Yeah, I think we all know about the sabremetrics, but as I said before, had I not been watching this guy play on TV and seeing some rare talents for a 21 year old, I would be down on him too. In fact, I was down on him when he first came up before having seen him play and convinced he wasn't ready at all. There are few comparisons to this guy that come to mind, but my opinion based on what I've seen is that he will be pretty good regardless of plate discipline, but if he gains even decent plate discipline, we are looking at a star. Yeah, he may not be winning batting titles as it is, but if the ball is anywhere within 6 inches of the strike zone, this guy can crush it. And that throwing arm in right field is amazing. In my opinion he already has one of the best outfield arms in the game.TB13 wrote:mcqfesijiba wrote:There's no guarantee that he will totally crash. While I'm not totally confident that he will retain a .300+ BA, I do think he will remain productive all year.
Guarantee? No. However, history points to the fact that such hitting aberrations are very rare. His alarmingly high strikeout rate and the fact that he NEVER walks, points to a crash sooner or latter. There are just not that many people that can hit for such a high average, while continuing to not take walks and strike our at an Adam Dunn-like rate. This means that unless he gets a hit, he does not have productive at-bats. Statistically speaking, most of the time hitters like that fail. Off course there are noteable exceptions, however history tells you that unless he improves his plate discipline, eventually the league will catch up to him.
I also can't wait to see Marte finally become a regular next year. He and McCann are two guys I think sabremetrics fans will really take a liking to.
By the way, I certainly know about how bad plate discipline can be a problem. I've been a Tigers fan for years, and this franchise has seen the biggest strikeout kings come through, while having very few players who excel at drawing walks. And it has been painful watching some of these guys come through.