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bigh0rt wrote:_Simulacrum_ wrote:Beltre in the 18th round?? I'll take him there in every league. If he drops as far as you predict in next years draft I'll take a chance on him for sure- the man's got the talent, he's just got to unlock it. I predict his second year in Seattle is going to make believers out of you guys.
I know I'm in the minority, but I feel this way as well. I don't think Beltre's the 48 HR beast we saw in 2004 (though we did see the potential for that is there), but I don't think he's his 2005 self either. I'm a believer in this kid, and I don't believe the playing for the contract BS for a second, either. If Beltre's around in Round 18, I'd take him with every team I owned. I wouldn't count on him as your #1 3B heading into 2006, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he cracks the Top 10 there for fantasy purposes in '06.
bigjimblue wrote:You guys just don't get it! Free Agency. 2004 was his last year under contract to the Dodgers. Even though he was hurt he was playing hungry for a big contract. Then when he got it he went back to the pre 2004 Beltre. Free Agency makes all ball players better and some even more so!
wrveres wrote:you all crack me up ..
have you guys not learned how to handle Beltre yet?
You let somebody else draft him and then you trade for him at the beginning of July.
I thought everybody knew that
stumpak wrote:I agree with this. I see an almost Bobby Bonilla-like trajectory: general underacheivement interspersed with some years that are productive (with much better defense of course).
The issue with Beltre is that he he has played 7 seasons now, and there is a 100% track record of him producing ONLY under the following situations:
-He gets a wake-up call by being moved down the order (the Dodgers did this many times)
-He gets a wake-up call by his team importing a potential replacement (the Dodgers did this many times too)
-He gets a wake-up call by being threatened with benching (Dodgers had to resort to this in 03)
There is a long record of performance only under duress. This is why it boggled my mind last season when people claimed that he had a break-out year, that 1.000 OPS gusy never regress, etc etc. Beltre is a bird of a different color and the talent manifest itself fully only under particular conditions.
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