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5X5 2002 "Cheat Sheet"

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5X5 2002 "Cheat Sheet"

Postby Walden warriors » Fri Jan 24, 2003 11:54 pm

Many of you may find my logic odd or atleast the findings that my logic brings up, but here is the cheat sheet that SHOULD have been brought into the 2002 draft. I am assuming a 10-team league with 25 man rosters in a standard 5X5 league.

I've taken where each of the top 250 players ranked in each of the standard 5X5 categories relative to other players. Upon adding up each players rank in each of the categories, here is the result....(the number next to each player is the sum of their ranks)

48 Guerrero, Vladimir (RF-Mon)
78 Soriano, Alfonso (2B-NYY)
86 Bonds, Barry (LF-SF) 
94 Rodriguez, Alex (SS-Tex)
111 Martinez, Pedro (SP-Bos) 
111 Ordonez, Magglio (RF-CWS) 
122 Johnson, Randy (SP-Ari) 
134 Tejada, Miguel (SS-Oak) 
138 Berkman, Lance (LF, CF-Hou)
154 Giles, Brian (LF, CF-Pit) 
-
155 Giambi, Jason (1B, DH-NYY)
156 Green, Shawn (RF-LA)
156 Beltran, Carlos (CF-KC) 
157 Helton, Todd (1B-Col) 
161 Pujols, Albert (3B, 1B, LF, RF-StL) 
163 Schilling, Curt (SP-Ari) 
164 Kent, Jeff (2B, 1B-SF)
175 Lowe, Derek (RP, SP-Bos)
175 Zito, Barry (SP-Oak)
182 Abreu, Bobby (RF, CF-Phi)
-
187 Anderson, Garret (LF-Ana)
194 Walker, Larry (RF-Col)
195 Hunter, Torii (CF-Min)
197 Perez, Odalis (SP, RP-LA) 
200 Sosa, Sammy (RF-ChC)
200 Garciaparra, Nomar (SS-Bos)
201 Thome, Jim (1B, DH-Cle) 
202 Jones, Chipper (3B, LF-Atl) 
204 Williams, Bernie (CF-NYY)
205 Jeter, Derek (SS-NYY)
-
214 Wakefield, Tim (RP, SP-Bos) 
219 Gonzalez, Luis (LF-Ari)
220 Halladay, Roy (SP-Tor)
220 Oswalt, Roy (SP, RP-Hou)
231 Bagwell, Jeff (1B-Hou)
233 Dotel, Octavio (RP, SP-Hou)
235 Klesko, Ryan (1B, RF-SD)
236 Millwood, Kevin (SP-Atl)
239 Chavez, Eric (3B-Oak)
244 Gagne, Eric (SP, RP-LA) 
-
248 Sweeney, Mike (1B, DH-KC) 
250 Jones, Jacque (LF-Min) 
251 Colon, Bartolo (SP-Mon)
251 Boone, Bret (2B-Sea) 
253 Kim, Byung-Hyun (RP-Ari)
253 Washburn, Jarrod (SP-Ana)
253 Glaus, Troy (3B-Ana)
253 Sheffield, Gary (LF, RF-Atl)
254 Rhodes, Arthur (RP-Sea)
255 Edmonds, Jim (CF-StL) 
-
255 Floyd, Cliff (LF, RF, DH-Bos) 
256 Lee, Derrek (1B-Fla)
258 Mulder, Mark (SP-Oak) 
258 Ramirez, Manny (DH, LF-Bos) 
260 Burrell, Pat (LF-Phi)
261 Finley, Steve (CF-Ari)
261 Hinske, Eric (3B-Tor)
263 Rolen, Scott (3B-StL) 
263 Spivey, Junior (2B-Ari)
263 Durham, Ray (2B, DH-Oak)
-
266 Moyer, Jamie (SP-Sea)
267 Wolf, Randy (SP-Phi)
268 Palmeiro, Rafael (1B, DH-Tex)
270 Vidro, Jose (2B-Mon)
271 Burks, Ellis (DH, LF-Cle)
272 Maddux, Greg (SP-Atl) 
272 Delgado, Carlos (1B-Tor) 
278 Hudson, Tim (SP-Oak)
278 Damon, Johnny (CF, LF-Bos)
283 Jones, Andruw (CF-Atl) 
-
286 Burnett, A.J. (SP-Fla) 
290 Schmidt, Jason (SP-SF) 
294 Winn, Randy (RF, CF-TB)
296 Suzuki, Ichiro (RF-Sea)
299 Wells, Vernon (CF-Tor) 
301 Glavine, Tom (SP-Atl)
306 Nen, Robb (RP-SF)
308 Mussina, Mike (SP-NYY)
310 Ortiz, Ramon (SP-Ana)
314 Encarnacion, Juan (RF, CF-Fla)
-
314 Renteria, Edgar (SS-StL)
315 Wagner, Billy (RP-Hou) 
315 Eckstein, David (SS-Ana)
319 Lopez, Rodrigo (RP, SP-Bal) 
319 Konerko, Paul (1B-CWS)
319 Ibanez, Raul (DH, RF, LF, 1B-KC)
319 Erstad, Darin (CF-Ana)
321 Clement, Matt (SP-ChC) 
322 Pineiro, Joel (SP, RP-Sea)
323 Boone, Aaron (3B, SS-Cin)
-
326 Nomo, Hideo (SP-LA)
327 Byrd, Paul (RP, SP-KC)
327 Padilla, Vicente (RP, SP-Phi)
327 Salmon, Tim (RF, DH-Ana)
329 Santana, Johan (RP, SP-Min)
329 Miller, Wade (SP-Hou) 
330 Morris, Matt (SP-StL) 
333 Buehrle, Mark (SP-CWS) 
334 Williams, Woody (SP-StL)
336 Hillenbrand, Shea (3B-Bos)
-
339 Wells, David (SP-NYY) 
339 Mondesi, Raul (RF-NYY)
339 Lowell, Mike (3B-Fla)
340 Wood, Kerry (SP-ChC)
341 Reed, Rick (SP-Min)
341 Weaver, Jeff (SP, RP-NYY)
343 Ohka, Tomokazu (SP-Mon)
346 Sexson, Richie (1B-Mil)
346 Cameron, Mike (CF-Sea)
347 Leiter, Al (SP-NYM)
-
348 Romero, J.C. (SP, RP-Min)
348 Koch, Billy (RP-Oak)
349 Olerud, John (1B-Sea)
354 Sasaki, Kazuhiro (RP-Sea) 
358 Dunn, Adam (RF, LF, 1B-Cin)
360 Kotsay, Mark (CF-SD)
360 Stewart, Shannon (LF, DH-Tor)
362 Percival, Troy (RP-Ana)
364 Batista, Tony (3B, DH, SS-Bal)
365 Embree, Alan (RP-Bos)
-
365 Vizquel, Omar (SS-Cle)
372 Sanders, Reggie (RF-SF)
374 Isringhausen, Jason (RP-StL)
375 Prior, MarkDL (SP-ChC)
376 Hawkins, LaTroy (RP-Min)
376 Fullmer, Brad (DH, 1B-Ana)
378 Remlinger, Mike (RP-Atl)
378 Hernandez, Orlando (SP-NYY)
380 Benitez, Armando (RP-NYM)
380 Hammond, Chris (RP-Atl) 
-
381 Smoltz, John (RP, SP-Atl) 
384 Vizcaino, Luis (RP-Mil)
386 Piazza, Mike (C-NYM)
386 McGriff, Fred (1B, DH-ChC) 
392 Garcia, Freddy (SP-Sea) 
392 Ortiz, Russ (SP-SF) 
394 Vazquez, Javier (SP-Mon)
395 Eischen, Joey (RP-Mon)
396 Hernandez, Jose (SS-Mil) 
399 Borowski, Joe (SP, RP-ChC)
-
399 Castillo, Luis (2B-Fla)
400 Nixon, Trot (RF, CF-Bos)
402 Williamson, Scott (RP-Cin)
403 Rodriguez, Ivan (C-Tex) 
403 Alfonzo, Edgardo (2B, 3B-NYM)
404 Clemens, Roger (SP-NYY) 
404 Walker, Todd (2B-Cin)
406 Moss, Damian (RP, SP-Atl)
407 Rueter, Kirk (SP-SF)
409 Guardado, Eddie (RP-Min)
-
409 Thomas, Frank (DH-CWS) 
409 Huff, Aubrey (3B, DH, 1B-TB)
410 Furcal, Rafael (SS-Atl)
411 Pettitte, Andy (SP-NYY) 
411 Wilson, Preston (CF-Fla)
412 Lawrence, Brian (SP, RP-SD)
412 Biggio, Craig (2B-Hou)
413 Groom, Buddy (RP-Bal)
413 Lofton, Kenny (CF-SF)
419 Worrell, Tim (RP-SF)
-
421 Pierre, Juan (CF-Col)
423 Wells, Kip (RP, SP-Pit) 
425 Marte, Damaso (RP-CWS)
425 Womack, Tony (SS-Ari)
427 Milton, Eric (SP-Min)
429 Julio, Jorge (RP-Bal)
430 Appier, Kevin (SP-Ana)
432 Urbina, Ugueth (RP-Bos) 
432 Lee, Carlos (LF, DH-CWS) 
432 Posada, Jorge (C-NYY)
-
433 Kennedy, Adam (2B-Ana)
434 Stewart, Scott (RP-Mon)
435 Hoffman, Trevor (RP-SD) 
435 Daal, Omar (SP, RP-LA) 
439 Weber, Ben (RP-Ana)
440 Foulke, Keith (RP-CWS) 
440 Koskie, Corey (3B-Min) 
441 Holmes, Darren (RP-Atl)
441 Cordero, Francisco (RP-Tex)
443 Kearns, AustinDL (LF, RF-Cin) 
-
445 Ventura, Robin (3B-NYY)
447 Nunez, Vladimir (RP, SP-Fla)
447 Dessens, Elmer (SP-Cin)
447 Finley, Chuck (SP-StL) 
448 Lidle, Cory (SP-Oak)
448 Beltre, Adrian (3B-LA)
448 Jordan, Brian (RF, LF-LA) 
449 Rollins, Jimmy (SS-Phi) 
451 Sabathia, C.C. (SP-Cle) 
454 Carter, Lance (RP-TB)
-
456 Dye, Jermaine (RF, DH-Oak) 
457 Guzman, Cristian (SS-Min)
463 Rogers, Kenny (SP-Tex) 
464 Guthrie, Mark (RP-NYM)
465 Donnelly, Brendan (RP-Ana)
465 Graves, Danny (RP, SP-Cin) 
466 Sauerbeck, Scott (RP-Pit)
467 Astacio, Pedro (SP-NYM) 
468 Sheets, Ben (SP-Mil) 
472 Rivera, Mariano (RP-NYY) 
-
472 Trachsel, Steve (SP-NYM)
475 Shields, Scot (RP-Ana)
475 Valentin, Jose (3B, SS, CF-CWS)
478 Timlin, Mike (RP-Phi)
478 Higginson, Bobby (LF-Det)
479 Crudale, Mike (RP-StL)
479 Alomar, Roberto (2B-NYM)
481 Santiago, Benito (C-SF) 
483 Lieber, JonDL (SP-ChC)
483 Lohse, Kyle (SP-Min)
-
484 Zeile, Todd (1B, 3B-Col)
486 Patterson, Corey (CF-ChC) 
487 White, GabeDL (RP-Cin)
487 Haynes, Jimmy (SP-Cin) 
491 Durocher, Jayson (RP-Mil)
491 Bradford, Chad (RP-Oak)
493 Valdes, Ismael (SP-Sea)
493 Ishii, Kazuhisa (SP-LA)
494 Wright, Dan (SP-CWS) 
494 Martinez, Tino (1B-StL)
-
495 Shuey, Paul (RP-LA)
497 Armas Jr., Tony (SP-Mon) 
498 Helling, Rick (SP-Ari)
498 Hernandez, Livan (SP-SF) 
499 Lilly, Ted (SP, RP-Oak) 
499 Fiore, Tony (RP-Min)
500 Alou, Moises (RF, LF-ChC) 
500 Lo Duca, Paul (C, 1B-LA)
503 Jennings, Jason (SP-Col) 
-
504 Tomko, Brett (RP, SP-SD) 
505 Mendoza, Ramiro (RP-NYY)
505 Gibbons, Jay (LF, DH, RF, 1B-Bal)
506 Karsay, Steve (RP-NYY)
506 Vina, Fernando (2B-StL)
507 Baez, Danys (RP, SP-Cle)
508 Vaughn, Mo (1B-NYM) 
508 Conine, Jeff (1B, LF, 3B, RF-Bal)
509 Redman, Mark (SP-Det)
509 Fogg, Josh (RP, SP-Pit)
-
510 Cox, Steve (1B, DH-TB)
510 Hollandsworth, Todd (LF, RF, CF-Tex) 
511 Looper, Braden (RP-Fla) 
511 Beckett, Josh (SP-Fla) 
511 Ashby, Andy (SP-LA) 
511 Cabrera, Orlando (SS-Mon)
512 Cruz, Jose (CF, LF, RF-Tor)
514 Stanton, Mike (RP-NYY)
516 Batista, Miguel (RP, SP-Ari)
516 Roberts, Dave (LF, CF-LA) 
518 Williams, Mike (RP-Pit)

Now, there are some who insist that Curt Schilling should not be ranked behind Carlos Beltran, or any other number of seemingly ridiculous errors that this system brings forth. Especially noteworthy are the prominence of middle relievers, some ranked higher than closers.

Again, this ranking system emphasizes BALANCE among all 10 categories as integral. How well a player dominated EACH OF THE TEN categories relative to other players is all that determined this list. There were those who, thinking they were desperate for saves, picked up Vladimir Nunez last year. Had all five pitching categories been considered, this desperation for specialization is dissolved, and the team is better for it.

There are some noteworthy problems with this list. Namely, it is in no way a cheat sheet, in the sense that it is based STRICTLY on LAST year's performance. It also will not factor in positional scarcity (only 4 catchers in the top 250). Some players were injured, park effects, etc. I don't pretend this list is perfect.

This system does involve stepping out of one's comfort zone. For example, last year in a 5X5 league, Octavio Dotel was more statistically valuable than Eric Gagne. Mock it if you can't accept that, but it's true (by the way, I recognize Gagne had WAY more [/i]trade value[/i] than Dotel; I'm referring to actual fantasy wise statistical output, where balance is key, not specialization. And had a 5x5 league member had this sheet on his respective draft day, he'd be a champion today.

I've used this system every year I've played fantasy baseball, and I have never missed the world series in any of my leagues.

Thoughts?
Tom in the 847
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Postby cwebb » Sat Jan 25, 2003 5:31 am

Well, the values might be correct, but drafting according to that list would get you in trouble at shallow positions like C, SS or 2B!

Nice work you have done, but how do you draft if everyone goes for the best at those positions too early? You get better hitters elsewhere or better pitchers but have to draft left-overs later.
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Postby The Natural » Sat Jan 25, 2003 9:12 am

Again, this ranking system emphasizes BALANCE among all 10 categories as integral. How well a player dominated EACH OF THE TEN categories relative to other players is all that determined this list.



Did you rank players based on all 10 categories or did you use the 5 hitting categories for position players and the 5 pitching categries for pitchers? Looking at your rankings you must have done the latter but the above phrase makes it sound like you ranked all players in every category.

I think this list is helpful in tweaking one's own cheat sheet.

Thank you. ;-D
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Postby Arlo » Sat Jan 25, 2003 9:51 am

Great food for thought!

I do disagree about Dotel vs. Gagne, though, because not all categories are created equal.

Disregarding Dotel's two extra wins and four more k's for the moment (with an innings cap such as most roto leagues have, strikeouts are actually significantly in Gagne's favor), Dotel's slight edge in both whip and era don't make up for Gagne's saves when you look at these players' effects on an entire pitching staff.

Don't get me wrong - I'm a great believer in middle relief (and stepping out of your comfort zone :-) ). Dotel's value is high, just not as high as Gagne's.

I like the thinking used in this ranking, but some categories such as saves or, to a lesser extent, stolen bases, can't be factored in quite so easily. In this case, specialization can win out over balance, which would need to be taken into account.

Likewise, when looking at average, era and whip, the impact on your team's overall numbers needs to be considered rather than just the absolute number. If Ichiro hits .333 with as many at bats as he had last season, it'll help your team more than Barry Bonds hitting for .345, yet this method would give greater value to Bonds' average. Still, nothing a bit of minor tweaking can't fix. ;-D
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Postby Walden warriors » Sat Jan 25, 2003 12:05 pm

Are all positions created equally? ERA gets one as many category wins as do Saves. While I respect that ABs need to be factored in, and with it IP, Dotel's ability to beat Gagne at all of them says something.

Besides, is anyone REALLY going to draft Dotel in the 4th round of a 10 team league? Of course not. You'll see Dotel there on your cheat sheet and save him for later. You got a 4th round reliever at a 22nd round price.

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Postby EugeneStyles » Sat Jan 25, 2003 2:03 pm

walden - Arlo is absolutely correct. You are simplifying things too much. Your list can be a good tool, but if you use it to pick your team straight up, you're fooling yourself, even if you believe that players will exactly duplicate their 2002 stats.

For one thing, if you don't consider spreading your talent out across the different categories, you're liable to end up winning RBIs and WHIP and ERA handily, but coming up woefully short in SBs and SVs. Especially because certain stats are rare. It's much harder to come by a guy with high SBs who won't hurt you in HRs and BA.

Valuing Dotel too high is a mistake, because he only really contributes in WHIP and ERA. He doesn't generally get W's or SV's. On top of that, his IP are too low for him to really swing your team's ERA and WHIP all by himself. He may looks like the best pitcher for those stats, but a pitcher with 2.32 ERA and 260 innings pitched (i.e. Randy Johnson) will do more to lower your staff ERA than a pitcher with a 1.85 ERA and 97 innings pitched. I *like* Dotel, but only as a 7th pitcher, after 4 starters and 2 closers.

So, your list is very useful as long as you keep in mind 3 caveats. a) The 3 "average" categories are weighted by innings and at bats. b) Some positions are harder to find good talent at (you address this one.) and c) Some stat categores are rarer than others, especially if you want a player that contributes in multiple areas.

edit: for a similar list with these types of things considered, check out Mastersball.com's final 2002 value sheet. Other sites have similar lists calculated in slightly different ways.
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