. Furthermore, the waiver guy adds further potential variation into the mean outcome, which is less present when you choose the Green option.
It's the VARIANCE in performance, not the mean performance that's the relevant issue here. If you have two choices with the same or similar mean outcomes, but one involves significantly higher risk, the less risky choice might be best, even if its mean performance is a little lower.
Why are you backpeddling here? You seemed confident is your previous statements about Drew vs. Green without needing to fall back on this; why not now? (And the mean outcomes are NOT THE SAME! They weren't the same when you assumed it was Drew or a waiver-wire pickup, and they're certainly not the same now). I've seen you mention on this board that you're a professor; out of morbid curiosity, in what field?
(BTW, I do appreciate the holds projections you've put up on the board.