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zhutou wrote:ANYONE who says they predicted derrek to have the season that he's having right now is spewing BS. no way could anyone have predicted his avg to be 100 points higher than his norm.
stevelabny wrote:luck is the w(h)ine of the loser.
I have Carlos Beltran this year. WAAAAH
Oh wait, I also have D Lee and Ensberg. OOOOO
Last year before the draft "D Lee in Wrigley? With THAT lineup? I'm gonna get him" Someone knew I wanted D Lee, bid all of his remaining money to get him (would have left him with TWELVE one dollar players) ... I tried to stick the guy with Lee and kill his team, but someone else bailed him out. Lee didnt have the year I expected.
This year all the nimrods kept saying the Cubs lineup suffers without Sosa and Alou. I see Burnitz as an Alou replacement, Ramirez as now 100% dependable, Nomar and Patterson (um...) and say "i HAVE to get d lee this year"
I paid $24 to get him, and my league mates told me I overpaid to make up for not getting him last year.
Did I see THIS coming? no. Did I see a career year coming? Absolutely.
Ensberg went UNDRAFTED. He was on my list as guys to pick up at the end of the draft... and I admit, I just outright forgot about him in the reserve rounds. As soon as I looked over the league when I got home I said "Ensberg is the ONE guy who shouldve been drafted and wasn't. I am a moron. I will cut someone before the season even starts (which I NEVER do) and pick this guy up before someone else does." Bingo.
I sat with Ensberg through a bad first month, I sat with Zito too.
I sat with Hafner, I continue to sit all year with Belran. I've had Aaron Boone and John Buck on my team all year. One by one, these guys turn it around. When Beltran finally gets hot, I will win this league running away.
Every year I hear people complain about injuries.
Beltran has had a bum leg, I just missed a week from dizzy Hafner, I've taken a few Zeros for a week from other minor injuries.
But after Cameron, Benson and Piniero came back from their season opening injuries, I've had ZERO trips to the DL.
ZERO. Which is a record even for me. And I always avoid big injuries to my team. Luck? Not if you do it every year.
I have wins far below the expected number for my other pitching stats. Do I cry bad luck? Well sure, sometimes, but I don't cry "bad luck" and let it affect the rest of my managing.
Luck is what happens when your league mates don't understand what the heck is going on.
Luck is knowing when to patiently wait for a guy to break out of a slump, and when to cut your losses and move on.
Luck is drafting well enough on draft day, so that for every Beltran-bust you have a DLee-blast.
Luck is buying low and selling high OR sitting around with the same team you drafted while everyone else is stupid.
Luck is just one more obstacle on the road to victory.
Bukoski77 wrote:This thread is reminding me of the great CLUTCH debates.
Luck exists but it doesn't exist.
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