So when I was watching the game on Sunday night, I was yelling at Dusty Baker through the TV. Obviously he didn't hear me, although I'm sure my neighbors did. After I looked at the data, it actually seems like a more reasonable strategy than I had originally thought. However, I still stand by my initial thought which is that it was not the right move.
Here's data which comes from Project Scoresheet data 1984-1994:
outs runners expected prob > 0 count total runs shutout
0 12- 1.50 0.636 21978 32895 7994
1 -23 1.40 0.686 14152 19800 4443
In other words, with no outs and runners on first and second, 1.5 runs are expected to score, and there's a 63.6% chance of at least one run scoring, whereas after a successful bunt, the run expectation goes down to 1.4, while the chance of at least one run scoring goes up to 68.6%.
So even though statistically, the changes of scoring a run actually go up if you bunt the runner to 3rd, these statistics are taken out of context. If the 6th and 7th place hitters are on 1st and 2nd, and you have the 8th place hitter & pitcher up, the play is to bunt the runners over and pinch-hit for the pitcher (who'll probably get walked).
However, when you have your power hitters up, especially when one of them (Aramis) is arguably the hottest hitter in baseball, you absolutely cannot take the bats out of their hands.
It all worked out in the end, but I was wondering how the other Cafe members felt about Dusty's move. It's interesting to see the variety of opinions here. Perhaps this should've been a poll...