Return to Baseball Leftovers

Promising second half rookies

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Promising second half rookies

Postby orange12 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:22 pm

What do you guys think of Zach Duke and Scott Olsen? Two rookie pitchers who've had at least two great starts under their belts already.

S. Olsen: 3GS 18.2IP 1-0 20K 2.89ERA 1.34WHIP .229BAA
Z. Duke: 2GS 14IP 1-0 17K 1.93ERA 0.93WHIP .212BAA

Duke's two starts against Philly and Milwaukee really looked good and he's sporting an 8.50 K/BB right now. Olsen has been pitching just a few days longer but looks to be third in the rotation going into the second half:

Jul 11 Burnett will start the Marlins' first game after the All-Star break, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports.

Recommendation: He'll be followed by Brian Moehler, rookie Scott Olsen and Dontrelle Willis. A decision on who takes the fifth turn is pending, but Al Leiter would be the default option.


Any thoughts on both?
orange12
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 379
(Past Year: -2)
Joined: 18 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby AT » Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:19 pm

They both look great but given that they're so young they should have their share of tough outings. If you're out of the race in your keeper leagues I think they're great guys to trade a veteran bat for.
AT
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3645
(Past Year: -275)
Joined: 23 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: On Parole

Postby jskidder » Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:53 pm

i like olsen over duke by a lot. duke is striking out about twice as many per 9 as he did in the minors, which makes no sense. he's a control pitcher, and we all know how rookies struggle with control from time to time. olsen, hnowever, is straight up overpowering. he should be better in the near future.
jskidder
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 385
Joined: 13 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Chicago

Postby stumpak » Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:54 pm

Rookie pitchers almost NEVER produce consistently. The best will have flashes of brilliance, but will achieve no where near their ceilings. Just look at Kazmir and Grienke--they are the two top prospects from last year, and they have been far from good options. Bonderman is a stud now, but how many inconsistent (and therefore crappy) seasons did he go through first? Or look at the very best of the 90s, Pedro, Johnson and Schilling: they would not exaclty have made brilliant fantasy options their first couple of years.

Guys like Kerry Wood and Doc Gooden come along very rarely; most high ceilign young pitchers are not worth touching in a single season league unless you are desperate.

Remember the excitement over Tim Stauffer a few months ago? The people who picked him up after those first few great starts got burned bad.
stumpak
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2724
(Past Year: -5)
Joined: 9 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Washington, DC

Postby Half Massed » Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:59 pm

stumpak wrote:Rookie pitchers almost NEVER produce consistently. The best will have flashes of brilliance, but will achieve no where near their ceilings. Just look at Kazmir and Grienke--they are the two top prospects from last year, and they have been far from good options. Bonderman is a stud now, but how many inconsistent (and therefore crappy) seasons did he go through first? Or look at the very best of the 90s, Pedro, Johnson and Schilling: they would not exaclty have made brilliant fantasy options their first couple of years.

Guys like Kerry Wood and Doc Gooden come along very rarely; most high ceilign young pitchers are not worth touching in a single season league unless you are desperate.

Remember the excitement over Tim Stauffer a few months ago? The people who picked him up after those first few great starts got burned bad.


this is good advice to follow in a single season league. let someone else be sold by "potential" without a long enough playing time to have it be realized. the newness of the surroundings for a rookie pitcher, plus all that stuff about pressure and the like, contribute to their inconsistancy. even good rookies who have been having good years, such as haren, have struggled through inconsistancy on the season. there are better options in a single season league out there. as for keeper, these type of guys are guys you definitally want to own.
Image
Half Massed
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 3978
(Past Year: -106)
Joined: 27 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Busting ghosts

Postby mikegp » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:00 pm

stumpak wrote:Rookie pitchers almost NEVER produce consistently. The best will have flashes of brilliance, but will achieve no where near their ceilings. Just look at Kazmir and Grienke--they are the two top prospects from last year, and they have been far from good options. Bonderman is a stud now, but how many inconsistent (and therefore crappy) seasons did he go through first? Or look at the very best of the 90s, Pedro, Johnson and Schilling: they would not exaclty have made brilliant fantasy options their first couple of years.

Guys like Kerry Wood and Doc Gooden come along very rarely; most high ceilign young pitchers are not worth touching in a single season league unless you are desperate.

Remember the excitement over Tim Stauffer a few months ago? The people who picked him up after those first few great starts got burned bad.


That's pretty much right. Duke and Olsen will both be great or at least better than average in the future(barring injuries), but right now their initial success is most likely attributed to the fact that hitters have never faced him before. However, once players start to get scouting reports on Duke his K rate WILL drop and his ERA will rise. When that happens, it's Duke's job to adjust to the hitters and read scouting reports on them.
mikegp
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1638
(Past Year: -7)
Joined: 23 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Toronto, Canada

Postby Yoda » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:05 pm

stumpak wrote:Rookie pitchers almost NEVER produce consistently. The best will have flashes of brilliance, but will achieve no where near their ceilings. Just look at Kazmir and Grienke--they are the two top prospects from last year, and they have been far from good options. Bonderman is a stud now, but how many inconsistent (and therefore crappy) seasons did he go through first? Or look at the very best of the 90s, Pedro, Johnson and Schilling: they would not exaclty have made brilliant fantasy options their first couple of years.

Guys like Kerry Wood and Doc Gooden come along very rarely; most high ceilign young pitchers are not worth touching in a single season league unless you are desperate.

Remember the excitement over Tim Stauffer a few months ago? The people who picked him up after those first few great starts got burned bad.


BUt it's the ones that pan out that intrigue us: Prior, Oswalt, Ankiel, Willis, etc. were all VERY good in their rookie season. Do I think that anyone will turn out to be that good? Possibly.

I like Olsen a lot. He's made steady progress and has improved his numbers upon promotion. He's holding his own so far and the stuff is there. Pitches in a pitcher friendly park and on a pretty good team so I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 3.50 ERA with plenty of Ks and Ws.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21191
(Past Year: -153)
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests

cron