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mamorris wrote:I'd say they're talking about the wide range of results that can come about from taking such a small sample size (one week). I guess that means we're talking about real-life events, but I wouldn't say it impacts roto the same way as H2H. The thing with H2H is not all weeks are created equal. Each of the playoff weeks are probably worth 5-10 times any of the preliminary weeks in terms of how it affects your chances of winning (just a guess of course, but it seems fairly reasonable to me). So, bad weeks affect you different amounts, depending on when you have them. Through a season, you'll always have your bad weeks and your good weeks, but when you have either one is pretty much pure chance.
BTW, can anyone qualify the term "luck" for me with respect to how it applies to H2H? As I see it, there are two forms of luck in H2H - real-life events (player sitting, injury, slump) and scheduling luck. The former impacts roto just as much as it affects H2H, but the latter is unique to the format. However, unlike the former, the latter can be completely quantified and measured.
So, when you guys are complaining about "luck," which form is it?
StlSluggers wrote:BTW, can anyone qualify the term "luck" for me with respect to how it applies to H2H? As I see it, there are two forms of luck in H2H - real-life events (player sitting, injury, slump) and scheduling luck. The former impacts roto just as much as it affects H2H,
but the latter is unique to the format. However, unlike the former, the latter can be completely quantified and measured.
That is untrue because you forget to account for the 5 months of stats accumulated before Sept. In H2H playoffs, those 5 months get erased and all that matters is the current matchup no matter how dominant your team was in the previous 5 months. Your lead couldn't be all that strong if just one bad week could make you lose in Roto. And really, it doesn't even take a bad week to lose in H2H matchup -- it only takes one hot week from your opponent, and that's besides the fact that some of your stud players might get sat to be rested in real life.
rainman23 wrote:That is untrue because you forget to account for the 5 months of stats accumulated before Sept. In H2H playoffs, those 5 months get erased and all that matters is the current matchup no matter how dominant your team was in the previous 5 months. Your lead couldn't be all that strong if just one bad week could make you lose in Roto. And really, it doesn't even take a bad week to lose in H2H matchup -- it only takes one hot week from your opponent, and that's besides the fact that some of your stud players might get sat to be rested in real life.
Not to pick on you, Sultans, but you're the last poster (and the handiest).
This argument is killing me. There's a special word for these things: Playoffs. The reason they have a different name is because they are distinct from the regular season. You can still have a regular season champion, with all the honors and glory that attend that.
This argument that playoffs are bad because one bad week can negate a whole season...well, to me, it's silly. One has nothing to do with the other, unless you failed to set up payoffs, etc. to reward the regular season. If you were the regular season champion, you're still the regular season champion.
Playoffs -- like in every sport, and every simulation of sport -- are something else. It's a different, special thing you do at the end of the regular season.
Sure luck plays a bigger role in the playoffs, as it does in any short series. But the whole world does playoffs in almost every competitive situation, because we can intuitively see that there is some serious excitement in that short, somewhat unpredictable, series. Why is it a swell idea in virtually every other sporting context, but not in fantasy baseball?
If you want to be in a league that values excellence in the regular season more than the playoffs, then you structure your payoffs that way. For example, 80% to the regular season champion, 20% to the playoff champion. Whatever you want. Having playoffs in your league does not have to undermine your regular season at all. It's just another fun (seriously fun) thing you do at the completion of the regular season.
Sultans of Squat wrote:Anyway, while H2H is in some sense more like real life baseball due to the matchup format, it is far from being like baseball itself because of all the other things wrong w/ it. I seriously doubt you can come close at all unless you go w/ a good points system, instead of using roto-type stats, for H2H. Ideally, you probably need a points system that accurately *and* precisely simulates run production and prevention. You'd also need rules and limits that yield reasonably fair and equitable gameplay, including roughly equal amount of IPs used -- a good points system should probably eliminate any concerns about setting a minimum IP/G/AB rule although max IP/G is still needed.
To me, the easiest way to get there would be using something like Extrapolated Runs (XR) for offense and IP - R for pitching/defense (w/ maybe very small, justifiable bonuses/penalties for certain events). A points system like that would also reduce some of the impact of "luck" in the playoffs as there are less reliance on things that are prone to "luck", eg. no R's, no RBI's, no overvaluing of W's, etc.
As I've said before, I'd play H2H w/ a good points system, but probably not roto-type categories. Maybe also move the playoffs up a couple weeks to reduce the impact of Sept weirdness.
Now, I'm not saying there's anything wrong w/ what you're suggesting, but just that's not how things work out in practice. People don't generally want 2 champions. They want 1. In general, playoffs are for deciding that 1 champion, not for providing a completely separate champion.
Huh? What planet do you live on? Yes, *some* sports are organized to have some aspects of what you suggest, but AFAIK, none of them value a regular season "championship" higher than playoffs championship, if they value the regular season at all relative to the playoffs.
Rather, I'm arguing that it plays way too big a role in fantasy baseball because there's even more luck than usual. In real life sports playoffs, you don't have a Pujols sitting on the bench to rest up for something that happens *after* the playoffs in addition to other normal kinds of luck. You don't have a Halladay or Duke being coddled for leg injuries just because the games don't really matter anymore. Instead, you have a Schilling wrapping up his broken ankle to go out there and get you that crucial win at crunch time, bloody sock and all. You have a Hershiser that goes out and pitch almost every other day throughout the '88 playoffs, his long term health be damned, and nailing that final victory despite an arm that's gone numb from all the wear.
By payoffs, I assume you mean money then. If that's the case and if you generally only play money leagues, then I really have to wonder if you even *get* what some of us are arguing.
How many times have the Braves had the best record in baseball and not won the World Series? You think they should say they hate the format that baseball uses because they had the best record in baseball during the regular season so many years but didn't win the World Series because they had a "bad week"? The expression "On paper they have a better team" comes to mind. Another is " Thats why they play the games." H2h is most like real baseball because on paper a team might look like the champions(Yankees 05) but get beat down by a much lesser team( TampaBay 05) Thats why H2h is so much more fun to me.
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