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J_Cuz wrote:I understand that that may be many people in here's point but that was not the topic of this thread.
I've re-read it and have not at one time seen nor approached this as a keeper-based question.
The question was as it pertains to this coming season and the trends are not supportive that Wright is that much a better play for the coming season and also that Utley can not build upon his 05 season statistically.
But I accept that a younger player has more keeper value due to a liklihood of three year statistical projections. There is no argument against that point, but it is not correct in regards to draft slotting for 2006 exclusively at this point.
J_Cuz wrote:But Utley is 27 and not thirty.
It is not statistically nor logically sound to claim that since a spike is unlikely after thirty it is equally unlikely after 26, and therefore much more likely after 23.
It may be a bit more likely but this guy's logic of an ABSURD 95% v. less than 50% ration has no statistical value.
I hope you understand this.
Niffoc4 wrote:davidmarver wrote:[quoteJ_Cuz... have you ever taken a class on statistical analysis? .
J35J wrote:Wow, is this debate still going? Kinda reminds me of the useless thread with Omar v. Ozzie with, The Cow!
J_Cuz wrote:Your "statistiocal analysis" was done with crayons in the schoolyard.
My historical analysis of trends is the work of an adult , and I think that's whats upsetting the "sabermetric crew" in here who never made a dime at the track, casino, or an on-line sportsbook.
anyway you slice this it c omes down to pure, unadulterated gambling and I find it laughable how out of depth the people who are posting up empty stats vs. tried and true trends are in this area.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:A 23 year old player like David Wright has a 95 percent chance for further improvement during the next several years.
A 27 year old player like Chase Utley has a 50 percent chance for improvement.
A 30 year old has about a 25 percent chance for improvement.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Subsequently, all of us have addressed the next year question, where the emphasis of our argument has been the likely regression of Utley
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