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Hudson BLOWS

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Postby bd3521 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 9:45 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:Just what in a 1.5 WHIP is not bad? This is a round 4-7 pick pitching like a fantasy 6th starter. He has been pretty horrible when you factor that in.

this is a first for me and yanks04 ;-D
good posting
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Postby brandnew » Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:27 pm

I told ya he's overrated in fantasy... but anyways, his control has been horrible this year, and most of it may be accountable to the fact he's been pitching hurt, and trying to change his delivery to accomodate. This isn't vintage Hudson.
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon Aug 01, 2005 11:30 pm

Hudson doesn't blow, but his decline was visible. I had a thread before the year where i named Hudson the most overrated pitcher. This was because his K rate has been dropping for years, (Zito like). Some thought Leo meant a cy, but this is about what i expected, perhaps a bit more. Watch those declining K rates.

Last 5 years K rate

7.5
6.9
5.7
6.1
4.9

His huge g/f ratio saved him last year.
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Postby brandnew » Tue Aug 02, 2005 12:19 am

His K rate doesn't make a difference if he's not walking people, and not giving up HR's. His HR/9 is good, but his walk rate is terrible.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Aug 02, 2005 12:38 am

brandnew wrote:His K rate doesn't make a difference if he's not walking people, and not giving up HR's. His HR/9 is good, but his walk rate is terrible.


Sure it makes a difference. If you don't strike a guy out, bad things can happen if the batter hits it (hit rate %), luck. His BAA is a hefty .295. Compare it to is previous seasons. Look at his poor .456 slugging % against. It's not good to have a K rate decline, thus putting much more into luck, or balls hit hard.

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Postby brandnew » Tue Aug 02, 2005 12:46 am

Yeah, but Hudson's always been great as a groundball pitcher with a mediocre K rate. There was no need to worry about him this year and his declining K rate IF he didn't walk guys and give up HR's. His big problem this year has been his control, walking guys, and leaving pitches fat. It's not bad luck from not striking guys out. If you watch the games you can obviously see it's not the real Huddy... he's had terrible control this year.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:06 am

brandnew wrote:Yeah, but Hudson's always been great as a groundball pitcher with a mediocre K rate. There was no need to worry about him this year and his declining K rate IF he didn't walk guys and give up HR's. His big problem this year has been his control, walking guys, and leaving pitches fat. It's not bad luck from not striking guys out.


A 7.5 in 99, and 6.9 in 00 isn't mediocre. He's at 5.3 now.

Hit rate % is a matter of luck. Hudson can't control if those groundballs go 3 inches past a glove. 30% is average. His abnormal .295 BAA suggests alot of balls have found holes. It's always better to take things in your own hands (K's).
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Postby brandnew » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:20 am

It doesn't necessarily mean the balls hit are all lucky. Who's to say they aren't hard hit balls coming from bad control by leaving a ball up in the zone? True his K rate declining is bad, but it shouldn't affect his effectiveness as a pitcher if he keeps his BB and HR totals low, which with the former, he hasn't.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:36 am

A classic case of stats driving the analysis and not stats used to analyze the results. His control blows, so naturally they hit more and K less. It is not the other way around where he is King less and therefore not getting people out. This is not Clemens we are talking about. Hudson is not a power pitcher. If his control was better, he would get more Ks as he hits his spots and changes speed/sinks the ball. He throws meatballs over the heart of the plate and he gets hit.
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Postby brandnew » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:51 am

TheYanks04 wrote:A classic case of stats driving the analysis and not stats used to analyze the results. His control blows, so naturally they hit more and K less. It is not the other way around where he is King less and therefore not getting people out. This is not Clemens we are talking about. Hudson is not a power pitcher. If his control was better, he would get more Ks as he hits his spots and changes speed/sinks the ball. He throws meatballs over the heart of the plate and he gets hit.


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