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Hudson BLOWS

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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:03 am

brandnew wrote:It doesn't necessarily mean the balls hit are all lucky. Who's to say they aren't hard hit balls coming from bad control by leaving a ball up in the zone? True his K rate declining is bad, but it shouldn't affect his effectiveness as a pitcher if he keeps his BB and HR totals low, which with the former, he hasn't.

How does he control, say as a example, his 26% hit rate in 03, versus his 30% in 04? Look at the 3 years his K rate was under 6. Those 3 years had a BAA of .267 or higher, while when he was K ing more, it was 230-240. He's even throwing more groundballs then ever, a 2.76 g/f ratio. His K/BB rate is barely over 1. The only thing saving his era is a .246 BAA with runners on, and a .202 with risp. He simply has to K more to get his BAA down. Right now those 2.76 g/f are finding holes.

Here is a nice example.

in 02 RJ had a 2.32 era
in 03 4.26
in 04 2.61

hit rate%

02 30%
03 36%
04 28%

Bad hit rate %,(basically luck), can impact your era. Even a great K pitcher is prone to it. But the point i was trying to make is Hudsons declining K rate, is putting more odds against him to pitch like he did in 99 or 00. He now depends alot on how the ball bounces.
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Postby brandnew » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:07 am

Yes, but a hit rate can also be the result of leaving pitches fat, and balls being legitimate base hits, not just "luck." I'm pretty sure that RJ's jump in 2 points of ERA was because he was sucking ass, not because of bad luck. The percentage of balls put in play being hits were because he was sucking ass, and hitters were hitting him hard, not bad luck.
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