GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I think the big issue for the Braves is the Mazzone effect and the back end of the rotation. ZiPS did include an upward adjustment in all Braves pitcher ERAs due to the loss of Leo. And, I have a hard time believing they'll get anything close to league average ERA out of the back two slots in the rotation. In fact, I would not be surprised at all if both of those slots ended the year with an ERA >5.00brandnew wrote:.500 for the Braves? I'm not even going to comment, that's awful...
They only won 90 games last year. If the loss of Leo and the performance of the backline starters and relievers costs them 60-90 runs, they are a .500 team.
While there area few other things in here that I disagree with, I'd like to discuss "The Mazzone Effect." First off, I've actually seen a few statistical analyses done demonstrating an observable effect on pitchers who come to Atlanta from other places. Just casual observation will give you names like John Burkett and Jaret Wright, who flourished in Atlanta after mediocre to bad years elsewhere.
Of course, none of that be directly tied to Mazzone. While it certainly seems logical that the pitching coach would be the cause of the good numbers, all we really have to go in is that before and after these guys joined the Braves they weren't very good, but while they were here they were spectacular. I mean, it could just be an organizational thing for whatever reason. Perhaps it is really "The Cox Effect" or "The Ted Effect" or whatever.
But additionally, Mazzone just never seemed to have a way with younger pitchers. After Glavine and Smoltz, the Braves really didn't develope ANYONE from within the system who was any good (GL with Bruce Chen there, Baltimore. ), and now, they're awash in young guys. Names like Davies, Sosa, McBride, Devine, and Boyer are already in Atlanta, with guys like James and Lerew to join them soon. With all of this young pitching talent and Mazzone having little track record with younger pitchers, perhaps the Braves won't be hurting so bad after all.
Moreover, it has been apperant in various quotes that Braves players and management weren't that miffed to see Leo go. Apperantly, Leo just rubs some people the wrong way. I'm not saying that his departure is a good thing, but I think it's unreasonable to expect Atlanta's team ERA to clime very much due to the coaching change.
Finally, I'll just add that if it truly was Leo's pitching regime that was getting the most out of his starter, why on earth wouldn't other clubs have picked up on it? I mean, he's been doing it in Atlanta for 15+ years now, and you're telling me no one has tried to copy his proceedure to get the same results? I find that a bit unbelievable.