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Baseball Strategy Question -- Burnitz bunt on Sunday: Smart?

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Postby OREO fan » Tue Jul 26, 2005 4:11 pm

interesting debate

i like the move - a few more interesting stats

barrett with RISP this year


ramirez with RISP this year


take it for what its worth
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Postby StlSluggers » Tue Jul 26, 2005 4:46 pm

Did you guys ever consider that maybe Burnitz bunted on his own accord?

;-7 :-D
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Postby Tavish » Tue Jul 26, 2005 5:56 pm

It was absolutely the right call in that situation. You have to increase your chance of winning whenever you can, it doesn't matter how much the increases. Getting the runner to third with one out is a better winning oppurtunity than a runner at second with no outs in that situation.
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Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:10 pm

I think it was the right move. Here's why. The basic goal of the Cubs in this situation is to get one run, the go ahead run. Now, with Burnitz and Ramirez swinging away, the chances of the Cubs having at least one out and the bases loaded are about 59%.
The chances of at least one run scoring is about 50%.

Just so you know, I only used OBP and AVG to calculate this. I assumed that the runner would score from 2nd on any hit. I also assumed that Burnitz would not move a runner up on a fly ball to RF, etc. (in which case I think the Cubs would have walked Ramirez anyways) , and I also assumed that Burnitz and/or Ramirez would have avoided grounding into the double play.

Now, with one out and the bases loaded, the Cubs chances of at least scoring one run is 52.5%

Again, I only used OBP and AVG to calculate this (because I'm lazy ;-D). In addition, I assumed that Barrett could not hit a sac fly, or make any type of out in which a run scored. I also assumed that Barrett would not ground into a double play.

Anyways, though my math is obviously and admittedly flawed, I think it shows that the Cubs slightly increased their chances of scoring by having Burnitz bunt. ;-D to Dusty.
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