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Vlad out 6-8 weeks

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Postby jdh » Fri Jun 13, 2003 12:07 pm

There will always be lingering questions about his back going into next year, pretty much the same as Nomar is still considered an injury risk due to his wrist injury two years ago. It would depend on whether he resumes stealing bases when he does come back. If Vlad is not stealing bases, I would consider Pujols, Bonds, Maggs, Berkman, Manny and possibly Ichiro to be better OF options than Vlad, especially with the injury risk taking into account.
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Postby Nero » Fri Jun 13, 2003 12:30 pm

Well a disc problem is one of those things that isn't recurring. It can be repaired to good as new condition.

What is a wildcard however is where Vlad is going to play next year.

Let's be straight for a sec....Pujols, Bonds, Maggs, Berkman and Manny have something in common other than being great hitters...they are the centerpieces of some pretty potent lineups.

Now I don't have any idea where Vlad might land but imagine for a sec purely hypothetical) that he lands on the Yanks, Cubs or Red Sox in the 3-4-5 slot. The fact that he's as good as he is with very little protection or help in his lineup is pretty sensational.

How would you feel about his value compared to the other guys then? How would he perform sandwiched between Nomar-Manny, Jeter-Giambi or Patterson-Sosa?
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Postby WinLoseOrBrawl » Fri Jun 13, 2003 12:49 pm

Vlad definetely still has a lot of value in head to head leagues. Vlad will be back by the time the playoffs start, and that is the truly important part of the fantasy season. As long as the rest of your team is good enough to get you into the playoffs, Vlad will be an added thump to lead you to victory those last few weeks.

On the other hand, I can definetely see a much more severe decrease in value in Roto Leagues.
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Postby kcs261 » Fri Jun 13, 2003 1:06 pm

I hate to be blunt: But Vlad is shot for the season. Seriously, if you hold out hope that he is going to carry you at some point this year, you will be terribly disappointed.

Herniated discs ARE chronic problems -- absent surgically repairing them. And so far, no word has been given that this will be done. And even if it was done, that would put him on the shelf until next season.

Obviously, nothing is absolute here. Exceptions to rules do exist. But if you want to play the odds, abide by this simple rule:

**Do NOT gamble on players with herniated discs. The deck is so heavily stacked against players with this injury, in year one, that it's not worth the risk.**

After all, the only guy in recent memory who has shown any ability to play through this injury without a big dropoff is A-Rod, and it's still too early in the season to reach a conclusion.

So do what every fantasy manager should do: Play the odds. Don't gamble on rare exceptions.
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