I strongly disagree with many of the players previously mentioned. In fact, I event think many are GREAT targets for next year, just because they had such bad years. Mike Lowell is a premium example. I don't think he's suddenly lost his swing and could put up numbers close to 30-100 in the teen rounds. I too, had already blacklisted players like Sammy this season. (Just to brag, I blacklisted Ollie Perez and Jason Schmidt due to injury concerns prior to the season. Well, looky what happened with them...though it wasn't the elbow for Ollie as I expected. I purposely didn't draft Rolen because I knew Blalock, Chavez, or Chipper would do just as well...he had an out of the world season in 2004).
Personally, I would avoid players who had flukish seasons that are unlikely to be repeated (or superb seasons that are just TOO good, even if they'll still be good...basically overachievers), instead of the players that y'all have mentioned who have underachieved. Some should bounce back, especially say, Chavez, who's been superb since a rough start. Thome's lost his average, but he'll still jack 45 if healthy.
D-Train, Roberts, and Lee are superb examples. To add to them (now, there's more baseball to be played, so some of these guys may cool down and thus be forgotten as "studs"...remember, last impressions are critical):
Andruw Jones. Way too streaky. I don't believe he's suddenly found a batting eye.
Carlos Lee. High scoreboard stats (HR/RBI/R) mask the fact that he's only hitting .264. Hasn't had that good numbers in his career.
Torii Hunter. Value is tied up with steals...streaky runner...not sure whether or not he'll be off.
Morgan Ensberg. Though he was hurt last year resulting in a power drop, this sort of surge looks unreal at this age. I want another year before I buy it...meaning, I won't pay value for what he's done.
Pat Burrell. Similar to Andruw Jones.
Chad Cordero. Inflated save numbers....and we all now how unpredictable opportunities can be. I also do not believe he's THAT good.
Mark Buehrle. He may have turned the corner, but he was superb in 2001, too, before a drop in 2002-2004. I don't think he's this good, though the most efficient pitcher in the game.
John Smoltz. Sorry, John...you've been a top pitcher this year, but how's your arm going to react after a year's workload?
Chris Carpenter. Can he stay off the DL? I also the ERA and WHIP will be closer to 3.5/1.2 over a full season next year. Typical "too good" type of player.
Matt Clement. Big market exposure makes him very overrated. Certianly not an ace like some think.
Eddie Guardado. Still didn't get that shoulder problem taken care of...plus if he isn't dealt this offseason (or does his deal expire?)
Jon Garland. Show me that you're for real, Jon. I'll let somebody else take that risk.
Rattle some more: Chris Young, Todd Jones (god forbid if he keeps that job for the rest of the year), Dustin Hermanson, Bruce Chen, Adam Eaton, Kenny Rogers...too lazy to type everything out.
Oh, for consistency, I'm still blacklisting Schmidt. As for Ollie, I think, if he's taken late enough, he's a great gamble. He was going in the early rounds this year and considering the risk, I would've rather gone with say, Halladay, but considering Perez's upside, he'd be a nice pick in the early teens due to his rough season.
I repeat, these are not players that I'd lay off of period, but I feel like they'll go too early in drafts and that I'm better off capitalizing with other players, who either have more upside or track record. Or, just take bargain players later.
Last edited by warrick95 on Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.