Page 4 of 7

PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:48 pm
by GotowarMissAgnes
mweir145 wrote:But how exactly do we know Wright will continue to increase his numbers?
A player by the name of Vernon Wells had an amazing season in 2003, but never has reached any of those plateau's since, and it is unlikely he will ever do so again. My point being that Wright isn't as big a "for sure" player as many of us are saying he is. I mean the pitchers on other teams are going to have an whole offseason to take a look at him, though he has been able to get through his softmore season quite well.


We don't, for sure, but the probabilities are strongly in that favor.

The comparison with Wells is misguided. Wells did that at age 24 and his numbers were totally out of line with what he did in his prior major and minor league performances.

Wright is 22 (so much, much less likely to be simply hitting an early peak from which he won't improve) and the numbers he has posted are exactly in line with his prior minor league performance.

Once you look at the complete picture, instead of just focusing on one year's numbers, there's simply no doubt that Wright's a top 25 performer next year and for year's to come.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:23 pm
by The_Met_Threat
I kinda compare Wright to Miggy. Not in terms of how they play the game but that they are very young and look to be continually getting better. Wright is likely my favorite player but i expect those numbers everyone has been talking about and they are realistic. The chances of Bay ever reaching around 15 sb again are unrealistic. I really dont see how this guy has any speed and i believe most of his SB came from taking advantage of bad catchers and good situations. I mean 6 cs out of 10 attempts shows the true jason bay last year. While Wright we already know has speed, he could even put up 25 sb. I think Bay will hit around .290 - 30 - 100 - 100 - 10 Which are still very nice numbers but i believe hell keep a steady pace to this years numbers. I also think Bay strikes out a little too much compared to his # of walks, but still a very fine keeper indeed. I think Wright has a much higher ceiling, around a top 5 pick if he can get his power to 35 hr. Just imagine.

.305 - 110 - 35 - 120 - 25 Of course those numbers are generous, and im thinking more like 3 years down the road, but i think ill take that top 5. Also depending on where he plays in the lineup, and if Beltran can get OB more and get in scoring position.

;-D

PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:45 pm
by Cooner
The_Met_Threat wrote: I really dont see how this guy has any speed and i believe most of his SB came from taking advantage of bad catchers and good situations.


That's just plain smart baseball, the least likely thing to fluxuate. If Bay has learned when and where to run aggressively, he'll continue to put up 15+ SBs a year- kinda like Jeter does, not because he's the fastest guy around but because he knows when he can make it.

Note I said "if", I'm not completely convinced that's the case yet... but I can hope ;-D

PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:52 pm
by Amazinz
I've watched Wright a lot more than Bay obviously but I think their base stealing ability is pretty similar. Neither are burners and the stolen bases are a product of smart base-running and youth.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:53 pm
by GotowarMissAgnes
I think the Wright/Bay/Wells comparison here is a perfect example of why it is so important to understand the context of performance with respect to age and prior performance. If you do understand those you can pretty quickly see Wells' performance for the fluke that it was (he's a good, but not great player), Bay's performance as a very strong one which has limited further upside, and Wright's as one that screams STUD.

I made Wright a keeper in my 16 team 10 keeper league at the end of last year, because it was easy to see the signs. They were the same one that caused me to make Pujols a top ten pick when my current keeper league had their draft in 2002, when goofballs (like this one http://www.theguycode.com/stories/index ... rts&id=520) were worrying about sophomore slumps. Even the Cafe in Spring 2002 had Pujols only ranked as #21 in their top 100, a critical lowball rating that lets smart players jump in a steal the best players.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:09 pm
by baseball6791
Wright has been nothing but solid all year and I consider him a MAJOR steal grabbing him in the 15th round of my draft (11-teamer). He is a young player who does all the fundamentals and will only continue to get better. I think that he should be a 3-4th round pick next year, and possibly second in a keeper.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:13 pm
by godallahstar
Before aramis?

i don't know about that, it depends on if youre playing the positions as such. from a 3rd baseman i'd like power and rbi, exactly what aramis will give you. I don't think david wright will turn into a 40 home run guy.

fds

PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:29 pm
by joeg24
Just for fun lets compare Aramis and Wright

BA 302 vs 314
RUNS 72 vs 82
HR 31 vs 20
RBI 92 vs 82
SB 0 vs 14
OPS 925 vs 926
K's 60 to 84
Age Next April 27 vs 23
AB's this year 498 vs 500 - nice coicendence for this comparison

Tell you what, I like them both! One thing is that Aramis has missed some time and Wright plays damn near everyday of his career thus far.

Both are studs in my opinon

Re: fds

PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:18 pm
by curious_george_43545
joeg24 wrote:Just for fun lets compare Aramis and Wright

BA 302 vs 314
RUNS 72 vs 82
HR 31 vs 20
RBI 92 vs 82
SB 0 vs 14
OPS 925 vs 926
K's 60 to 84
Age Next April 27 vs 23
AB's this year 498 vs 500 - nice coicendence for this comparison

Tell you what, I like them both! One thing is that Aramis has missed some time and Wright plays damn near everyday of his career thus far.

Both are studs in my opinon


Aramis did have a bad start in the first half of this year as well. As for Wright I got him at number 4 next year and higher the year after that. I expect at the least probably .305 30 105 100 15 and he has upside to perform much better than that in 06. He's going to someday be a consistant 1st/2nd rounder for years to come, so ;-D to anyone who has him in a dyntasy, keeper, etc. type league.

Re: fds

PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:29 pm
by RynMan
curious_george_43545 wrote: As for Wright I got him at number 4 next year and higher the year after that. I expect at the least probably .305 30 105 100 15 and he has upside to perform much better than that in 06. He's going to someday be a consistant 1st/2nd rounder for years to come, so ;-D to anyone who has him in a dyntasy, keeper, etc. type league.


Curious as to who the 3 guys above him are?

1. A-Rod

I would put Wright right after A-Rod.