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Marte for Crisp close.....

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:11 pm

Wozzyck wrote:Well said, GotowarMissAgnes. Just to clarify though in my previous post, I wasn't likening Marte to Dunn as players. I was simply pointing out that in dismissing a player because you don't believe he hits for AVG, has good speed, or plays stellar defense, you're also dismissing one of the most valuable players in the game.

Another Blown Save wrote:Is that so? I never found his 15 Es in 109 games or the 3 Es in 17 games to be impressive.


And I'd like to emphasize the naivete of presenting modest error totals of a minor league infielder as any disproof/proof of his defensive ability.


Agreed Wozzyck. I was trying to respond to ABS and The Cow there, because they are seriously underrating Marte and overrating Crisp.
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Postby Another Blown Save » Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:08 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Slugging over .500 as a 21 year old in a AAA league that's all pitching parks is outstanding. That's what Marte did. Playing mostly against guys 2-4 years older, he kicked butt.
Kelly Johnson, who's only 1 year older than Marte, was able to have a higher slug & avg in the same park & team. Now look at his numbers in MLB.

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Strikeouts are no worse than any other out, so what matters is understanding what they mean.
Actually, that's not ture, esp. if you have good power.
Look at how many SF Dunn had over the last 2 years. Now look at how many SF Manny Ramirez had.

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:That's not Marte. He's got a good average, high walks, and moderately high Ks. In fact, last year, he moved up a level increased his BB and reduced his Ks. He's a young kid who shows patience. That's a GOOD thing.

275 in AAA is not an acceptable even if he is 22. Even Chavez was hitting 325 in AAA when he was 21. Since then, he wasn't even got close to hitting 300 in the Majors.

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:.275 translates more like .260 according to BaseballProspectus. Being able to hit .260 against major league pitchers as a 21 year old is very good. That projects to a guy that through his prime years will hit .275 to .290. Marte will hit for an average to above average BA.

Again, I'll refer back to Eric Chavez.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Yeah, errors are a great way to measure defense
;-7

That was the only stat I was able to find, but if you have more stats, I would love to see them
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Dunn slugged that in a hitter's park, while Marte hit his in a pitcher's park, so the comparison is closer than it appears. But, Marte is no Dunn as a slugger. That doesn'tmean he's not a good player, though. But, I am currious. How come Marte's strikeouts matter, but Dunn's don't?

1. I don't think I said that Dunn's SOs don't matter, in fact, it matters very much.
2. Louisville Slugger Field is as big as The Diamond
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:43 pm

Another Blown Save wrote:Kelly Johnson, who's only 1 year older than Marte, was able to have a higher slug & avg in the same park & team. Now look at his numbers in MLB.


SAMPLE SIZE ALERT!

Johnson did that for less than 200 plate appearances. He's had all of 334 major league plate appearances.

Across Johnson's 2,000+ minor league appearances, his slugging percentage was .469. Marte, at younger ages and higher levels, has a minor league slugging percentage of .485 in his 2,000 minor league plate appearances.

Johnson's also closer to 2 years older (20 months).

Johnson's not a relevant comparison.

Another Blown Save wrote:Actually, that's not ture, esp. if you have good power.
Look at how many SF Dunn had over the last 2 years. Now look at how many SF Manny Ramirez had.


And how much are eggs in China these days? How you make outs is about as close to irrelevant as you can get. Last year, Manny had all of 4 more SF than Dunn did. That's a meaningless difference.

Another Blown Save wrote:275 in AAA is not an acceptable even if he is 22. Even Chavez was hitting 325 in AAA when he was 21. Since then, he wasn't even got close to hitting 300 in the Majors.


IN THE FREAKIN' PCL!!
IN LESS THAN 200 FREAKIN' PLATE APPEARANCES!!

FWIW, Chavez, career minor league BA, playing mostly in parks that boosted hitting? .275
Marte, playing mostly in parks that reduce hitting? .274

Another Blown Save wrote:Again, I'll refer back to Eric Chavez.


Again, that comparison is nonsensical, because it fails to accurately consider park or sample size.

Another Blown Save wrote:2. Louisville Slugger Field is as big as The Diamond


Size of a field doesn't tell you how it plays. Louisville's park is rated a hitter's park by the stats.
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Postby Wozzyck » Sun Dec 18, 2005 5:15 pm

Another Blown Save wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Strikeouts are no worse than any other out, so what matters is understanding what they mean.
Actually, that's not ture, esp. if you have good power.
Look at how many SF Dunn had over the last 2 years. Now look at how many SF Manny Ramirez had.


I don't have much to add to Gotowar's comments, but I esp. couldn't let this slide. This is the argument as to why strikeouts are worse? Comparing a single loosely correlated (at best) stat between two individual players, each of whom is generally amongst the top 40 in strikeouts in the league? For fun, I'll counter this dubious argument with one of my own: Manny hit into 20 DPs last year to Adam Dunn's 6 DPs. So there! :*) In a game whose strategy these days is based around getting on base and power, it's very unclear whether SOs are any more negative than any other out, and there are compelling reasons for it's irrelevance.

Oh and so the error's not repeated again, Marte was a 21-year-old last season, NOT 22.
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Postby Another Blown Save » Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:00 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:SAMPLE SIZE ALERT!

Johnson did that for less than 200 plate appearances. He's had all of 334 major league plate appearances.

Across Johnson's 2,000+ minor league appearances, his slugging percentage was .469. Marte, at younger ages and higher levels, has a minor league slugging percentage of .485 in his 2,000 minor league plate appearances.

Johnson's also closer to 2 years older (20 months).

Johnson's not a relevant comparison.

Averaging total minor league plate appearances is even more irrelevant, considering the fact that
1. Players obviously age and improve over years.
2. Some players have more AB in R or A leagues while others might have more AB at AA or AAA.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And how much are eggs in China these days? How you make outs is about as close to irrelevant as you can get. Last year, Manny had all of 4 more SF than Dunn did. That's a meaningless difference.

You got to be kidding me.
If you have power, it helps to able to hit a deep fly ball to move runners. Obviously, SF only counts if you move a runner from 3rd to home, but power hitters with good average are also able to move runners from 2nd to 3rd or even 1st to 2nd if you have a good lead-off man.

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:IN THE FREAKIN' PCL!!
IN LESS THAN 200 FREAKIN' PLATE APPEARANCES!!

FWIW, Chavez, career minor league BA, playing mostly in parks that boosted hitting? .275
Marte, playing mostly in parks that reduce hitting? .274

Again, averaging minor league PA is really pointless, but just for the sake of arguing, Chavez was hitting 275 in minors before he was 21. Marte is still struggling to hit barely hit 275 when he is 22.

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Size of a field doesn't tell you how it plays. Louisville's park is rated a hitter's park by the stats.

And where can I find this stats?
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Postby MikeFromNY » Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:20 pm

The Cow wrote:As a Tribe fan I do not want this deal to go through. Crisp is basically a Damon clone, some powere some speed good average, good def... I mean if this deal were Damon for Mota and Marte well the team dealing Damon is crazy.


I think you're over rating both Crisp and Damon....and under rating Marte.

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Where to start? People need to learn a little bit about considering age--level of play---park when they judge prospects. If a 26 year old slugs .500 in the AAA PCL, it's nothing to get excited about. He's got 2-3 years of experience on most other guys in the league and the league's full of hitter's parks.

Slugging over .500 as a 21 year old in a AAA league that's all pitching parks is outstanding. That's what Marte did. Playing mostly against guys 2-4 years older, he kicked butt.


Exactly.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:42 pm

Another Blown Save wrote:Averaging total minor league plate appearances is even more irrelevant, considering the fact that
1. Players obviously age and improve over years.
2. Some players have more AB in R or A leagues while others might have more AB at AA or AAA.


While averaging isn't irrelevant (not nearly as irrelevant as looking at 200 plate appearances), I don't disagree at all that the appropriate way to do this is to adjust each player's stats each year to create major league equivalences, but I'm lazy, and the basic comparison is easy enough to see if you open your eyes.

1. Marte achieved each level of play at a younger age.
2. Despite the fact that he was always playing against similar competition at a younger age, he outslugged KJ by more than 3%.
3. Thus, it's easy to see that Marte is a significantly better slugger than KJ.

But, since I have BP 2005 handy here, let's make an MLE comparison:

Kelly Johnson, MLE slugging at age 20: .378
Andy Marte, MLE slugging at age 20: .471
Andy Marte, lowest MLE slugging (at age 18): .419
KJ, highest MLE slugging (at age 22),: .429

AM, BP projected 2005 MLE slugging based on prior minor leage results: .486
KJ, BP projected 2005 slugging based on prior minor league results: .426

Any questions? The two aren't comparable.

Another Blown Save wrote:You got to be kidding me.
If you have power, it helps to able to hit a deep fly ball to move runners. Obviously, SF only counts if you move a runner from 3rd to home, but power hitters with good average are also able to move runners from 2nd to 3rd or even 1st to 2nd if you have a good lead-off man.


And you don't seem to have read much on how irrelevant exchanging outs for a single base is. I'm not kidding at all. Moving runners along is one of the least important skills. Do a google search on productive outs.

Another Blown Save wrote:Again, averaging minor league PA is really pointless, but just for the sake of arguing, Chavez was hitting 275 in minors before he was 21. Marte is still struggling to hit barely hit 275 when he is 22.

And where can I find this stats?


No, averaging is not pointless, and I'd much rather have data on 2,000 ABs averaged over all levels, then look at less than 200 ABs at one level as you do.

And, once again. PARK EFFECTS!

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Postby Wozzyck » Sun Dec 18, 2005 7:19 pm

Your struggle to get hand in this argument has at least been entertaining, ABS. If you insist on the raw numbers, here they are over the past four years (excluding rehab):

Marte: (Age, Level, Team, AB, SLG)
18 A Macon 488 0.492
19 A+ Myrtle Beach 463 0.469
20 AA Greenville 387 0.525
21 AAA Richmond 389 0.506
21 Maj Atlanta 57 0.211

Johnson: (Age, Level, Team, AB, SLG)
20 A+ Myrtle Beach 482 0.394
21 AA Greenville 334 0.425
22 AA Greenville 479 0.468
23 AAA Richmond 155 0.581
23 Maj Atlanta 290 0.397

Myrtle Beach is the most extreme pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. (It's park factor was 920, where 1000 is neutral, according to BA in 2004.) Greenville had a park factor of 992 in a pitcher's league, and Richmond had a park factor of 970.

Another Blown Save wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Size of a field doesn't tell you how it plays. Louisville's park is rated a hitter's park by the stats.

And where can I find this stats?


According to BA, Louisville was the second most extreme hitter's park in the International League, with a park factor of 1067.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040408parkfactors.html
Last edited by Wozzyck on Sun Dec 18, 2005 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Another Blown Save » Sun Dec 18, 2005 7:32 pm

Wozzyck wrote:Your struggle to get hand in this argument has at least been entertaining, ABS. If you insist on the raw numbers, here they are over the past four years (excluding rehab):

Marte: (Age, Level, Team, AB, SLG)
18 A Macon 488 0.492
19 A+ Myrtle Beach 463 0.469
20 AA Greenville 387 0.525
21 AAA Richmond 389 0.506

Johnson: (Age, Level, Team, AB, SLG)
20 A+ Myrtle Beach 482 0.394
21 AA Greenville 334 0.425
22 AA Greenville 479 0.468
23 AAA Richmond 155 0.581
23 Maj Atlanta 290 0.397

What are you trying to prove? We all know that Marte is a better slugger than Johnson.
The point I'm making in this thread is that Marte is overrated and if the Sox can get Crisp for him and Mota, they should do it
Wozzyck wrote:Myrtle Beach is the most extreme pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. (It's park factor was 920, where 1000 is neutral, according to BA in 2004.) Greenville had a park factor of 992 in a pitcher's league, and Richmond had a park factor of 970.


According to BA, Louisville was the second most extreme hitter's park in the International League, with a park factor of 1067.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040408parkfactors.html

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Postby Wozzyck » Sun Dec 18, 2005 7:51 pm

Another Blown Save wrote:What are you trying to prove? We all know that Marte is a better slugger than Johnson.


The following seems to imply that you think the comparison to Johnson is relevant.

Another Blown Save wrote:Kelly Johnson, who's only 1 year older than Marte, was able to have a higher slug & avg in the same park & team. Now look at his numbers in MLB.


Another Blown Save wrote:The point I'm making in this thread is that Marte is overrated and if the Sox can get Crisp for him and Mota, they should do it


Do you think that you've effectively made this point? :-?
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