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Rogers signs with the Tigers

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Postby Red Stripe » Thu Dec 08, 2005 6:26 pm

Tigers are a horribly managed team.
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Postby KolbSaves » Fri Dec 09, 2005 4:04 am

Well I've been winter vacationing from the board here but I have to come back with this news. Let me just repost things I posted as blog comments and I'll come back here and check it if you guys want to talk about it.

When I saw the words Rogers and Tigers in the headline my heart sunk. When I read that not only did they sign him, but for 8 mil a year for two years, I think I threw up in my mouth. Jason Johnson had a better season than he did last year.

Just think about that for a second.

I know that I'm coming out to the Copa this year with my "Fold Em Kenny" sign. Let's not forget how hard he was booed at the All Star game. I'm sure Joe Tiger Fan will eat up his AMAZING 3.46 era last year and won't see the truck they're about to be hit by.

PR (Pitching Runs) (Link)
Invented by John Thorn and Pete Palmer, this is a measure of the number of runs a pitcher saved compared to average. The formula is league-average RA/IP minus park-adjusted RA/IP, times total innings pitched. This is the same formula as Lee Sinins' RSAA (see below).

This is based on RA which is simply:

RA (Link)
Runs Allowed Per Nine Innings. Just like ERA, but with unearned runs, too.

These are not peripheral or component statistics. They just describe what happened. Rogers gave up x amount of runs and then we park adjust that and there's his PR.

The statistic that I based my Jason Johnson comparison on was The Hardball Times xFIP. Here is the definition:

xFIP (Link)
Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly, and adjusted for the home run tendencies of the ballpark. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA.

Where FIP has this definition:

FIP (Link)
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.

This is a component statistic, based on peripherals.

All this being said here's how Kenny Rogers fared in 2005:

xFIP: 4.88
FIP: 4.11

and Jason Johnson:

xFIP: 4.61
FIP: 4.39

Based on their adjusted component era last season, Kenny Rogers and Jason Johnson were similar pitchers. Kenny Rogers did indeed have better results last year, but the Tigers don't get those results, they get the pitcher that delievered those results. All of this is not even mentioning the fact that Rogers is 41 and has very little chance of improving and a good chance of falling apart from where he is now.
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Postby El Jefe » Fri Dec 09, 2005 10:20 am

I agree that this is a bad signing. I'm not a Tigers fan, but I was looking forward to seeing Verlander AND Zumaya in the rotation.

If you do sign an aging veteran, at least make it someone who will provide a positive influence on the young starters. :-t
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Postby mcqfesijiba » Fri Dec 09, 2005 2:09 pm

As a Tiger fan, pardon me while I go off somewhere and puke.

Let's overpay an old, old pitcher whom the fans hate (remember the All-Star game response this guy got?). We could have just as easily offered Jason Johnson arbitration and either got a pitcher who's younger and just as good in a much more reasonably financially, or if Johnson declined a free draft pick somewhere in the upcoming draft. But, what's the fun in that?
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