## RotoTimes Dollar Projections are out

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thinkspin wrote:
Surfs up wrote:I just looked at Rototimes dollar projections and I'll tell you there ain't no way ARod goes for \$40.75 in my league this year. You can add at least \$10.00 to his price.Hell they had Podsednik at \$26.00 or \$28.00 He went for \$38.00 last year. Vlad went for \$50.00. I stopped looking about 10 players done. Not worth the time.Its almost laughable.

The higher priced players go for more money than they are worth and the lower priced players go for less than they are worth. That is just the nature of auctions.

Yeah, too often owners confuse the concept of a player's projected value with the idea of what he would go for in the draft.

You can try to create two different types of cheatsheets, one which lets you know what a player is expected to earn so you don't pay too much for what you are going to get in return, or one which gives you an idea of how much it will take to acquire a player in the draft so you can decide if he's the player you want to spend that much for.

I do both. My cheatsheet is a compilation of all the dollar values I can find on the net. It includes dollar values based on last year's actual stats as well as dollar values based on this year's projections. I take these values and average them and then also carry the max value found for each player. This gives me a pretty good idea of the concensus on a players actual value as well as the max I can expect a player to go for in the draft. Then, of course I look at those values and determine if they seem realistic based on what ARod's values are versus what I know he has gone for in past drafts, for example, and usually it shakes out about right.

People who are on this magical search for the be all and end all of dollar value projections are wasting their time. If you don't want to compile numerous dollar values to minimize the inlfluence of any whacky anomolies that might occur in a single set of dollar values, then pick a few test players, i.e. ARod, the top SP in the league, the top closer, the top OF, etc., find a set of dollar values in which these players best correspond to what these types of players have traditionally gone for in your league in the past and run with it.
TopChuckie
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TopChuckie wrote:
thinkspin wrote:
Surfs up wrote:I just looked at Rototimes dollar projections and I'll tell you there ain't no way ARod goes for \$40.75 in my league this year. You can add at least \$10.00 to his price.Hell they had Podsednik at \$26.00 or \$28.00 He went for \$38.00 last year. Vlad went for \$50.00. I stopped looking about 10 players done. Not worth the time.Its almost laughable.

The higher priced players go for more money than they are worth and the lower priced players go for less than they are worth. That is just the nature of auctions.

Yeah, too often owners confuse the concept of a player's projected value with the idea of what he would go for in the draft.

You can try to create two different types of cheatsheets, one which lets you know what a player is expected to earn so you don't pay too much for what you are going to get in return, or one which gives you an idea of how much it will take to acquire a player in the draft so you can decide if he's the player you want to spend that much for.

Keeping a second sheet is a good idea. I was using the Cafe Mock auction results as a guide to what player were going for. Didnt always work out that way, as some players went way higher or lower.

IMO overpaying a few bucks for a \$40 player is probably more useful then getting value for a \$6 player. It does you no good to have money left over at the end because you stuck to your guns on all bids. The values are only estimates anyway.

I dont know about Pods for \$28, much less \$38, but there are a lot of ways to make valuations in auction.
swyck
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Pods for more than \$30 bucks is a ripoff in ANY auction.

Looking at the RotoTimes and the shameless RotoSpin advertised site, I found that they're both full of holes. I guess nothing beats making a list, checking it twice and then finding out whose worth what they are. I just like to have multiple reference points, but projecting dollar values is not easy.

Ah, it's the challenge that keeps me coming back!
Coppermine
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Coppermine wrote:Looking at the RotoTimes and the shameless RotoSpin advertised site, I found that they're both full of holes. I guess nothing beats making a list, checking it twice and then finding out whose worth what they are. I just like to have multiple reference points, but projecting dollar values is not easy.

Ah, it's the challenge that keeps me coming back!

Full of holes? Can you tell me where? I would like to fix any asap.
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thinkspin
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thinkspin wrote:
Coppermine wrote:Looking at the RotoTimes and the shameless RotoSpin advertised site, I found that they're both full of holes. I guess nothing beats making a list, checking it twice and then finding out whose worth what they are. I just like to have multiple reference points, but projecting dollar values is not easy.

Ah, it's the challenge that keeps me coming back!

Full of holes? Can you tell me where? I would like to fix any asap.

Don't worry about it, it's nothing I'd call fixable... the projections from both sites are good, but the holes are caused by the human element being taken out... common sense is simply replaced with equations, and for my money, I trust my common sense more than a value calculator. In any case, they're excellent starting points of reference which I assume is their purpose anyway.
Coppermine
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Coppermine wrote:Don't worry about it, it's nothing I'd call fixable... the projections from both sites are good, but the holes are caused by the human element being taken out... common sense is simply replaced with equations, and for my money, I trust my common sense more than a value calculator. In any case, they're excellent starting points of reference which I assume is their purpose anyway.

The projections from both sides are good. Agreed. I do not do projections so I can not say how good, but my partner who does the projections will be famous one day. Hopefully not Funston famous.

I thought you found something you thought needed fixing so I am trying to be proactive about comments and suggestions.

In valuation, it is all calculation. In projection, it is some calculation some common sense. What confuses most people is that they associate a dollar value derived from a set of projections with what they should bid at auction. That is not the case.

Anyway, even the common sense part of projections can be debated. There was that thread about stats and trends the other day that went on for pages and pages with both sides arguing over semantics. Some on that thread would say that your common sense could be backed up by statistical analysis. I like to consider it common sense too as it makes me feel smarter.
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thinkspin
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