Sizemore ML totals before this year:
Now if you use 500 ab's as a season or roughly 1/4 of the above stats he would average (7) home runs and (25) sb's? The SB's are somewhat scewed by early stealing, he only stole 15 and 10 respectively in the two previous seasons. His K/BB ratioo went up as he progressed through the minors.
I'm sure he will be a solid player for years to come, but next year third round stud
Look how Podsednik was hyped after his breakout year in 2003, look what followed in 2004
Patterson also suffered the hype machine...
Everyone was looking for that huge breakout year in 2005:
2005-47-13-34-15 .2151 OUCH!
The cafe and many other boards go into overtime hyping players....some work out...others don't. Everyone wants to be the next person to say they picked the next Pujos.
Meanwhile they pick rookies and first year players too early ignoring proven players you can trust to put up good numbers therebye hurting their chances to be succussful in the current year. Ram and Agnes you both make good points.
Yes, if you blindly take minor league statistics and try to project major league performance, you get goofy answers. Garbage in, garbage out.
You have to adjust minor league numbers for park effects. Then you have to take into account player age and the level of the league they were playing in. Then, you have to understand how players develop as they age.
Sizemore was putting up slugging percentages of .480 as a very young 19/20 year old. That equates to a major league slugging percentage of .440 at age 20.
A very conservative estimate increases that by about 15 points per year of age:
21: 455; 22: 470; 23: 485 24: 500
Guys that slug like that hit homers. Like most good young players, the 37 doubles and triples he hit in AA are now turning into homers, just as those who projected him in 2003 said.
Neither you nor I KNOW whether any player will pan out next year. But, there is no more reason to doubt Sizemore than any "proven" player.
Look up my name on Podsednik. What you'll find is me calling him a fluke. Why? Because his minor league numbers, appropriately adjusted, screamed FLUKE!
Patterson IS a very good player. Go take a look at Beltran's age 23 season. LOTS of players throw a crapper out there--injury or just playing for Dusty "Proven Player" Baker, can do that.
But, Patterson is an example of a PROVEN PLAYER who tanked. Not an example of a prospect who failed. He had played for 2,000 ABs in the major leagues. That's proven.
And FWIW, I'm the guy that selected Pujols in the first round of his keeper draft after his rookie season, while fantasy mags screamed about sophomore slumps and my fellow managers laughed. Thanks to their generosity and the inability of lots of fantasy players to understand how to use minor league stats, I'm sitting on my second title.
To cap it off...
Minor league stats, properly understood, are just as good at predicting future performance as major leage stats. Neither has any claim to perfection.
A young player who has minor league stats that project to a certain level of performance is no more or less of a risk than a proven player.