Expected Batting Average formulae

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Expected Batting Average formulae

Does anyone have any formula for Expected batting average? or a site?
Zack Greinke...the next Greg Maddux. LOOK IT UP!
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jay
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Re: Expected Batting Average formulae

jay wrote:Does anyone have any formula for Expected batting average? or a site?

I have never heard of the stat EBA. But I would imagine it would be pretty close to his career BA. Move to Col. jump 20pts. Move to NYM lose 40pts. Thats my guess.
wrveres
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Re: Expected Batting Average formulae

jay wrote:Does anyone have any formula for Expected batting average? or a site?

Its in Ron Shandlers BB Forecaster.

A hitters batting average as calculated by multiplying the percentage of balls put in play CT (contact rate), by the chance that a ball in play falls for a hit. The likelihood that a ball in play falls for a hit is a product of the speed of the ball and distance it is hit (PX), and the speed of the batter (SX).

AL CT% x [(.000077 x PX) + (.00005 x SX) + .245]
NL 65 12 .252
HOOTIE
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Re: Expected Batting Average formulae

HOOTIE wrote:
jay wrote:Does anyone have any formula for Expected batting average? or a site?

Its in Ron Shandlers BB Forecaster.

A hitters batting average as calculated by multiplying the percentage of balls put in play CT (contact rate), by the chance that a ball in play falls for a hit. The likelihood that a ball in play falls for a hit is a product of the speed of the ball and distance it is hit (PX), and the speed of the batter (SX).

AL CT% x [(.000077 x PX) + (.00005 x SX) + .245]
NL 65 12 .252

ok Hootie ... you got me ..What?
Where are they getting the speed of the ball? is it from the pitcher to batter? or is it after the batter hits it. And player speed to first is not a commonly kept stat. Neither is distance.
I understand the principal but ... but I still don't get it.

And how can the NL be ahead of the AL with a DH
wrveres
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Players speed (SX), is taken from a Bill James concept that measures the various elements that compromise a runners speed skills.

1. Stolen base efficiency
2. Stolen base frequency
3. Triples rating
4. Runs scored as a percentage of times on base.

Each one comes with a math equation formula.

Roughly speaking, the likelihood of a hit depends on

(1) the speed of the ball (so that it can elude the fielders),
(2) the distance of the ball (so that it is a long way from 1st base),
(3) the speed of the batter (so he can out run the throw).
The (3) is established by James formula above in SX.
(1) and (2) are established in PX. This is a weighted ratio of doubles, triples, and hrs per ab.
HOOTIE
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