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Keeper Strategy for Auction leagues

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Keeper Strategy for Auction leagues

Postby ActionHero » Sat Feb 04, 2006 2:25 am

So my league decided to move to an auction format last year and it was a total blast. Since it was also a keeper league, I could use some advice on which players I should target. So as not to make this about my team, I won't list my team, but here is a little information about our league setup.

- keep 4 players
- $260 cap, player's salary increases by $3 each year (max 3 years)

This may be a dumb question, but is the primary objective to keep the players which represent the best bargain relative to what their expected value will be? In other words, if player A's salary is $3 and their expected value this coming season is $13, should I always pick this player over somebody whose salary is $20 and their expected value this coming season is $28? Is it just a math problem?

Also, for those of you who've participated in leagues like this in the past, do owners typically keep the studs like Arod, Pujols, etc... or do they prefer the youngsters like Weeks, King Felix? It's going to be tough getting value from the studs when their salaries are going to be in the mid-40's. On the other hand, I don't want to be locked out of studs either if everybody else keeps theirs.

Any other thoughts or words of wisdom will be greatly appreciated. Thanks and it's good to be back! ;-D
Last edited by ActionHero on Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Nene » Sat Feb 04, 2006 2:53 am

I will talk from experience in basketball.

Draft the superstars first, young studs second.

You need to essentially forget it is a keeper league in some respects, because you always want to go with the sure thing, but draft at least one cornerstone young player (in basketball, mine is usually Dwight Howard or Chris Bosh). People will do the same, keeping mostly the best players, regardless of age, with noteable exceptions*

*See: Felix Hernandez, Chase Utley, and others

If you have a sure thing as a prospect, you look at the player HE WILL BECOME, and don't trade him for anything cheap. I had a manager offer me Camby for Dwight Howard in a keeper league. At the time, Camby was ranked first. But I still rejected. You can't trade away a future perennial all star for an injury plagued vet.

I don't know how much that helps. The best I can say is to draft a good mix of youth and experience, but value experience higher, and don't feel like you are drafting to have the youngest team.
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Postby daweasle » Sat Feb 04, 2006 3:37 am

It depends on who you're talking about in particular man.

Let's say you keep pujols for 38 bucks and he returns gains worth 58 bucks. you made 20 dollars profit.

on the other hand - you keep chris shelton for 5 bucks and he makes gains worth 20 bucks - you quadrupled your money - but you still only made 15 bucks profit.

I'd say the studs have the best chance to make you a huge profit - BUT if you have some can't miss rookie - (and there's no such thing as a can't miss rookie) then there's no reason not to keep him.

sure try to balance it out with a few of each - but remember that if you are playing for next year in february - you shouldn't be playing.

the key is to pick the guys who have the best chance of success - and avoid putting too much stock into the risky players. I had a team a couple years ago where every player on my team was 10-20 dollars - no studs and no scrubs. I came in second - but i really didn't have the star power to make trades to get me over the hump and win it - but I was in the money and thats good enuf for me to show a profit at the end of the season.

On the other hand I have seen guys go balls to the wall right off the bat in the draft - pick up 4 superstars and spend all the money. then pick up nothing but scrubs to fill the roster. (that way doesn't usually work - but it could be successful if you get really lucky on a few picks (IE Lopez Cantu Ensberg etc last year) but what are the odds? slim at best
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