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wkelly91 wrote:Sizemore has been picked at 31st in two mocks I've found, and Yahoo has him rated at 46th.
Would you spend your 3rd round draft on him?
I wouldn't touch him that early
Let's not forget the Morneau had good minor league numbers and was injured for most of the season. Besides that, Sizemore is in a much better lineup. I expect him to continue to have great numbers across the board.GotowarMissAgnes wrote:A little risky, but he's the kind of player you want to take a risk on. At age 23 his ten most comparable players averaged about 15 points above league average OPS+, which would be about .850 for the AL next year.
At the top end, three of his comps (Scott Rolen, Duke Snider, and Ellis Valentine), averaged about 40-50% above league average, which would put him about 1.000 in OPS. That's first round material.
Morneau shows the downside. Notice that his big drop was caused by a big drop in BA...the same thing happened to a few of Sizemore's comps, including Carlos Beltran and Wille Davis. That's often just some unlucky breaks. If you look at these guys, that's just a bump in the road,and they often make big leaps in future years.
So, in a one year league, I think that's a little early. In a keeper league, I think he's worth the risk. The top end (about a 20-30% chance of happening) is a Hall of Famer. The midpoint is a guy who posts OPS in the 850-950 most years from now until age 30 or so.
bronxxbomber wrote:Let's not forget the Morneau had good minor league numbers and was injured for most of the season. Besides that, Sizemore is in a much better lineup. I expect him to continue to have great numbers across the board.
RAmst23 wrote:3rd round for this guy?? I think Sizemore is a terrific player, loved having him on a couple teams last year. Performs solidly in three cats (BAVG, HRs, RBIs) above average at SB and great at Runs. Is Sizemore a 5 category guy? Sort of. He sure doesn't hurt you in any of the categories, but he doesn't really do anything above the average in the mentioned HR, RBI, and BA block. You're mainly drafting Sizemore for the help to SBs and Runs, so if you have SB covered by some other positions, then wait and see if he's available somewhere past the 5th.
On another note, Sizemore may be due for a drop in numbers. In 640 ABs last year, he walked 52 times and SO 132. Will his BA drop as pitchers start having him chase stuff out of the zone more? Also, while he had 22 SBs, he was CS 10 times. Just notes wanted to pass along!
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