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Combined projections

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 14, 2006 11:23 pm

One thing I think you need to be careful about with this, is whether the draft you are using for an ADP is a keeper or not. Using non-keeper draft ADPs as a guide for a keeper draft, or vice versa, can be very misleading.
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Postby Steve-o » Wed Feb 15, 2006 12:57 am

Thursday wrote:I combine projections and average draft positions from 5 or 6 different sources, and i've kept track of all on an excel file. I've targeted only certain positions and dudes thanks to the fact that i'm in a keeper league. I throw out certain results.

For instance:

Jeremy Bonderman this year has draft positions of:
175, 197, 182, 179, and 96: This gives him an ADP of 165.8. But i threw out the 96, since it's obviously a huge outlier. This now changes his ADP to 183. Pretty big difference.

I use the median of the picks to determine the ADP. This gives me a little better figure. In addition, Rynman indicated I might want to look at the stadard deviation for the picks to help determine a consensus. That way I can highlight certain guys with uncertainty and know they may go sooner than I would normally expect. Plus it is very easy to do [=STDEV(A1:D1)].

All in all, with those factors you should be able to identify the real bargains or terrible picks of your league.
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